← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
SIS Supporting Irish Racing Beginners Steeplechase
Mr Fox’s call
I Started A Joke
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/4 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
I Started A Joke (SR:132, 11/4) is the highest-rated horse in the field that the market is actively backing — a 21% market shortening is a meaningful signal in a 12-runner beginners' chase where stable form can be opaque. His SR of 132 is the joint-highest in the field alongside nothing else above 129 that has market confidence, and at 11/4 he is reasonably priced given that edge. The form string 41233- shows consistent finishing and progressive chasing experience, and trainer C Byrnes at 12% with Philip Byrnes (11%) is a functional yard that doesn't load up a beginners' chase without a live chance. The absence of DistFit and GoingFit data is a minor concern but shared across most of the field, making it a neutral factor rather than a negative. Each-way alternative: Forty Coats. Main danger: Arcadian Emperor — Arcadian Emperor (SR:124) carries DistFit:+ — the only runner with a confirmed proven distance record — and is the Mullins yard's #1 by virtue of Harry Cobden booking, but the 15% drift and a 172-day absence with tongue-tie first applied means I Started A Joke is preferred; if Arcadian Emperor returns fit, that DistFit:+ edge over 2m4f on good ground is a genuine threat.
Full result
Winner: Sir Allen (GB) at SP 18/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Sir Allen 16/1
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2
Arcadian Emperor Fox #3 13/8
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3
Daydream Nation 20/1
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4
Leni's Law 80/1
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5
Siege Of Carthage 18/1
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Bon Viveur Fox #4 5/2
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Champagne Jury 22/1
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Forty Coats Fox #2 11/4
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Good Option SP
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I Started A Joke Fox #1 11/4
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Lemmy Caution 16/1
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Mullaghgloss 33/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
I Started A Joke 11/4
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2
Forty Coats 7/2
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3
Arcadian Emperor 5/2 🥈 2ND
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4
Bon Viveur 7/2