Newbury 15:30 11 Jun 2026
Class 3 11 Jun 2026

Today Ardonagh Group Handicap

Ardonagh Group Handicap · 7f

1648-Hr decs

Every runner. Every signal. One decision.

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  • 16 declared
  • 0 picked
AI rates Forty Years On Medium Saturday Draw Join free to vote Updated 3 hours, 21 minutes ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Consecrated silks
Consecrated
Age 4 · 9-10
4637-7
91
78
102
4
9-10
12/1
Won over C&D (good) last April on debut; hasn't really progressed and has finished merely seventh in 1m6f/1m2f Listed races on her last two starts (tailed off last time); however, it's possible this half-sister to connections' crack 6f/7f performer Sacred will appreciate the drop back in trip.
AI verdict

SR 78 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Nostrum silks
Nostrum
Age 6 · 9-9
000-02
90
85
99
6
9-9
7/1
Has considerable back-class (including on soft ground) and he's shown promise on both starts for this yard, most recently runner-up at Sandown (1m, good); high on the list on the back of that performance.
AI verdict

SR 85 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Brian silks
Brian
Age 4 · 9-9
97-087
90
82
107
4
9-9
10/1 FCST 17/2
Soundly beaten on final two runs last year (1m, AW) and same story on his three outings this spring (6f, AW/good/good to firm); arrives with something to prove but he's 5lb lower than when runner-up over C&D (soft) last October and the return to slow ground could facilitate a major revival.
AI verdict

SR 82 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Ata Rangi silks
Ata Rangi
Age 5 · 9-8
1755-1
89
91
103
5
9-8
11/2 FCST 5/1
Two wins last season (1m/7f, AW/good) and he added another on last month's reappearance at Haydock (7f, good); his best form has come on good ground but he's shown promise on a slow surface and this progressive 5yo could still have more to offer; respected.
AI verdict

SR 91 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Forty Years On silks
Forty Years On
Age 4 · 9-7
31112-
88
103
105
4
9-7
10/3 FCST 3/1
Close third on debut last March then won her next three, completing the hat-trick on handicap debut at Ascot (7f, soft) in September; head second at Southwell (7f, AW) 16 days later and the winner landed the Hambleton at York last month; makes reappearance and could prove to be well treated.
AI verdict

SR 103 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Spangled Mac silks
Spangled Mac
Age 7 · 9-7
-02300
88
76
99
7
9-7
16/1
7yo who was well beaten in Bahrain and at Chester on his last two starts; however, he was drawn wide at Chester and showed some good form in Bahrain in January; he's run really well on both previous attempts at this C&D and is not ruled out each-way off a competitive mark.
AI verdict

SR 76 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

7
Morte Point silks
Morte Point
Age 4 · 9-7
11-000
88
68
95
4
9-7
22/1 FCST 14/1
Three wins last August/October, the first over C&D (good); also effective on good to soft (unraced on softer); however, he's struggled on his three runs this spring; hopes pinned on wind op prompting dramatic turnaround.
AI verdict

SR 68 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.

8
Storm Free silks
Storm Free
Age 4 · 9-7
321-60
88
94
103
4
9-7
11/2 FCST 9/2
Well beaten in the Victoria Cup at Ascot (7f, good) last time but prior to that he made an encouraging reappearance at Newmarket (7f, good) and he won in a big field at Leicester (7f, good) last October; unraced on slow ground; this lightly raced 4yo retains potential and has first-time headgear.
AI verdict

SR 94 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

9
I'm Workin On It silks
I'm Workin On It
Age 4 · 9-5
114412
86
87
102
4
9-5
14/1
Made it 4-9 in AW handicaps when winning at Kempton (7f) last month and went close there next time (7f); key player if transferring his form back to grass; well beaten here on sole turf start but that was his debut back in September 2024.
AI verdict

SR 87 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
I Still Have Faith silks
I Still Have Faith
Age 6 · 9-4
826254
85
91
101
6
9-4
7/1 FCST 13/2
On a long losing sequence but twice went close on AW earlier this year and he was denied a clear run when 2l fourth of 11 at Newmarket (7f, good) last month; seems versatile ground-wise; might not be far away.
AI verdict

SR 91 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

11
Chalk Mountain silks
Chalk Mountain
Age 6 · 9-2
7471-1
83
92
103
6
9-2
11/1
Went very close in this last year (good) and, having ended 2025 with a win at Kempton (7f, AW), he reappeared with another there (7f) last month; he can be bang there if handling conditions (unproven on slow ground).
AI verdict

SR 92 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

12
Warm Spell silks
Warm Spell
Age 5 · 9-0
933-80
81
67
103
5
9-0
50/1
Sole win (from 12 races) came in C&D novice in July 2023; reduced mark appeals on some good efforts last August/September but he's been well below that level on both outings this spring; unproven on slow ground.
AI verdict

