Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Handicap Hurdle · 2m5f185y
SR 92 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 118 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 84 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 85 suggests ability but - reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 109 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 80 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 76 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 107 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 88 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 79 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.
SR 85 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 109 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 103 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 74 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 98 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 102 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 65 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.
SR 72 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mephisto | 16/1 open 15.00 | — | 16/1 open 12.00 | 14/1 open 12.00 | 16/1 open 13.00 | 16/1 open 12.00 | 16/1 Bet365 |
| 2 Nakassama | 9/4 open 4.00 | — | 5/2 open 4.50 | 3/1 open 4.50 | 9/4 open 3.75 | 9/4 open 3.75 | 3/1 Ladbrokes |
| 3 Ringdufferin | 20/1 open 17.00 | — | 20/1 open 15.00 | 20/1 open 15.00 | 22/1 open 15.00 | 20/1 | 22/1 William Hill |
| 4 Typical Thomas | 16/1 | — | 14/1 | 14/1 | 14/1 open 17.00 | 14/1 | 16/1 Bet365 |
| 5 Cozone | 7/1 open 7.00 | — | 7/1 open 5.50 | 13/2 open 5.50 | 15/2 open 6.50 | 15/2 open 6.00 | 15/2 William Hill |
| 6 Ivybrook | 25/1 open 34.00 | — | 25/1 open 34.00 | 25/1 open 34.00 | 25/1 open 34.00 | 25/1 | 25/1 Bet365 |
| 7 Andys Flame | 33/1 | — | 33/1 | 33/1 | 33/1 | — | 33/1 Bet365 |
| 8 Joya Del Mar | 8/1 open 10.00 | — | 7/1 | 7/1 | 15/2 | 15/2 | 8/1 Bet365 |
| 9 Tribal Moon | 18/1 open 12.00 | — | 16/1 open 13.00 | 14/1 open 13.00 | 22/1 open 12.00 | 18/1 | 22/1 William Hill |
| 10 Eastern Wind | 40/1 | — | 40/1 open 34.00 | 40/1 open 34.00 | 40/1 | 40/1 | 40/1 Bet365 |
| 11 Oh Janey | 20/1 open 15.00 | — | 20/1 open 13.00 | 18/1 open 13.00 | 22/1 open 13.00 | 22/1 | 22/1 William Hill |
| 12 Morell River | 9/2 open 6.00 | — | 9/2 open 5.00 | 9/2 open 5.00 | 9/2 | 9/2 | 9/2 Bet365 |
| 13 Adaliz | 8/1 open 11.00 | — | 15/2 open 17.00 | 15/2 open 17.00 | 8/1 open 11.00 | 15/2 open 11.00 | 8/1 Bet365 |
| 14 Boston Beach | 40/1 open 29.00 | — | 40/1 open 26.00 | 40/1 open 26.00 | 40/1 open 26.00 | 40/1 | 40/1 Bet365 |
| 15 Caher Roes Den | 5/1 | — | 11/2 open 6.00 | 7/1 open 6.00 | 11/2 open 6.00 | 5/1 | 7/1 Ladbrokes |
| 16 Mickey Cohen | 11/1 open 15.00 | — | 10/1 open 15.00 | 11/1 open 15.00 | 10/1 open 15.00 | 10/1 | 11/1 Bet365 |
| 17 Fabhcun | 40/1 open 29.00 | — | 40/1 open 26.00 | 40/1 open 26.00 | 40/1 open 29.00 | 40/1 | 40/1 Bet365 |
| 18 Tolka Row | 28/1 open 26.00 | — | 28/1 open 26.00 | 28/1 open 26.00 | 28/1 open 26.00 | 28/1 | 28/1 Bet365 |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Morell River owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (61) and market confidence (79). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalSR 118 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 109 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 98 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 109 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 107 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 103 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 102 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 92 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 88 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 84 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 85 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Nakassama (SR:118, 9/4) is the standout on ability, carrying the highest Saturday Rating in the field by a clear margin over Cozone and Morell River (both SR:109). The market has reinforced this with a 16% shortening — the most significant steam in the race — and at 9/4 this is genuine confidence money rather than drift. The form string 692-12 shows a win last time out and a placed effort before that, indicating the horse is in peak form, and a DistFit:+ confirms proven ability at this 2m5f+ trip. The tongue-tie is retained (HG:t, not first-time), suggesting connections are comfortable with the setup, and jockey Mr O McGill (15% strike rate from 74 career rides) is an efficient claimer booking for the yard's #1 in a dual-runner stable. The MarkMv:+12 is the main concern — running off a mark 12lb above the last win is a real ask — but the SR advantage and market confidence outweigh that in a competitive 18-runner handicap hurdle at this level. Each-way alternative: Adaliz. Main danger: Morell River — Morell River (SR:109, 9/2) shows a recent 518-12 form string with a win two back, carries only 11-5 (6lb lighter than Nakassama), and sits second in the betting — the weight concession from the top-rated runner could prove decisive in a 2m5f+ grind on good ground.