← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Prohibition Bar Handicap Stakes (Div II)
Mr Fox’s call
Lady Hornblower
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/4 SP 85/40F Est. 30%
Mr Fox says
Lady Hornblower (SR:72, 9/4) holds the highest Saturday Rating in the field by a clear margin and is the only runner with a course win at Redcar (W1P1), confirming she handles the track. GoingFit:+ is the single best going indicator on today's good ground, and her recent form string 698371 shows a progressive climb to a last-time-out win. Despite running off a mark 4lb higher (MarkMv:+4), the weight advantage over Hostility — 8lb less to carry at 9-8 versus 10-0 — more than compensates, particularly against a top-weight whose market has drifted 10%. The market has drifted 23% which is a concern, but this likely reflects the higher mark rather than a genuine form doubt; the underlying evidence across SR, course, going and recent win is the strongest alignment in the race. Each-way alternative: Hostility. Main danger: Hostility — Hostility (SR:69, 5/1) is the second-highest rated runner with a trainer strike rate of 13% at a yard that fires at Redcar, and while the market has drifted 10%, the Course:W0P2 record shows consistent placing at this track — enough to finish second if Lady Hornblower fails to handle the higher mark.
Full result
Winner: Lady Hornblower (GB) at SP 85/40F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
-
1
Lady Hornblower Fox #1 9/4
-
2
Tommo's Ginjaninja 11/1
-
3
Hostility Fox #2 11/2
-
4
Recobella Fox #3 6/1
-
5
Alessia Fernanda 12/1
-
6
Kitsune Power 9/1
-
7
Kartini 15/2
-
8
Eagles Dream 14/1
-
9
Bay Dream Believer Fox #4 15/2
Top 4 — how each finished
-
1
Lady Hornblower 9/4 SP 85/40F 🏆 WON
-
2
Hostility 5/1 🥉 3RD
-
3
Recobella 15/2 🏁 4TH
-
4
Bay Dream Believer 7/1 9TH