← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Star Appeal Stakes (Listed)
Mr Fox’s call
South Dakota
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/2 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
South Dakota (SR:108, 7/2) holds the highest Saturday Rating in the field and brings a confirmed going preference (GoingFit:+) on today's Good ground — the only runner in the field with that explicit confirmation. The form string 44331 shows a progressive juvenile peaking at the right time, the last run a win at the same class (ClassMv:=), and the market has moved in sharply by 22%, the second-largest move in the field. Aidan O'Brien's yard (22% strike rate from 1,316 runners) sends Wayne Lordan (16% career strike rate, 950 runners), the stronger booking versus stablemate Aachen's Declan McDonogh (9%, 1,274) — a clear signal that South Dakota is the yard's number one. DistFit:~ is the only mild caution at 7f, but the going edge and market confidence override that concern. Each-way alternative: Salt Lake. Main danger: Salt Lake — Salt Lake (SR:103, 11/4 favourite) carries a 21 form of two runs — a win and a place — with a 9% market move in since opening, and at the industry's current market leader price it is clearly respected as the most likely winner by the layers despite the small sample of experience.
Full result
Winner: Joga Bonito (GB) at SP 11/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Joga Bonito Fox #3 5/1
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2
Salt Lake Fox #2 2/1
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3
Dee's Funny Girl 6/1
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4
Nicely 8/1
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5
One Number Fox #4 10/1
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6
Fighting Tears 50/1
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7
South Dakota Fox #1 10/3
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8
Zoar 40/1
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9
Duidin 28/1
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10
Equus Victor 25/1
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—
Aachen 15/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
South Dakota 7/2 7TH
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2
Salt Lake 11/4 🥈 2ND
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3
Joga Bonito 5/1 SP 11/2 🏆 WON
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4
One Number 9/1 5TH