← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap
Mr Fox’s call
Aviatrice
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/4 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Aviatrice (SR 92, 7/4) is the class leader in this six-runner field and holds the most compelling course profile with 3 wins and 5 places at Dundalk — a genuine specialist on this track. Both DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ confirm she handles this exact conditions profile, and jockey W.J. Lee (15%, 1888 runners) is a meaningful upgrade in experience. The MarkMv:+4 is a mild concern, but a 10-0 topweight is manageable in a small field where rivals are materially weaker on SR. Bear On The Run (SR 95) edges her on raw SR but has drifted 24% in the market with a very short eight-day turnaround — the market is clearly uncomfortable with that runner, and Aviatrice's Dundalk dominance gives her a concrete circuit edge the figures alone don't capture. Each-way alternative: Glitter And Glory. Main danger: Bear On The Run — Bear On The Run holds a 3-point SR advantage (95 vs 92), carries 8lb less than Aviatrice at 9-6, and has course form (W1P1) — if the 24% drift is simply market liquidity noise rather than an insider negative, the weight-adjusted ability edge could be decisive.
Full result
Winner: Mallavelly (IRE) at SP 4/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Mallavelly Fox #4 9/2
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2
Aviatrice Fox #1 13/8
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3
Temperance 18/1
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4
All The Girls 11/2
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5
Bear On The Run Fox #2 7/2
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Glitter And Glory Fox #3 8/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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