← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Lee "Bazza" Jenkinson Memorial Handicap Steeple Chase
Mr Fox’s call
Ballydangan
SPECULATIVE Advised 17/2 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Ballydangan (SR 69, 17/2) is the most compelling case despite a modest SR, driven by two overlapping signals that carry genuine weight: a Course:W2P4 record at Hexham showing proven track specialist ability, and a market move of Mkt:in33% — the sharpest steam in this field by a wide margin, suggesting informed money is backing it emphatically. The MarkMv:-4 mark drop aids the case, and while GoingFit:- is a concern, good ground is not as extreme a variant as soft/heavy. At 17/2 with 33% market support, the connections signal is too strong to ignore in a weak Class 5 field of seven. Each-way alternative: Uncle Al. Main danger: Uncle Al — Uncle Al (SR 78, 11/2) holds DistFit:+ at today's 3m trip, has Course:W0P1 at Hexham, GoingFit:~ suggests moderate ground tolerance, and jockey Paul O'Brien's 15% career strike rate gives genuine competence in the saddle — a form line of P163U2 shows a placed effort recently and the price represents fair value.
Full result
Winner: Stay Hopeful (IRE) at SP 10/11F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Stay Hopeful 5/6
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2
Deadheat 9/1
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3
Uncle Al Fox #2 5/1
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4
Super Citizen 12/1
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5
Lights Are Green Fox #3 8/1
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6
Croagh Patrick 25/1
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7
Ballydangan Fox #1 11/1
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Valette -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Ballydangan 17/2 7TH
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2
Uncle Al 11/2 🥉 3RD
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3
Lights Are Green 15/2 5TH