Went close at Worcester last time, beaten a length despite doing too much early on his first handicap start, which tells you his ability is there; handles 2m on a sound surface. Hood and tongue-tie on for the first time here, which should help him produce his best.
Form last 62/O-13
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
106SR—RPR112OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Carrying top weight of 12-2 with patchy form (2/O-13) and a modest Saturday Rating of 106 limits confidence despite fair 4/1 odds.
Three wins in her last five, including a two-and-a-half-length handicap success at Stratford last time despite encountering trouble in running — the record speaks and she handles this trip and going well. The trainer is in good form, there's a short layoff to overcome, but she rates the likeliest winner.
Form last 672111-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
112SR—RPR108OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Solid recent form (72111-) and competitive 5/2 odds are offset by a hefty 11-12 weight anchoring her Saturday Rating of 112.
A consistent placer prior to his Huntingdon flop — beaten 30 lengths there with nothing to mitigate it — and he handles the trip and conditions well enough. A fresh run from a short layoff, but he needs to bounce back from that effort to be competitive here.
Form last 623324-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
104SR—RPR105OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Tilehurst's consistent form (23324-) and competitive 5/1 odds are offset by a high 11-9 weight burden limiting upside.
His Irish form suggests the mark is workable over this sort of trip, but nine months off the track is a significant question mark; a first run for a new stable adds further uncertainty. He may simply need this to find his footing and is hard to fancy strongly in that context.
Form last 633075-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
94SR—RPR100OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Kaikoura's mid-tier Saturday Rating of 94 and modest 7/1 odds suggest fair claims, but inconsistent form (33075-) limits confidence.
His latest outing ended in a fall at Uttoxeter, which doesn't reflect his ability — he'd been posting consistent placed finishes prior and handles 2m on a sound surface. Tongue-tie applied for the first time here and a break since; the fall is expected to leave no mark and he's entitled to come on.
Form last 63344-F
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
102SR—RPR96OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Carrying top weight of 11-0 with inconsistent form of 3344-F and a modest Saturday Rating of 102 limits confidence at 9/2.
Back to something like his best form, with a narrow three-quarter-length win at Worcester two runs back followed by a solid second last time, beaten five lengths off 93; 1lb higher now but handles this distance on good ground well. An inconsistent sort overall, but the recent upturn makes him a genuine contender.
Form last 656-912
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
99SR—RPR94OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 99 and workable 11/2 odds are offset by inconsistent form (56-912) and a hefty 10-12 weight.
Third beaten 3.5 lengths at Newton Abbot last time on this exact mark — a fair effort after a break, and he handles the distance well — but he has a tendency to over-race and his reliability is questionable; this form needs building on before he can be trusted.
Form last 684F7-3
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
86SR—RPR89OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Weak Saturday Rating of 86, unfancied 10/1 odds, and inconsistent form including a fall make Applejack Poet an unconvincing selection at 10-7.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Granny Hawkins owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (62) and market confidence (87). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
11/4Alan KingTom Bellamy
70%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Crown Of India
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
5/1 · Alex Hales✓ Value Signal
Applejack Poet
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
14/1 · Barry John Murphy◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Tilehurst (SR 104, 5/1) aligns multiple positive signals: DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ confirm suitability for today's 2m125y trip on Good ground, the two most critical filters in a hurdle handicap. Sean Bowen (23% career strike rate from 1,161 runners) is comfortably the highest-quality jockey booking in the field, and the market has shortened 7% since opening — meaningful support without being overcrowded. Carrying 11-9, Tilehurst has a 7lb weight advantage over top-weight Fidendum (SR 106, 12-2) and holds a 3lb edge on Granny Hawkins (SR 112, 11-12), which partially offsets the SR gap. The consistent form string of 23324- shows a horse who hits the frame regularly at this class level and is overdue a win.
Each-way alternative: Granny Hawkins.
Main danger: Granny Hawkins — Granny Hawkins carries the best SR in the field at 112, boasts GoingFit:+ and DistFit:+ to match Tilehurst, and Alan King (15%) with Tom Bellamy (16%) is a high-quality yard-and-jockey combination — the 14% market drift is the only concern, and if that reflects a preference for a stablemate rather than an underlying form worry, this horse is entirely capable of winning.