SR 67 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

13
Best Rate silks
Best Rate
Age 4 · 9-0
34-464
81
76
102
4
9-0
16/1
0-14 since winning in December 2024 on third start but he's been a close fourth over 7f on AW on two of his last three starts, and he ran well on good to soft last August when he last tackled turf (unraced on softer); solid each-way contender.
AI verdict

SR 76 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

14
City Of Kings silks
City Of Kings
Age 6 · 8-13
51/6/
80
70
6
8-13
16/1
Three runs for Charlie Appleby up to April 2023, winning at Ascot on the middle outing; gelded since and sold for 140,000 UAE Dirham in March 2024; on a handy mark if retaining his past promise and he's one to watch in the betting on stable debut, but it's a very hefty absence to defy.
AI verdict

SR 70 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

15
Obsidian Dream silks
Obsidian Dream
Age 4 · 8-6
/56-35
73
63
100
4
8-6
50/1
On a competitive mark on his best form and he's effective on soft ground; this lightly raced 4yo might have needed the run at Bath 16 days ago following a break but he's inconsistent and others are more compelling.
AI verdict

SR 63 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.

16
Tanmawwy silks
Tanmawwy
Age 8 · 8-5
1052/9
72
63
102
8
8-5
50/1
Beaten a long way at 50-1 at Salisbury last month on first run since 2024 and this 8yo has to prove how much ability he retains; however, he's on a dangerous mark on his 2024 exploits and might not be a forlorn hope.
AI verdict

SR 63 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Consecrated 12/1 12/1 12/1 12/1 12/1 12/1 Bet365
2 Nostrum 7/1 7/1 7/1 7/1 15/2 15/2 Betfred
3 Brian 10/1 10/1 10/1 17/2 10/1 10/1 Bet365
4 Ata Rangi 11/2 11/2 11/2 5/1 5/1 11/2 Bet365
5 Forty Years On 10/3 3/1 3/1 3/1 3/1 10/3 Bet365
6 Spangled Mac 16/1 16/1 16/1 16/1 16/1 16/1 Bet365
7 Morte Point 22/1 16/1 16/1 14/1 16/1 22/1 Bet365
8 Storm Free 11/2 5/1 5/1 9/2 5/1 11/2 Bet365
9 I'm Workin On It 14/1 16/1 18/1 18/1 18/1 18/1 Ladbrokes
10 I Still Have Faith 7/1 13/2 13/2 13/2 7/1 Bet365
11 Chalk Mountain 11/1 12/1 12/1 11/1 12/1 12/1 Coral
12 Warm Spell 50/1 50/1 50/1 50/1 50/1 50/1 Bet365
13 Best Rate 16/1 16/1 16/1 18/1 16/1 18/1 William Hill
14 City Of Kings 16/1 20/1 20/1 22/1 20/1 22/1 William Hill
15 Obsidian Dream 50/1 66/1 66/1 80/1 50/1 80/1 William Hill
16 Tanmawwy 50/1 50/1 50/1 50/1 50/1 50/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Storm Free

Speculative

Storm Free owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (52) and market confidence (75). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

11/2 James Tate Oisin Murphy
65% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Forty Years On

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

10/3 · George Scott
✓ Value Signal

Morte Point

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

22/1 · William Muir & Chris Grassick
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
52 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +19.8 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence High conviction
75 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +16.4 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
40 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.7 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
51 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.1 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor High conviction
63 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +6.3 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
51 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.1 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 8. Storm Free
57.8 11/2
2 5. Forty Years On
57.0 10/3
3 4. Ata Rangi
55.1 11/2
4 10. I Still Have Faith
54.0 7/1
5 3. Brian
50.9 10/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Forty Years On
Medium

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

5
Age 4 · 9-7
10/3
★★★☆☆ SR 103 🐾

SR 103 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Age 5 · 9-8
11/2
★★★☆☆ SR 91 🐾

SR 91 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

8
Age 4 · 9-7
11/2
★★★☆☆ SR 94 🐾

SR 94 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 6 · 9-9
7/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 85 🐾

SR 85 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Age 6 · 9-4
7/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 91 🐾

SR 91 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Age 4 · 9-9
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 82 🐾

SR 82 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

11
Age 6 · 9-2
11/1
★★★☆☆ SR 92 🐾

SR 92 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Age 4 · 9-10
12/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 78 🐾

SR 78 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Age 4 · 9-5
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 87 🐾

SR 87 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Age 7 · 9-7
16/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 76 🐾

SR 76 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

13
Age 4 · 9-0
16/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 76 🐾

SR 76 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

14
Age 6 · 8-13
16/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 70 🐾

SR 70 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Forty Years On
Confidence: Medium

Forty Years On leads the field with SR 103 and is trading at 10/3. The Saturday Rating places it clear of the field on ability. Weight of 9-7 is manageable for a horse of this class.

Shortlist Forty Years On, Storm Free, Chalk Mountain, Ata Rangi, I Still Have Faith
Each-way: Storm Free Danger: Chalk Mountain

🗺 The Course Class 3

7f Distance to cover
Good to Soft Expected going
16 Confirmed runners
Newbury Track and setting
Class 3 Race grade