← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Jack Duggan Memorial Handicap Hurdle
Mr Fox’s call
Smallcraftwarning
SPECULATIVE Advised 13/2 SP 4/1F Est. 22%
Mr Fox says
Smallcraftwarning (SR 110, 13/2) is the top-rated runner in the field and carries a favourable 10-3, the lightest weight among the leading contenders — a meaningful advantage over rivals lugging 11+ stone in a 3m handicap hurdle on good ground. The form string 051341 reads right-to-left as a horse that won last time out, and DistFit:+ confirms proven stamina at this trip, a critical qualifier over three miles where underprepared stayers are exposed. The market has shortened 18% since opening, signalling genuine confidence from connections, and trainer John Patrick Ryan's 8% strike rate across 1,115 runners suggests a competent stable that doesn't run horses without purpose. The only reservation is GoingFit:- which means the horse's best form may have come on softer surfaces — however, good ground at Gowran in October is unlikely to be truly testing, and the SR lead plus weight plus market support outweigh that concern. Each-way alternative: Butter Fingers. Main danger: Butter Fingers — Butter Fingers (SR 108, 15/2) has steamed 17% in the market, carries only 10-9, and the form string 36-172 shows a second last time out — live claims if the going-fit concern proves overstated on what may be a reasonable surface.
Full result
Winner: Smallcraftwarning (IRE) at SP 4/1F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Smallcraftwarning Fox #1 5/1
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2
Zoffman 13/2
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3
Cobra Queen Fox #3 5/1
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4
Jacovec Cavern 12/1
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5
My Trump Card 12/1
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6
Fad Eadrainn 7/1
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7
Butter Fingers Fox #2 6/1
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8
Moonovercloon 9/1
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9
Better Times 6/1
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10
Mordor Fox #4 12/1
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—
Born Braver 20/1
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Born Bright 18/1
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Lough Nigara 25/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Smallcraftwarning 13/2 SP 4/1F 🏆 WON
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2
Butter Fingers 15/2 7TH
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3
Cobra Queen 5/1 🥉 3RD
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4
Mordor 15/2 10TH