Jurassic Pet followed a win four starts back with a fourth three starts ago and a third after that, and she's rated 89 by us, fourth of eight. The main risk is a 198-day absence, plus 168 lb on her back and an unplaced run last time out.
Form last 61/430-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
90SR89RPR97OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 90 suggests ability but 4/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Crafty Gael arrives in cracking heart, a winner last time out, then a second two starts back and a third three starts back, and 21 days since that win looks ideal for fitness. He has run on today's going, though 166 lb is a hefty burden, and our rating of 89 has him third of eight.
Form last 608-321
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
91SR89RPR95OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 91 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Ol Parson is yet to win in his last five, with a second five starts back his best effort and a sixth and a ninth since, while a 64-day break adds fitness doubts. He has run on today's going, but 166 lb is a stiff ask off a mark of 95.
Form last 62-4960
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
75SR81RPR95OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 75 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Daaris arrives fresh off a third last time out, having also finished third five starts back and again four starts back, and he's had 21 days to recover while showing he handles today's going. Yet to win in his last five, he still has to carry 162 lb, which is the one real concern.
Form last 6334/83
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
77SR91RPR91OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 77 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Cappa Lass is yet to win in her last four starts and was pulled up last time out, after an eighth and a seventh before that, so she has plenty to prove. Lightly raced and unexposed, she returns after 27 days carrying 149 lb, off an official mark of 78.
Form last 6/67-8P
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
61SR—RPR78OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 61 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
Booked a third last time out just 11 days ago, Captain Connor is fit and has run on today's going, while our rating of 89 ranks him second of eight; the risk is he's yet to win in his last five starts and carries 148 lb.
Form last 6-78273
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
76SR89RPR81OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 76 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Athena's Dream was beaten into ninth last time out and is winless in her last five, which makes her hard to fancy, though a second two starts back and a third four starts back show she can get involved. She has run over today's trip and going, but 148 lb is a big ask, and our figures rank her sixth of eight.
Form last 6-23529
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
69SR80RPR81OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Could Be You is hard to fancy, winless in his last five, with an eighth last time out, a fall two starts back and a pulled up four runs ago. He has run on today's going and returns after 21 days, but 147 lb looks a big ask off 76.
Form last 60P9-F8
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
62SR68RPR76OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 62 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Crafty Gael owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (51) and market confidence (93). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
6/4Olly MurphySean Bowen
67%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Jurassic Pet
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
9/2 · Sara Bradstock✓ Value Signal
Athena's Dream
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
16/1 · Harriet Dickin◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Jurassic Pet (SR:90, 4/1) leads the field on ability and carries the most compelling market signal — a 45% inward move from opening price is substantial and suggests stable confidence in a small 8-runner field. Despite top-weight at 12-0, the SR advantage over rivals is meaningful: only Crafty Gael (SR:91) matches it on that metric, but Crafty Gael has drifted 14% and is running off a mark +6lb above last win, creating a penalty problem. Sara Bradstock (22% strike rate, 40 runners) is a selective operator whose runners command attention when Nico de Boinville takes the ride — de Boinville books at 26% and doesn't waste his time on hopeless causes at Southwell. The form string 1/430- has a gap but the 45% market compression over a race run at 3m on Good ground at Class 5 is the dominant signal here.
Each-way alternative: Crafty Gael.
Main danger: Crafty Gael — Crafty Gael (SR:91, 13/8) is the highest-rated horse in the field, Olly Murphy's yard strikes at 24% with Sean Bowen aboard at 24%, and the recent form 08-321 shows a sharp upward trajectory — the drift from favourite may reflect the +6 mark penalty rather than stable doubt, and if the weight burden is manageable at 11-12, it retains a live chance.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Form string 1/430- shows a blank last run (the '-' indicates a non-completion or pulled up) and the '430' sequence includes a fall/unseated — poor recent jumping form is a red flag over 3m at Southwe…
Top-weight of 12-0 in a Class 5 handicap is a concrete burden; conceding 6lb+ to most rivals including the favourite Crafty Gael (SR:91, better recent form 08-321) over a stamina-testing 3m.
The 'HG:t' headgear notation indicates a tongue-tie, suggesting the horse has had wind or breathing concerns that warranted intervention — not a sign of a horse in straightforward good health.
The 45% market move from a likely very wide opening price in an 8-runner field can reflect a single commission rather than broad market confidence; at 4/1 it still trails Crafty Gael (13/8) which the…