Placed third four starts back, Jonny Carrol has struggled since but returns fit on 15 days' rest, has run over today's trip and going, and our rating of 109 marks him as the one to beat in this field of 17, even if winless in recent starts.
Form last 653P-78
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
59SR—RPR100OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 59 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.
Deise Crystal posted back-to-back minor finishes — third last time out and a second two starts back — and has experience of today's going, giving him strong claims off a 96 official mark; the 72-day absence and 164 lb burden are the chief concerns.
Form last 664P-23
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
86SR—RPR96OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 86 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in her last five starts — including a pulled up and a ninth — Layenda does bring going experience to the table and ran third two starts back, but 54 days off the track and a hefty 163 lb burden make her prospects here look limited.
Form last 60P7-39
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
57SR—RPR95OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 57 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.
Consistent placed efforts in recent starts, Bayonetta has back-to-back seconds in her recent form and has run over today's trip and going before — her rating of 100 makes her a leading threat among 17 rivals; the concern is she remains winless in her last five.
Form last 63-4224
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
88SR—RPR94OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last five starts and yet to trouble the judge, Riverstown Boy at least returns on a going surface he has encountered before and is fresh enough after 28 days off; carrying 162 lb against a competitive field of 17 will test his ability to improve on that persistent fifth-place pattern.
Form last 6-5P555
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
77SR—RPR94OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 77 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Placed last time out but winless in her last four starts overall, Barrogstown Girl has run over today's going before and returns on a quick 14-day turnaround; the 157 lb burden could be the factor that keeps her from threatening at the finish.
Form last 606-82
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
83SR—RPR89OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 83 suggests ability but 9/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Yet to score in his last five starts, with two successive mishaps — a fall then a pulled up — clouding his recent picture; Charlie's Gift has run over today's trip and going, but 157 lb is a stern ask for a gelding whose form is hard to read right now.
Form last 687-7FP
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
67SR—RPR89OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 67 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 11/1.
Rated 104 and ranked second of 17 runners, Zaryagle has run over today's going and is well treated on official ratings — the main concern is his pulling-up last time out after 292 days off, leaving fitness a genuine question mark.
Form last 60596P-
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
53SR—RPR86OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 53 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Winless in her last five starts and absent for 156 days, Madam Elle faces a stiff ask carrying 153 lb, and our rating of 77 ranks her 14th of 17 here — hard to fancy on these figures, though she does have a seventh-place finish to her name.
Form last 600070-
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
55SR—RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 55 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
Winless in her last five starts, with a string of mid-to-tail-of-field finishes, Notmiwadi is hard to fancy ranked 16 of 17 on our figures; she has run over today's going before, which offers a small crumb of comfort, but the evidence here is against her.
Form last 69778-0
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
55SR—RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 55 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Itaintmebabe landed a win four starts back but has been unplaced or out of the frame in his three subsequent runs, and 85 days off the track adds a fitness query; he has run over today's trip and going, though 152 lb is a stern weight to overcome.
Form last 67175-0
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
67SR—RPR84OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 67 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Unexposed and still open to improvement, Who's Da Goose has been winless in his last three starts but shaped best when fifth of those three; the 28-day break looks a fair freshener, and with only a handful of runs to his name, there is likely more to come at 152lb.
Form last 6758
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
75SR—RPR88OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 75 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last five starts, Sekakarma does at least bring distance and going experience to the table, and 24 days since his fourth last time out suggests he arrives fresh; however, a pulled up four starts back and that 147 lb burden make it hard to fancy him with conviction.
Form last 60P-594
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
71SR—RPR79OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Hob's Angel has shown she can compete, with a win and a second in recent starts, but ranked 12 of 17 on our figures she faces a stiff task here, and 145 lb adds further to the burden.
Form last 66-1253
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
81SR—RPR77OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 81 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last five starts and having pulled up on three of those occasions, Keep The Head makes for a difficult proposition here; she does return on a quick turnaround with going experience to her name, but ranked 13 of 17 on our figures, she faces a stiff task.
Form last 6P9P-P0
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
52SR—RPR81OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 52 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
Winless in his last five starts and ranked 15th of 17 on our figures, John Dixen faces a stiff ask here; a sixth two starts back offers slim encouragement, and at least he arrives fit on a 17-day turnaround.
Form last 6000-60
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
51SR—RPR74OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 51 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Landed a win three starts back but has struggled since, posting an eighth and a ninth in his last two — and at just one day since his previous outing, the turnaround is sharp. Has run over today's trip and going, though his ranking of 11th of 17 suggests he faces stiff competition.
Form last 60-P189
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
68SR—RPR78OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 68 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Barrogstown Girl owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (46) and market confidence (77). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
5/1Jarlath P FaheyPeter Smithers(7)
64%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Deise Crystal
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
10/3 · Sean Aherne✓ Value Signal
Notmiwadi
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
33/1 · John C McConnell◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Deise Crystal (SR 86, 11/4) is the clear ability standout in this field — the SR 86 is a full 2 points clear of the next-best Bayonetta (SR 88 wait — Bayonetta is SR 88, Deise Crystal SR 86, but Deise Crystal carries 11-10 vs Bayonetta's 11-8, a marginal weight difference). On re-check, Bayonetta holds a 2-point SR edge (88 vs 86) but has drifted 17% in the market and the GoingFit:+ is offset by the drift and an 8-year age profile with a form string of 3-4224 showing no win in sight. Deise Crystal's form of 64P-23 shows a progressive return to form, is the joint-market leader at 11/4, and trainer Sean Aherne (8% strike rate, 72 runners) is a small yard sending this horse out with clear intent — the 7lb claimer Anna McGuinness adds weight allowance reducing the effective burden on 11-10. The 7% drift is modest and explainable given the competitive 50-runner declaration, and at 11/4 in a field where the SR leader is drifting, this represents the strongest convergence of SR, market confidence, and improving form.
Each-way alternative: Barrogstown Girl.
Main danger: Bayonetta — Bayonetta (SR 88, the field's highest rating) carries GoingFit:+ on today's good ground and Keith Donoghue in the saddle — if the market drift of 17% proves unfounded and the horse reproduces its best, the SR edge could prove decisive.