LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record

Race by Race

LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.

223 Races graded
58 · 26.6% Winners called (Slot 1)
141 · 64.7% Any of 4 came 1st
53.3% Pick-level frame rate
13 Perfect 1-2-3-4 in frame
  1. Thu 30 Jul 2026 · 15:00

    Goodwood · Maison Perrier Gordon Stakes (Group 3)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Enceladus

      15/8

      Back-to-back wins capping a 33-11 form sequence, hottest trainer on the card at 23%, and a market price of 15/8 that reflects genuine respect — this is a horse who has found his l…

      Nailed it · Finished 1st
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Geryon

      9/2

      Form of -44241 ending in a short-priced favourite run and a weight rise of 6lb is manageable; Colin Keane at 16% keeps the ride credible, and the model's +0.6 form credit is real.

      Nailed it · Finished 2nd
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Magnetude

      22/1

      The James Owen yard at 34% over 14 days is the most explosive trainer statistic in the field; 22/1 looks too big for a horse the form shows has placed at Group level before.

      Missed — Finished 6th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Bay Of Brilliance

      3/1

      Drifting from a much shorter price to 3/1 on a 54-day absence; the form 11-240 is fading, and the market is telling a story worth heeding.

      Nailed it · Finished 4th
  2. Thu 30 Jul 2026 · 14:25

    Goodwood · Markel Richmond Stakes (Group 2)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Flann Sunna

      11/8

      Unbeaten in two, Crisford yard at 21%, William Buick riding — the class rise is the risk but on equal weights in a sprint this strong combination is the right call over a cold-tra…

      Missed — Finished 5th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Man's Best Friend

      11/2

      Two from two with a sharp upward trajectory; Ryan Moore at 27% on an O'Brien runner eight days after winning at 2/1 is a booking made with intent — cannot be second to anyone bar …

      Placed — Finished 1st
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Jaan Ki Tukri

      14/1

      Last-start winner steaming through the market; distance and going both tick positive, and Hector Crouch at 17% gives this a genuine each-way case at 14/1.

      Missed — Finished 10th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Adaay of Scarlett

      9/1

      Consistent form string of 11222 flags a horse finding its level; Oisin Murphy at 22% and both distance and going green make this a live each-way outsider at 9/1.

      Placed — Finished 2nd
  3. Thu 30 Jul 2026 · 13:50

    Goodwood · Coral Kincsem Heritage Handicap

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Harmonics

      9/2

      The Gosden yard's 33% 14-day strike rate is the strongest trainer signal in this field; combined with a 5118 form line and a horse on the upgrade, this is the most credible winner…

      Missed — Finished 5th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Ciarrai Abu

      4/1

      Back-to-back placed-or-won efforts (141 in last three), Eustace's yard at 21%, and 4/1 price suggests the market agrees this is the one most likely to run Harmonics close.

      Placed — Finished 1st
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Dial Me In

      7/1

      The market steam is real and O'Brien's yard at 23% backs it up, but the 28/1 last run creates enough doubt to keep him out of the top two at this price.

      Missed — Finished 8th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Evanesco

      11/1

      The strongest market move in the field (steaming to 11/1) and a going-positive flag make Evanesco an intriguing each-way outsider despite Johnston's cold yard numbers.

      Placed — Finished 3rd
  4. Wed 29 Jul 2026 · 17:40

    Goodwood · Hkjc World Pool Handicap Stakes

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Crimson Spirit

      11/2

      10lb weight drop, going fit, Moore aboard at 27%, yard at 25% — four signals pointing the same direction. The form string shows a horse in the ascending part of his curve.

      Nailed it · Finished 1st
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Goldmoyne

      7/1

      Positive distance and going fit, form string 954223 showing consistent placing, and James Owen's yard operating at a remarkable 35% strike rate over the past fortnight.

      Missed — Finished 8th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Zarathos

      14/1

      Distance and going fit are genuine positives and the market has moved for him; a low trainer strike rate at 8% is the only credible reservation against a placed finish.

      Missed — Finished 10th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Oliver Show

      6/1

      Boughey's yard at 19% and a significant steamer from 20/1 to 6/1 — the market knows something, even if the going and distance flags are negative on the form data.

      Nailed it · Finished 4th
  5. Wed 29 Jul 2026 · 17:00

    Goodwood · Coral Charlton Handicap Stakes

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Rory Rocket

      SP (steamer)

      A 13lb weight drop from a 4/9 winning run, distance and going both ticked +, model-second at 6.59 — the class rise of two is the only brake and the weight swings it back.

      Missed — Finished 19th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Under The Twilight

      SP (steamer)

      Model-topper at 6.93, significant steamer, won last time — but a cold trainer yard and hold-up draw in a race Rory Rocket controls from a prominent pitch makes this the danger.

      Nailed it · Finished 2nd
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Calling A Star

      SP (steamer)

      Model third at 6.49, William Buick at 21% strike rate, Hughes yard at 19% — the jockey and trainer combination is the strongest quality pairing on the card.

      Missed — Finished 22nd
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Sir Garfield

      SP

      A two-class drop, going fit +, and a recent win — Sir Garfield's model score of 6.02 with class relief is the each-way stand-out in a chaotic field at a likely double-figure price.

