← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Weatherbys Nhstallions.co.uk Conditional Jockeys' Training Series Handicap Hurdle Race
Mr Fox’s call
Crack Ops
SPECULATIVE Advised 13/8 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Crack Ops (SR 111, 13/8) is the class leader in this small field and the only horse with a GoingFit:+ on today's good ground, which is a meaningful edge when every rival is only moderate (GoingFit:~). The recent form string 6322-1 shows a last-time-out win after a period of placed consistency, and at age 4 this horse is the most likely improver in the field. Yes, it steps up a class (ClassMv:↑1) and carries top weight at 12-0 off a mark 7lb higher than at that last win, and it has drifted 7% in the market — concerns worth noting — but the SR advantage of 7 points over Rock Hurley and 10 over Spot On Soph, combined with the confirmed going preference, makes it the most credible winner. The drift is the main reservation, but in a four-runner field with no standout danger, the SR and going edge outweigh it. Each-way alternative: Rock Hurley. Main danger: Rock Hurley — Rock Hurley (SR 104, 5/2) is race-fit at 23 days since last run, carries 1lb less than Crack Ops, is trained by Donald McCain who delivers at 15% and has a conditional jockey claiming 8lb — that real weight relief off 11-11 could neutralise Crack Ops's class edge entirely.
Full result
Winner: Spot On Soph (IRE) at SP 5/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Spot On Soph Fox #3 7/2
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2
Crack Ops Fox #1 5/4
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Rock Hurley Fox #2 15/8
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Italian Spirit 14/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Crack Ops 13/8 🥈 2ND
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2
Rock Hurley 5/2
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3
Spot On Soph 5/2 SP 5/2 🏆 WON