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Racing TV Nursery Handicap
Mr Fox’s call
Cromane
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/6 Est. 42%
Mr Fox says
Cromane (SR 74, 5/6) is the clear class leader in this field by a significant margin — 13 SR points clear of the next-best trio — and the form string 5701 is notably encouraging: a last-time-out win 14 days ago suggests peak freshness and current form. Top-weight of 10-2 is a concern in principle, but at 2yo nursery level the weight spread is modest and SR 74 simply dominates. The trainer Joseph G Murphy (12% strike rate, 387 runners) is a solid yard, and while jockey Carroll's 10% strike rate is workmanlike, the horse's ability level more than compensates. The market's 5/6 favouritism is justified by the SR dominance; the only caveat is MarkMv:+7 suggesting this run is off a 7lb higher mark than at last win, but given the class of opposition that rise is manageable. Each-way alternative: Green Sparkle. Main danger: Green Sparkle — Green Sparkle (SR 61, 13/2) has steamed in 36% in the market — the most significant market move in the field — trained by Joseph Patrick O'Brien (16% strike rate, the strongest yard represented), carries a favourable 9-6, and the money arriving after a 44-day break suggests connections are confident the horse is cherry-ripe for this trip.
Full result
Winner: Sister Nancy (IRE) at SP 2/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Sister Nancy Fox #3 4/1
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2
Cromane Fox #1 13/8
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3
Dropping Dimes 18/1
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4
Green Sparkle Fox #2 4/1
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5
Violet Be Humble 6/1
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Ippy 13/2
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Scarlet Dream 14/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3