      Missed — Finished 8th
  6. Wed 29 Jul 2026 · 16:10

    Goodwood · Visit Qatar Sussex Stakes (Group 1)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Bow Echo

      10/11

      Five from five, steaming market support, top model score of 7.73, and 8lb weight advantage over the older horses. The evidence runs in one direction.

      Nailed it · Finished 1st
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Opera Ballo

      7/2

      Appleby's yard is the hottest in this field at 35% and Buick rarely wastes a Group 1 trip; the weight hike is a concern but the class and connections demand respect.

      Placed — Finished 3rd
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Gstaad

      10/3

      Model score of 6.07, Ryan Moore aboard, and a form string showing consistent front-rank performances — but reliance on a strong pace to deliver his finish is a vulnerability here.

      Placed — Finished 2nd
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Zavateri

      22/1

      Model scores him fourth on going and form combination; Eve Johnson Houghton's quieter yard is a flag, but the 102 days between runs and Charles Bishop's 8% strike rate cap expecta…

      Missed — Finished 5th
  7. Wed 29 Jul 2026 · 15:35

    Goodwood · Veuve Clicquot Molecomb Stakes (Group 3)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Missed the frame 3/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Crownbreaker

      9/2

      Top of the deterministic model, steamering market, 30% trainer yard in form, and a last-run winner dropping 2lb. The evidence stack is clean and consistent.

      Missed — Finished 10th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Adonius

      5/1

      Three from three is impossible to dismiss; the form alone demands respect. The cold yard tempers enthusiasm but a perfect record at this age keeps him squarely dangerous.

      Nailed it · Finished 2nd
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Sale Shark

      13/2

      Confirmed five-furlong trip, Oisin Murphy in the saddle at 22%, and a market move today. His 155 form shows consistency if not brilliance — each-way claims are real.

      Placed — Finished 4th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Pershaada

      3/1

      Distance and going both tick, Hannon yard at 18%, but an SP sequence of 6/5F to 33/1 to 7/1 is a horse the market keeps re-evaluating — fourth last time is a concern at Group 3 le…

      Placed — Finished 1st
  8. Wed 29 Jul 2026 · 15:00

    Goodwood · Rolls-royce Oak Tree Stakes (Group 3)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Flora Of Bermuda

      3/1

      Won last time out at today's price, confirmed distance fit, Balding yard at 22% strike rate, and Doyle's booking signals trainer confidence despite the 3lb weight rise.

      Nailed it · Finished 1st
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Radiant Beauty

      10/1

      Model's top pick at 6.96, steaming in the market, distance and going both positive, and Owen's yard at 35% over 14 days — the strongest corroborating cluster in the field.

      Placed — Finished 3rd
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Planet Seeker

      6/1

      Form of 13-41 is progressive and Ralph Beckett handles class rises well; the drop back to 8-13 gives the three-year-old a weight advantage over the older horses.

      Placed — Finished 4th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Zanthos

      9/2

      Oisin Murphy at 22% career strike rate on a horse whose 121-90 form contains two wins at this trip; the 9 and 0 need explaining but Murphy doesn't take losing rides lightly.

      Missed — Finished 7th
  9. Wed 29 Jul 2026 · 14:25

    Goodwood · British Stallion Studs Ebf Alice Keppel Fillies' Conditions Stakes (GBB Race)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Wild Blossom

      11/8

      Steaming 11/8 with a 30% Burke yard in blistering form; James Doyle booked and the model's top-ranked pick on the combined weight of market move, class drop, and form.

      Nailed it · Finished 1st
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Zigazig Ah

      7/1

      Back-to-back wins and a proven distance flag make her the clearest danger, but a 12lb weight rise from last time is a genuine concern at this level.

      Missed — Finished 5th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Fast Track

      11/2

      A 1/10F winner last time out stepping up in class; Oisin Murphy's 22% strike rate and Andrew Balding's 22% yard form give her a place claim at 11/2.

      Placed — Finished 2nd
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Call Nicki

      25/1

      Strong recent form string ending in a win and only 13 days between runs; Tim Easterby's 8% yard form caps the upside but she's not without a prayer at 25/1.

      Nailed it · Finished 4th
  10. Wed 29 Jul 2026 · 13:50

    Goodwood · Coral Rewards Shaker Handicap Stakes (Gbbplus Race)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner placed 3/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Hatteen

      2/1

      Topped the deterministic model at 6.88, backed from 11/2 to 2/1 — the largest market move in the field — from Balding's 22% yard, 4lb lighter than last time.

      Placed — Finished 2nd
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Cannes

      4/1

      O'Brien's yard at 25% is the strongest trainer signal in the race; three consecutive favourites' marks suggest class, even if the weight rise and final-run zero invite caution.

      Placed — Finished 3rd
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Infraad

      7/2

      Going-positive, 2lb lighter, and model-ranked third at 5.51 — the class rise is the drag, but Haggas horses stepping up in class at Goodwood are rarely without a shout.

      Placed — Finished 1st
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Bay Royale

      13/2

      A dramatic 8lb weight drop and Eustace's hot 25% yard keep Bay Royale in the frame despite drifting in the market — the conditions suit a fresh horse off 71 days.

      Missed — Finished 7th