Aachen filed a third last time out and has run over today's trip and going, but he's been off 48 days, is yet to win in his recent form and carries 131 lb from stall four. Rated 70 and ranked 11 of 11 on our figures, he's hard to fancy.
Form last 63
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
67SR70RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 67 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Duidin arrives with back-to-back wins, last time out and two starts back, and has run over today's trip and going, but a 95-day break raises fitness doubts. Our rating of 88 ranks him eighth of 11, and he carries 131 lb from stall one.
Form last 63811
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
74SR88RPR87OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 74 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Equus Victor won last time out and has run over today's trip and going, but that came after a fourth and a fifth, and 131 lb off an official 90 looks a lot to carry. Our rating of 82 ranks him tenth of 11, so he is hard to fancy from stall 3.
Form last 6541
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
63SR82RPR90OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 63 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Joga Bonito arrives in cracking form, runner-up last time out, a winner two starts back, and a third three starts back, and he has run over today's trip before. Our rating of 101 ranks him second of 11, but 131 lb off an official 93 is the main risk.
Form last 642312
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
105SR101RPR93OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 105 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
One Number won two starts back and has a third and a second in his last six, but he was only seventh last time out, and he has run over today's trip and going before. Carrying 131 lb from stall eight, his 97 rating ranks fifth of eleven, which fits a midfield profile.
Form last 6203517
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
97SR97RPR97OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 97 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Salt Lake arrives in good heart, winning last time out after a second two starts back, and he's fresh enough off a 15-day break while having run over today's trip. Carrying 131 lb from draw 5, he's ranked sixth of 11 on our rating, which suggests the weight could stretch him.
Form last 621
★AI Rating★★★★☆
103SR95RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Favourable weight of 9-5 gives a real edge in this handicap.
South Dakota won last time out and was third on each of the two starts before that, so he arrives in solid form after 32 days off, and he has run over today's trip. Carrying 131 lb from stall 11, the main risk is that the weight leaves him little margin against his rivals.
Form last 644331
★AI Rating★★★★☆
108SR99RPR98OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Favourable weight of 9-5 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Zoar's recent form reads well, with a third last time out, a win two starts back and a second three starts back, and he has run over today's trip. However, our rating of 84 ranks him ninth of 11, and carrying 131 lb off an official mark of 89 makes him hard to fancy.
Form last 6213
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
69SR84RPR89OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Dee's Funny Girl showed she can win with a victory four starts back and a second two runs ago, and she has run over today's trip before. Our top-rated runner at 103 is the one to beat, though a sixth last time out and 40 days off are small reservations from draw 9.
Form last 61626
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
106SR103RPR99OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 106 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Fighting Tears followed a win two starts back with a sixth last time out just 11 days ago, so she's fit and has run over today's trip. Carrying 126 lb from stall 10, she looks a midfield sort, ranked seventh of 11 on our rating.
Form last 616
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
69SR90RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Nicely has two wins in her last five starts, including a victory two starts back, and she returned a fourth last time out, while having run over today's trip before. Our rating of 98 backs her as a leading danger, though the main risk is that she hasn't won since that effort.
Form last 621614
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
97SR99RPR94OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 97 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Joga Bonito owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (58) and market confidence (77). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
5/1P. TwomeyW. J. Lee
65%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Salt Lake
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
2/1 · Robson De Aguiar✓ Value Signal
Zoar
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
40/1 · Donnacha Aidan O'Brien◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
South Dakota (SR:108, 7/2) holds the highest Saturday Rating in the field and brings a confirmed going preference (GoingFit:+) on today's Good ground — the only runner in the field with that explicit confirmation. The form string 44331 shows a progressive juvenile peaking at the right time, the last run a win at the same class (ClassMv:=), and the market has moved in sharply by 22%, the second-largest move in the field. Aidan O'Brien's yard (22% strike rate from 1,316 runners) sends Wayne Lordan (16% career strike rate, 950 runners), the stronger booking versus stablemate Aachen's Declan McDonogh (9%, 1,274) — a clear signal that South Dakota is the yard's number one. DistFit:~ is the only mild caution at 7f, but the going edge and market confidence override that concern.
Each-way alternative: Salt Lake.
Main danger: Salt Lake — Salt Lake (SR:103, 11/4 favourite) carries a 21 form of two runs — a win and a place — with a 9% market move in since opening, and at the industry's current market leader price it is clearly respected as the most likely winner by the layers despite the small sample of experience.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
DistFit:~ flags a genuine query at 7f — South Dakota's two wins came at shorter trips, and stretching to this distance on an AW oval like Dundalk could expose a stamina limitation against rivals alre…
Salt Lake (SR:103, 11/4) is the market leader despite a lower SR, has run just twice with a win and a runner-up, and the market has installed it shorter than South Dakota — suggesting shrewd money di…
Joga Bonito (SR:105) brings Patrick Twomey's 24% strike rate — higher than O'Brien's 22% — with W.J. Lee aboard (15%) and a MarkMv:+14 move, making it a well-backed market rival that finished second…
The form string 44331 shows South Dakota only recently broke its duck after back-to-back fourths; last win was at the same class but may simply reflect a weak race rather than genuine progression, wi…
ShortlistSouth Dakota, Salt Lake, Joga Bonito, One Number