Clonmel 13:49 RESULTED
1 Oct 2026

Last Thursday Clonmel Handicap Hurdle

Clonmel Handicap Hurdle · 2m0f166y

Official Result

Clonmel Handicap Hurdle

Confirmed
  1. Winner Dairy Force (IRE) James Smith · Gordon Elliott
    11/4F
  2. 25/1
  3. 18/1
AI ExplorerBETA Deep analytics
Race picker

Switch race

Big race Sun 4 Oct Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe ParisLongchamp · 15:05

Bellewstown

13:00–17:05 · 8 races

Nottingham

13:23–16:50 · 7 races

Salisbury

13:30–17:25 · 8 races

Clonmel

13:49–17:17 · 7 races

Southwell

14:15–17:10 · 6 races

Newcastle (AW)

17:00–20:30 · 8 races

Recently viewed

Settled
  • 12 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 2 days, 1 hour ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
St Denis's Well silks
St Denis's Well
Age 8 · 12-2
16P29-
114
79
116
8
12-2
★☆☆☆☆
—
20/1 12/1 20/1
St Denis's Well has run over today's trip and on this going, and he was second two starts back, while his 116 rating ranks him second of 12 and carrying 170 lb off 114 is no small ask. The main risk is a 186-day absence following a ninth last time out.
AI verdict

SR 79 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

2
Nelson Muntz silks
Nelson Muntz
Age 7 · 12-1
430-56
113
102
114
7
12-1
★★☆☆☆
—
13/2 5/1 6/1
Nelson Muntz has run over today's trip and going before, and a third four starts back shows he can be competitive, while our rating of 114 ranks him third of twelve. The main risk is an 83-day absence, with a sixth last time out and yet to win in his last five.
AI verdict

SR 102 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Stepdance silks
Stepdance
Age 6 · 11-11
558-P
109
81
102
6
11-11
★★☆☆☆
—
22/1 11/1 22/1
Pulled up last time out and without a win in her last four, Stepdance is hard to fancy, with an eighth two starts back and a pair of fifths before that. She has run over today's trip and going and is rated 102 by us, but 165 lb is a big burden.
AI verdict

SR 81 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Dairy Force silks
Dairy Force
Age 7 · 11-7
253F62
105
100
108
7
11-7
★★★☆☆
—
3/1
Dairy Force arrives fit after a second last time out just 13 days ago, and he has run over today's trip and going before, while a mark of 105 looks workable on 161 lb. The main risk is a yard out of form, with just 2 from 38 in the last fortnight.
AI verdict

SR 100 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Vaureal silks
Vaureal
Age 7 · 11-7
5425-1
105
109
124
7
11-7
★★★☆☆
—
7/2 11/4 10/3
Vaureal arrives a LTO winner, having also finished second three starts back, and has run over today's trip and on this going before. Our top-rated runner carries 161 lb off an official mark of 105, though 116 days off is the one question.
AI verdict

SR 109 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Kazakh d'Arthel silks
Kazakh d'Arthel
Age 6 · 11-4
4F-089
102
85
108
6
11-4
★☆☆☆☆
—
9/1 17/2 15/2
Kazakh d'Arthel has run over today's trip and on the going, but he's yet to win in his last five, with a ninth last time out and an eighth two starts back. Carrying 158 lb off 102 after 34 days off, he looks a midfield type, though our rating of 108 offers some hope.
AI verdict

SR 85 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 12/1.

7
Earthwatch silks
Earthwatch
Age 4 · 11-3
4-4C46
102
83
103
4
11-3
★★☆☆☆
—
18/1 11/1 18/1
Earthwatch is winless in his last five, though three fourths and a sixth show he is usually in the mix, and he has run over today's trip and going after a fresh 15-day turnaround. Carrying 157 lb off 102, he looks held by the weight, and our rating of 103 ranks him eighth of twelve.
AI verdict

SR 83 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Silly Mongoose silks
Silly Mongoose
Age 5 · 11-2
0-5107
100
83
104
5
11-2
★☆☆☆☆
—
20/1 20/1 16/1
Silly Mongoose has run over today's trip and going and won three starts back, but he's been a seventh last time out, and unplaced the run before, after a 69-day break. Carrying 156 lb off an official mark of 100, he looks a midfield sort, with our rating of 104 placing him seventh of twelve.
AI verdict

SR 83 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.

