Gowran Park 14:30 RESULTED
3 Oct 2026

Today Jack Duggan Memorial Handicap Hurdle

Jack Duggan Memorial Handicap Hurdle · 3m0f0y

Official Result

Jack Duggan Memorial Handicap Hurdle

Confirmed
  1. Winner Smallcraftwarning (IRE) Daniel King · John Patrick Ryan
    4/1F
  2. Second Zoffman (IRE)
    13/2
  3. 5/1
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Settled
  • 13 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 42 minutes ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Born Braver silks
Born Braver
Age 8 · 11-12
2010P-
128
90
127
8
11-12
★☆☆☆☆
—
20/1 14/1 20/1
Born Braver is the one to beat on our numbers: he won three starts back and has run over today's trip and going before, and he carries 166 lb off a mark of 128. A pulled-up last time and 154 days off are concerns, though, with a stable out of form.
AI verdict

SR 90 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.

2
Cobra Queen silks
Cobra Queen
Age 7 · 11-8
-P8331
124
115
119
7
11-8
★★★☆☆
—
5/1 4/1 5/1
Cobra Queen won last time out and was third on her two runs before that, so she arrives in good heart after 22 days off, and she has run over today's trip. Carrying 162 lb off an official 124 is a lot to ask, though, and our rating has her only sixth of 13.
AI verdict

SR 115 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Fad Eadrainn silks
Fad Eadrainn
Age 8 · 11-8
0P354-
124
102
121
8
11-8
★★☆☆☆
—
7/1
Fad Eadrainn arrives with a fourth last time out, a fifth and a third in the starts before, and has run over today's trip and going, while our rating ranks him fourth of 13. The main risk is a 156-day absence, with 162 lb on his back too.
AI verdict

SR 102 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Mordor silks
Mordor
Age 6 · 11-8
1208/3
124
106
126
6
11-8
★★☆☆☆
—
12/1 4/1 11/1
Mordor warrants plenty of respect after a third last time out, and he has run over today's trip and going before, while our rating of 126 ranks him second of 13. The main risk is a big weight of 162 lb after 45 days off, with an eighth two starts back showing he can be inconsistent.
AI verdict

SR 106 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Jacovec Cavern silks
Jacovec Cavern
Age 7 · 11-4
1-23P6
120
103
120
7
11-4
★★☆☆☆
—
12/1 6/1 12/1
Jacovec Cavern bounced between a win five starts back and a third three starts back, then went a pulled up and a sixth last time out, so the recent trend is the worry. He has run over today's trip and going, but he returns after 56 days carrying 158 lb off 120, and our rating of 120 ranks him fifth of 13.
AI verdict

SR 103 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
My Trump Card silks
My Trump Card
Age 8 · 11-3
-06816
119
87
119
8
11-3
★★☆☆☆
—
12/1 22/1 12/1
Fresh from a sixth last time out just ten days ago, My Trump Card has a win two starts back and has run over today's trip and going, but he carries 157 lb and his yard is 0/29 in the last 14 days.
AI verdict

SR 87 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Zoffman silks
Zoffman
Age 7 · 11-0
4/84-0
116
106
118
7
11-0
★★☆☆☆
—
13/2 7/1 13/2
Zoffman is winless in his last four, though two fourths in that run and a return after 17 days keep him in the mix; he has run on today's going, but an unplaced effort last time, 154 lb and a stable struggling at 1/24 hold him back.
AI verdict

SR 106 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Moonovercloon silks
Moonovercloon
Age 9 · 10-11
47-0PF
113
103
123
9
10-11
★★☆☆☆
—
9/1 7/2 17/2
Moonovercloon has run over today's trip and going, and our rating of 123 ranks him third of 13, comfortably clear of his official 113 off 151 lb. The risk is obvious: he fell last time out and was pulled up the start before, so confidence is a question.
AI verdict

SR 103 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Butter Fingers silks
Butter Fingers
Age 5 · 10-9
36-172
111
108
112
5
10-9
★★★☆☆
—
6/1 15/2 6/1
Butter Fingers bounces back from a seventh two starts back with a second last time out, and he has won once in his last five, three starts back. He has run on today's going and had 29 days off, but 149 lb is a hefty burden and our rating ranks him ninth of 13.
AI verdict

SR 108 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

10
Born Bright silks
Born Bright
Age 7 · 10-8
14-34P
110
92
111
7
10-8
★☆☆☆☆
—
18/1 22/1 18/1
Born Bright was pulled up last time out and is back within seven days, which is hard to like, though she was fourth and third in the two runs before that, and she has run over today's trip and going. Carrying 148 lb and ranked tenth of 13 on our figures, she's a tough one to fancy.
AI verdict

SR 92 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.

