← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Racing Tv Ebf Stallions Novice Stakes (gbb Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Green Star
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Green Star leads the field on SR (156) by a meaningful margin over Crystal Dark (151) and Bombora (147), and at 5/2 the market is broadly aligned with that ability edge. The Boughey yard runs at 18% strike rate — matching Bethell's — and Pat Cosgrave is a reliable booking at this level. Crucially, Green Star has NOT drifted (no Mkt:out flag), standing alone among the top-SR horses whose prices have all moved against them, suggesting no negative stable confidence issues. Dropping one class from its debut second gives it a form line of '2' off a higher-grade race, making this a straightforward class relief assignment on debut promise. Each-way alternative: Crystal Dark. Main danger: Crystal Dark — Crystal Dark's SR of 151 is the second-highest in the field, Bethell runs at 18% and Sam James at 14%, and a debut second at the same class level (ClassMv:=) shows it has already handled this grade — if the drift (out34%) reflects market noise rather than a genuine negative signal, it has the raw ability to reverse the SR gap on Green Star.
Full result
Winner: Charted Course (GB) at SP 6/4F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Charted Course 11/10
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2
Crystal Dark Fox #2 6/1
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3
Bombora Fox #3 7/1
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4
Green Star Fox #1 9/4
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5
Cagney 40/1
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6
Leabank 50/1
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7
Northern Crown 40/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3