9
Champagne Dawn silks
Champagne Dawn
Age 9 · 11-0
900P-7
98
74
105
9
11-0
★☆☆☆☆
—
18/1 20/1 12/1
Winless in his last five, Champagne Dawn was seventh last time out after being pulled up two starts back, and a 59-day break raises fitness questions. He has run over today's trip and going and our rating of 105 is a positive, though 154 lb is a big ask.
AI verdict

SR 74 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.

10
Home By The Sea silks
Home By The Sea
Age 6 · 10-12
-40650
96
88
96
6
10-12
★★☆☆☆
—
9/1
Winless in his last five, Home By The Sea was unplaced last time, a sixth three starts back and a fifth two starts back being the best of a modest recent run. He has run over today's trip and going and is fit after 12 days, but 152 lb is a big burden and our rating ranks him 11th of 12.
AI verdict

SR 88 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

11
Max Meridius silks
Max Meridius
Age 5 · 10-8
-05105
92
96
96
5
10-8
★★★☆☆
—
4/1 4/1 7/2
Max Meridius was fifth last time out and unplaced the run before, so the win three starts back looks a distant memory, and a 52-day break adds to the doubts. He has run over today's trip and going and our rating has him tenth of 12, but 148 lb is a big burden.
AI verdict

SR 96 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

12
Kome Dans Un Reve silks
Kome Dans Un Reve
Age 6 · 10-6
U8-060
90
59
83
6
10-6
★★☆☆☆
—
33/1 33/1 25/1
Winless in his last five, with an unplaced effort last time and a sixth two starts back the best of it, Kome Dans Un Reve is hard to fancy off 146 lb and an official mark of 90. He has run over today's trip and going, and 24 days since his last run is fair, but our ranking of 12 of 12 says plenty.
AI verdict

SR 59 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 St Denis's Well 20/1 open 13.00 25/1 open 17.00 22/1 open 15.00 22/1 open 15.00 22/1 open 15.00 22/1 open 17.00 25/1 Paddy Power
2 Nelson Muntz 13/2 open 8.00 6/1 open 8.00 13/2 open 8.00 13/2 open 8.00 13/2 open 8.00 6/1 open 6.00 13/2 Bet365
3 Stepdance 22/1 open 13.00 25/1 open 12.00 25/1 open 12.00 25/1 open 12.00 25/1 open 12.00 25/1 open 15.00 25/1 Paddy Power
4 Dairy Force 3/1 open 4.33 3/1 open 4.50 10/3 10/3 10/3 3/1 10/3 Coral
5 Vaureal 7/2 open 3.75 10/3 open 3.75 7/2 open 3.75 7/2 open 3.75 7/2 open 3.75 10/3 open 4.50 7/2 Bet365
6 Kazakh d'Arthel 9/1 open 12.00 9/1 open 9.50 9/1 9/1 15/2 open 10.00 17/2 open 10.00 9/1 Bet365
7 Earthwatch 18/1 open 12.00 22/1 open 15.00 25/1 open 13.00 25/1 open 13.00 22/1 open 13.00 22/1 open 17.00 25/1 Coral
8 Silly Mongoose 20/1 open 26.00 16/1 open 21.00 20/1 open 23.00 20/1 open 23.00 20/1 open 23.00 20/1 20/1 Bet365
9 Champagne Dawn 18/1 open 34.00 12/1 open 34.00 18/1 open 34.00 18/1 open 34.00 18/1 open 34.00 16/1 open 21.00 18/1 Bet365
10 Home By The Sea 9/1 10/1 10/1 10/1 11/1 open 11.00 10/1 11/1 William Hill
11 Max Meridius 4/1 open 6.00 7/2 open 5.00 4/1 open 5.50 4/1 open 5.50 7/2 open 5.50 7/2 open 6.50 4/1 Bet365
12 Kome Dans Un Reve 33/1 open 41.00 25/1 open 34.00 33/1 33/1 28/1 open 34.00 33/1 open 51.00 33/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Dairy Force

