Bluegrass Horse Feed Handicap

14:10 Bellewstown Thu 01 Oct 2026 7f195y Good 9 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Big Bill

SPECULATIVE Advised 7/2 SP 4/1 Est. 32%

🏆 WON

Mr Fox says

Big Bill (SR:55, 7/2) carries the most compelling signal combination in this field: a 37% market move inward is exceptional and suggests connections have strong confidence on first-time headgear (cheekpieces). At 9-12 he sits just 2lb below top-weight Nephin Mountain (SR:62) yet holds a 7-point SR gap on most rivals below. His DistFit:? and GoingFit:? mean absence of negative evidence on trip and ground rather than proven weakness, unlike the majority of this field who carry explicit DistFit:- and GoingFit:- flags. Trainer Aidan Melia hits at 14% (the strongest yard strike rate in the race) and Reese Holohan at 11% is a competent apprentice booking consistent with a horse fancied to go close. Each-way alternative: Nephin Mountain. Main danger: Nephin Mountain — Nephin Mountain holds the field's highest SR at 62 and is the Mulvany yard's nominated number one runner (Stable:1 with the senior jockey booking in Carroll), but the 20% drift, a GoingFit:- flag, and a MarkMv:+5 running off a career-high mark are genuine concerns that limit confidence despite the raw ability advantage.

Verify· #20811

Full result

Winner: Big Bill (FR) at SP 4/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

1 Big Bill Fox #1 Aidan Melia · Reese Holohan(5) 7/2
2 Arizona Star Michael Mulvany · Wesley Joyce 10/3
3 Glasarmi Fox #3 Rory Anthony Devine · Rory Mulligan(5) 13/2
4 Matties Point W. McCreery · W. J. Lee 10/1
5 Spiritofthedawn F G Hand · Robert Whearty 10/1
6 Nephin Mountain Fox #2 Michael Mulvany · G. F. Carroll 4/1
7 Glen Breeze Patrick Magee · Ben Coen 15/2
8 Thumama Sands Adrian McGuinness · Patrick McGettigan(5) 18/1
9 Stonyfalls Paul Traynor · Nicola Burns(5) 18/1

Top 4 — how each finished

1 Big Bill 7/2 SP 4/1 🏆 WON
2 Nephin Mountain 10/3 6TH
3 Glasarmi 5/1 🥉 3RD