← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Clonmel Handicap Hurdle
Mr Fox’s call
Vaureal
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/2 Est. 24%
Mr Fox says
Vaureal (SR 109, 7/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field by a clear margin and returns off a 116-day break following a last-time-out win, with a MarkMv:-9 indicating he runs off a mark 9lb below his last winning mark — a tangible advantage. Keith Donoghue's booking (13% career strike rate, 1300 runners) is significantly stronger than any other jockey in this field and signals the yard's #1 intention in the Donoghue stable. Although GoingFit:- is a concern on good ground and DistFit:? flags an untested trip, the SR superiority (SR 109 vs nearest rival Dairy Force at SR 100) and the drop in effective mark outweigh these reservations. The market drift of 16% is noted but in a modest €7,200 prize handicap, yard confidence expressed through the jockey booking carries more weight than early-market money. Each-way alternative: Dairy Force. Main danger: Dairy Force — Dairy Force (SR 100, 10/3) is the shortest-priced runner, trained by Gordon Elliott (18% strike rate, 4022 runners — the strongest trainer in the field), was out just 13 days ago showing peak fitness, and holds a Course:W0P1 course placing alongside GoingFit:~ suggesting reasonable ground compatibility, making him the most credible threat to Vaureal despite the SR gap.
Full result
Winner: Dairy Force (IRE) at SP 11/4F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Dairy Force Fox #2 3/1
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2
Kome Dans Un Reve 33/1
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3
Silly Mongoose 20/1
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4
Nelson Muntz Fox #3 13/2
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5
Champagne Dawn 18/1
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5
Max Meridius Fox #4 4/1
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7
Stepdance 22/1
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8
Earthwatch 18/1
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9
Home By The Sea 9/1
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10
St Denis's Well 20/1
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11
Vaureal Fox #1 7/2
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12
Kazakh d'Arthel 9/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Vaureal 7/2 11TH
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2
Dairy Force 10/3 SP 11/4F 🏆 WON
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3
Nelson Muntz 11/2 🏁 4TH
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4
Max Meridius 11/2 5TH