11
Lough Nigara silks
Lough Nigara
Age 9 · 10-8
3121R-
110
95
103
9
10-8
★★☆☆☆
—
25/1 12/1 22/1
Lough Nigara refused last time out and returns after 188 days off, which makes him hard to fancy, particularly carrying 148 lb off 110. In his favour, he won two and four starts back and has run over today's trip and going before.
AI verdict

SR 95 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

12
Better Times silks
Better Times
Age 6 · 10-6
4U-478
108
96
109
6
10-6
★★☆☆☆
—
6/1 12/1 6/1
Better Times is hard to fancy, beaten into eighth last time and a seventh two starts back, and he is winless in his last five with an unseated in the mix. He has run over today's trip and going, and 22 days since his last run is fine, but 146 lb is a big ask.
AI verdict

SR 96 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

13
Smallcraftwarning silks
Smallcraftwarning
Age 9 · 10-3
051341
105
110
100
9
10-3
★★★☆☆
—
5/1 6/1 5/1
Winner last time out and again four starts back, Smallcraftwarning has a decent recent record, but he's back within five days and carries 143 lb off 105. He has run over today's trip and going, yet our figures rank him last of 13.
AI verdict

SR 110 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Born Braver 20/1 open 15.00 22/1 open 21.00 20/1 open 19.00 22/1 open 19.00 22/1 open 19.00 22/1 open 19.00 22/1 Paddy Power
2 Cobra Queen 5/1 open 5.00 11/2 open 5.00 5/1 open 5.00 5/1 open 5.00 5/1 open 5.00 5/1 open 5.00 11/2 Paddy Power
3 Fad Eadrainn 7/1 open 9.50 7/1 open 11.00 7/1 7/1 7/1 7/1 7/1 Bet365
4 Mordor 12/1 open 6.00 12/1 open 5.00 11/1 open 6.00 11/1 open 6.00 11/1 open 6.00 11/1 open 6.00 12/1 Bet365
5 Jacovec Cavern 12/1 open 11.00 14/1 open 7.00 12/1 open 9.00 12/1 open 9.00 12/1 open 9.00 12/1 open 9.00 14/1 Paddy Power
6 My Trump Card 12/1 open 23.00 12/1 open 34.00 12/1 open 29.00 12/1 open 29.00 12/1 open 29.00 12/1 open 29.00 12/1 Bet365
7 Zoffman 13/2 open 13.00 7/1 open 9.00 13/2 open 8.00 13/2 open 8.00 13/2 open 8.00 13/2 open 8.00 7/1 Paddy Power
8 Moonovercloon 9/1 open 5.50 9/1 open 4.50 17/2 open 6.00 17/2 open 6.00 17/2 open 6.00 17/2 open 6.00 9/1 Bet365
9 Butter Fingers 6/1 open 8.50 6/1 open 9.00 6/1 open 11.00 6/1 open 11.00 6/1 open 11.00 6/1 open 11.00 6/1 Bet365
10 Born Bright 18/1 open 23.00 18/1 open 26.00 18/1 open 26.00 18/1 open 26.00 18/1 open 26.00 18/1 open 26.00 18/1 Bet365
11 Lough Nigara 25/1 open 13.00 25/1 open 15.00 25/1 open 15.00 25/1 open 15.00 22/1 open 15.00 25/1 open 15.00 25/1 Bet365
12 Better Times 6/1 open 26.00 13/2 open 21.00 13/2 open 13.00 13/2 open 13.00 13/2 open 13.00 13/2 open 13.00 13/2 Paddy Power
13 Smallcraftwarning 5/1 open 9.00 5/1 open 15.00 5/1 open 7.00 5/1 open 7.00 5/1 open 7.00 5/1 open 7.00 5/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Smallcraftwarning

