Pageant Girl has struggled in her last three starts, finishing fifth, seventh, and eighth, and her rating of 64 leaves her ranked tenth of twelve on our figures. She has run over today's trip before and a win four starts back offers slim hope.
Form last 671875
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
46SR—RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 46 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Kochella showed plenty when finishing third three starts back, has run over today's trip, and returns on a good 21-day break with our rating nudging above her official mark — the risk is that her two most recent efforts have been disappointing.
Form last 6306
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
65SR—RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 65 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last two starts and ranked last on our figures, Beach Ahead has been off the track for 59 days and has questions to answer on current form; he has run over today's trip before, and draw five is noted.
Form last 644
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
42SR—RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 42 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.
Tallahassee Lassie arrives on the back of a win last time out and has run over today's trip, with 22 days between runs suggesting she's been given time to recover properly; the risk is that her earlier finishes of fifth and sixth show some inconsistency in recent starts.
Form last 66531
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
73SR—RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 73 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Twice fourth in recent starts, Nascent Star arrives here in solid fitness at 18 days since his last run, has experience over today's trip, and our figures suggest he's working off a lenient official mark — a live contender despite being yet to win in his last three.
Form last 6440
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
69SR—RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 suggests ability but 5/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Najmet Minzaal has shown consistent mid-pack form — fourth two starts back and fourth again three starts back — and has run over today's trip, while 28 days off should leave her fresh; the concern is she's yet to win in her last three starts.
Form last 6445
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
63SR—RPR64OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 63 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Placed third two starts back but only fourth last time out, Crowned has run over today's trip and steps up on his official mark on our rating, though he remains winless in recent starts and the 41-day absence may blunt his sharpness.
Form last 634
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
69SR—RPR63OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last three starts — fifth last time out, and eighth three starts back — Its A Ginger Thing has run over today's trip and returns on a quick 11-day turnaround, though his official mark of 63 and draw two suggest he faces a stiff ask from mid-division.
Form last 6805
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
63SR—RPR63OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 63 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last five starts, Invincible Isaac steps back up having shaped with some promise when fifth two starts back, though a sixth last time out and a ninth three starts back temper expectations; experience over today's trip and going offers some encouragement from stall six off a 34-day break.
Form last 604956
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
46SR—RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 46 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last three starts — a run of sevenths and eighths punctuated by a sixth — Secret Rival heads into this rated 62 and ranked near the foot of our assessments, though she has run over today's trip before and a trainer firing at 29% is a genuine positive.
Form last 6867
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
46SR—RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 46 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.
Winless in her last three starts and ranked ninth of twelve on our figures, Time And Effort faces a stiff ask here, with a struggling trainer (1/23 over the last 14 days) and 130 lb from stall 10 adding little encouragement — though she has run over today's trip and was second last time out.
Form last 6402
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
49SR—RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 49 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last three starts, Trust Yourself heads here 39 days on from a sixth last time out, with two unplaced efforts before that; he has run over today's trip and our rating of 68 gives him a chance, though 130 lb from stall 12 makes life harder.
Form last 6006
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
45SR—RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 45 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Nascent Star owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (38) and market confidence (77). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
5/1Hugo PalmerRobert Havlin
64%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Tallahassee Lassie
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
9/2 · James Fanshawe✓ Value Signal
Pageant Girl
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
50/1 · James Owen◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Tallahassee Lassie leads the field on SR (73) and boasts a DistFit:+ at 6f — the only runner with a confirmed positive distance profile — backed by a recent form line of 6531 showing clear progressive improvement culminating in a last-time-out win. Trainer James Fanshawe runs at a solid 17% strike rate and Oisin Murphy (22%, 1263 career rides) is the standout jockey booking in this field. The 19% market drift is a concern and she is stepping up in mark (+4lb since last win), but at 3/1 in a weak Class 6 nursery, the superior SR, proven trip, and top jockey booking outweigh those negatives. The drift may reflect AW suitability uncertainty rather than any stable concern, and the DistFit:+ edge over rivals who are almost all unproven or poor at 6f is a material advantage.
Each-way alternative: Crowned.
Main danger: Nascent Star — Nascent Star (SR:69, 5/1) has steamed in 19% in the market — the strongest inbound move in the field — and shares the joint-second-highest SR alongside Crowned, with trainer Hugo Palmer capable of placing a horse well on a drop of four class levels, suggesting connections believe this drop is significant enough to offset the DistFit:- flag.
ShortlistTallahassee Lassie, Crowned, Nascent Star