← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Paddy Monaghan 90th Birthday Handicap Hurdle
Mr Fox’s call
Come On The Lads
SPECULATIVE Advised 15/2 Est. 24%
Mr Fox says
Come On The Lads (SR:104, 15/2) is the most compelling case in the field when signals are stacked. The Mkt:in38% move is the loudest single market signal in the race — Gavin Cromwell's yard (11% strike rate, 3,182 runners of experience) clearly fancies this, and Keith Donoghue at 13% wins is a quality booking. Running off a mark only 1lb above last win (MarkMv:+1), which is essentially the same mark — not penalised. Carries 11-10, which is lighter than the top two weights and gives a real lbs edge. GoingFit:~ is moderate rather than ideal on good ground, but the headgear change (p) and the strong stable confidence override that moderate concern. Form 51-799 shows a win and a fifth from recent starts — the 799 sequence is mixed but context of the market move suggests connections see today as the right opportunity. Each-way alternative: Ocean Murphy. Main danger: Ocean Murphy — Ocean Murphy (SR:114, the highest in the field, 7/2 and steaming in 14%) carries only 10-7 — a significant weight concession from Come On The Lads — has GoingFit:+ on today's good ground, a form string ending in two consecutive wins (9121), and a young improving 4yo profile that could see the ability edge tell over 2m4f if the distance suits.
Full result
Winner: Nelson Muntz (IRE) at SP 9/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
-
1
Nelson Muntz 15/2
-
2
Lucy Wang 14/1
-
3
In For The Night Fox #4 9/1
-
4
Arctic Flame 17/2
-
5
Paradise Lost 9/2
-
6
Ocean Murphy Fox #2 5/2
-
7
Slane Hill 18/1
-
8
Brucejack 28/1
-
9
The Friday Man 40/1
-
10
Bop Wont Stop 25/1
-
11
Positive Thinker 40/1
-
12
Come On The Lads Fox #1 10/1
-
13
Plunkett Street 33/1
-
14
Ripsnorter 15/2
-
—
Katie Daniels 14/1
-
—
Jackmoon Fox #3 17/2
Top 4 — how each finished
-
1
Come On The Lads 15/2 12TH
-
2
Ocean Murphy 7/2 6TH
-
3
Jackmoon 7/1
-
4
In For The Night 7/1 🥉 3RD