Live signal

Smallcraftwarning owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (61) and market confidence (77). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

5/1 John Patrick Ryan Daniel King
65% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Butter Fingers

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

6/1 · Ross O'Sullivan
✓ Value Signal

Lough Nigara

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

25/1 · Eoin Griffin
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Live signal
61 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +23.2 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence High conviction
77 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +16.9 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Speculative
47 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.5 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
52 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.2 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor High conviction
65 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +6.5 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
52 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.2 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 13. Smallcraftwarning
61.9 5/1
2 9. Butter Fingers
61.3 6/1
3 2. Cobra Queen
61.0 5/1
4 7. Zoffman
60.2 13/2
5 8. Moonovercloon
58.1 9/1
YOUR DECISION

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Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.

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🤖 AI view
Smallcraftwarning
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

2
Age 7 · 11-8
5/1
★★★☆☆ SR 115 🐾 —

SR 115 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

13
Age 9 · 10-3
5/1
★★★☆☆ SR 110 🐾 —

SR 110 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

9
Age 5 · 10-9
6/1
★★★☆☆ SR 108 🐾 —

SR 108 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

12
Age 6 · 10-6
6/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 96 🐾 —

SR 96 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 7 · 11-0
13/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 106 🐾 —

SR 106 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Age 8 · 11-8
7/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 102 🐾 —

SR 102 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Age 9 · 10-11
9/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 103 🐾 —

SR 103 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 6 · 11-8
12/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 106 🐾 —

SR 106 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Age 7 · 11-4
12/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 103 🐾 —

SR 103 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Age 8 · 11-3
12/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 87 🐾 —

SR 87 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Age 7 · 10-8
18/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 92 🐾 —

SR 92 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.

1
Age 8 · 11-12
20/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 90 🐾 —

SR 90 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Smallcraftwarning
Confidence: Speculative

Smallcraftwarning (SR 110, 13/2) is the top-rated runner in the field and carries a favourable 10-3, the lightest weight among the leading contenders — a meaningful advantage over rivals lugging 11+ stone in a 3m handicap hurdle on good ground. The form string 051341 reads right-to-left as a horse that won last time out, and DistFit:+ confirms proven stamina at this trip, a critical qualifier over three miles where underprepared stayers are exposed. The market has shortened 18% since opening, signalling genuine confidence from connections, and trainer John Patrick Ryan's 8% strike rate across 1,115 runners suggests a competent stable that doesn't run horses without purpose. The only reservation is GoingFit:- which means the horse's best form may have come on softer surfaces — however, good ground at Gowran in October is unlikely to be truly testing, and the SR lead plus weight plus market support outweigh that concern. Each-way alternative: Butter Fingers. Main danger: Butter Fingers — Butter Fingers (SR 108, 15/2) has steamed 17% in the market, carries only 10-9, and the form string 36-172 shows a second last time out — live claims if the going-fit concern proves overstated on what may be a reasonable surface.

Case against 4 clamped
  • GoingFit:- on good ground is a concrete negative — HG:t (turf only, no good-ground wins flagged) suggests best form on softer; Gowran in October can ride faster than expected after a dry spell.
  • Cobra Queen (SR:115) is rated 5lb superior and has been out just 22 days with fresher legs, representing a higher-class rival that Smallcraftwarning's weight advantage alone may not overcome.
  • At age 9 with only 5 days since last run, the quick turnaround could indicate a race over an already tired horse rather than peak freshness — no rest bounce available here.
  • Trainer John Patrick Ryan's 8% strike rate is among the lowest in the field; de Bromhead (16%) and Queally (18%) both saddle live rivals with significantly stronger handler profiles today.
Shortlist Smallcraftwarning, Butter Fingers, Cobra Queen, Mordor
Each-way: Butter Fingers Danger: Butter Fingers

🗺 The Course Race conditions

3m0f0y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
13 Confirmed runners
Gowran Park Track and setting