Live signal

Dairy Force owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (56) and market confidence (86). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

3/1 Gordon Elliott James Smith(5)
70% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Vaureal

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

7/2 · Ian Patrick Donoghue
✓ Value Signal

Stepdance

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

22/1 · Henry de Bromhead
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
56 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +21.1 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
86 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +19.0 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Speculative
46 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.7 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
44 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.4 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
62 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +6.2 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
57 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.5 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 4. Dairy Force
61.8 3/1
2 5. Vaureal
59.2 7/2
3 11. Max Meridius
56.9 4/1
4 2. Nelson Muntz
54.8 13/2
5 10. Home By The Sea
52.7 9/1
YOUR DECISION

See your angle before you make your move

Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.

🐾 Your pick
No horse picked yet
Voting open now

Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.

Choose your horse →
🤖 AI view
Vaureal
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

4
Age 7 · 11-7
3/1
★★★☆☆ SR 100 🐾 —

SR 100 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 7 · 11-7
7/2
★★★☆☆ SR 109 🐾 —

SR 109 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

11
Age 5 · 10-8
4/1
★★★☆☆ SR 96 🐾 —

SR 96 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 7 · 12-1
13/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 102 🐾 —

SR 102 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Age 6 · 11-4
9/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 85 🐾 —

SR 85 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 12/1.

10
Age 6 · 10-12
9/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 88 🐾 —

SR 88 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 4 · 11-3
18/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 83 🐾 —

SR 83 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Age 9 · 11-0
18/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 74 🐾 —

SR 74 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.

1
Age 8 · 12-2
20/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 79 🐾 —

SR 79 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

8
Age 5 · 11-2
20/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 83 🐾 —

SR 83 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Vaureal
Confidence: Speculative

Vaureal (SR 109, 7/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field by a clear margin and returns off a 116-day break following a last-time-out win, with a MarkMv:-9 indicating he runs off a mark 9lb below his last winning mark — a tangible advantage. Keith Donoghue's booking (13% career strike rate, 1300 runners) is significantly stronger than any other jockey in this field and signals the yard's #1 intention in the Donoghue stable. Although GoingFit:- is a concern on good ground and DistFit:? flags an untested trip, the SR superiority (SR 109 vs nearest rival Dairy Force at SR 100) and the drop in effective mark outweigh these reservations. The market drift of 16% is noted but in a modest €7,200 prize handicap, yard confidence expressed through the jockey booking carries more weight than early-market money. Each-way alternative: Dairy Force. Main danger: Dairy Force — Dairy Force (SR 100, 10/3) is the shortest-priced runner, trained by Gordon Elliott (18% strike rate, 4022 runners — the strongest trainer in the field), was out just 13 days ago showing peak fitness, and holds a Course:W0P1 course placing alongside GoingFit:~ suggesting reasonable ground compatibility, making him the most credible threat to Vaureal despite the SR gap.

Case against 4 clamped
  • 116-day absence with GoingFit:- flags Vaureal as unproven on today's good ground — his last win may have come on softer, making the layoff return on this surface a genuine risk.
  • DistFit:? means the trip is untested; in a competitive handicap even a 9lb pull in the weights can be negated if the horse is unsuited to the distance.
  • Market drifted 16% despite the yard's supposed stable confidence signal — in a small €7,200 prize race, that outward move from informed early money is a concrete red flag against Donoghue yard readin…
  • Dairy Force (SR 100, Gordon Elliott 18% trainer strike rate, 13-day freshness, Cian Quirke booking) represents a live danger only 9lb worse off yet trained by a handler whose strike rate (18%) dwarfs…
Shortlist Vaureal, Dairy Force, Nelson Muntz, Max Meridius
Each-way: Dairy Force Danger: Dairy Force

🗺 The Course Race conditions

2m0f166y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
12 Confirmed runners
Clonmel Track and setting