LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Christmas Day
2/1Best combination of form score, going fit, and class consistency in the field; the 4lb weight drop versus last run adds a tangible edge at a mile-and-six.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Enceladus
9/4Three wins on the spin at 6/4F tells its own story; the main danger to Christmas Day, though a slight going-fit question keeps him a shade behind on the evidence.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Pierre Bonnard
3/1Hold-up style suits a lone front-runner scenario; going-fit marker is positive and the 100/30 last-time-out price confirms market respect at this level.
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4Predicted 4th
Amelia Earhart
28/1The second biggest steamer in the race with a going-fit positive; Tom Marquand takes the ride and the weight allowance at 9-0 is a live each-way angle at the price.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
More Thunder
5/6Top of the deterministic model, Haggas yard at 28%, market steamer with substance — good to firm ground and a genuine-tempo race over seven furlongs at Doncaster is the optimal se…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Flora Of Bermuda
13/2Three wins in recent starts, Balding firing at 21%, 3lb weight advantage — the going concern is real but she has enough class to finish second if the ground isn't as testing as fe…
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Never So Brave
15/2Balding's second string in this race, going fits positively and the distance is adequate — the drift from 6/4 in a previous run is a flag but 15/2 offers each-way appeal for a pla…
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4Predicted 4th
Qirat
8/1Ralph Beckett's yard at 21% and a recent 14-day turnaround suggests freshness, but the drifting market and only adequate distance fit keep Qirat to a marginal fourth in the finish…
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Winner placed 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Twilight Calls
5/1Three wins from last four, trainer firing at 25%, steaming 5/1 — form profile is the strongest in the field and Spencer's yard stat is the corroborating signal the model rewards c…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Toca Madera
7/18lb weight drop, Tudhope aboard, steaming into 7/1 from bigger — the market is finding this horse for a reason and the weight relief in a hot gallop is a genuine asset.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Getreadytorumble
7/1100/30 favourite last time out, 1lb weight relief, distance fit positive — Tom Marquand's experience in big-field sprint handicaps makes this the each-way play at 7/1.
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4Predicted 4th
Station X
14/1Form string 164131 shows consistent involvement at the sharp end; 7lb weight drop offsets the class rise and Jason Watson has ridden this horse to wins before.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Desert Castle
8/11Appleby at 33% strike rate, a debut win at odds-on, and the strongest model score in the field by nearly a full point. The steamer to 8/11 confirms market intelligence aligns.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Sergei Diaghilev
5/1Three career runs, three market moves — this horse is consistently fancied for good reason. Distance proven, form reads 191, and 5/1 is a significant underestimate of his winning …
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Gentle Hurricane
6/1Andrew Balding's yard running at 21% and a form line of 12 — placed last time — gives him honest each-way credentials despite today's drift to 6/1.
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4Predicted 4th
Rosberg
16/1Won twice but the +3lb swing, significant drift to 16/1, and the model's lowest score in the field suggest this Group 2 step up comes too soon.
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Winner called 4/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Al Jabbar
5/2Appleby at 33% yard form, a purposeful steamer from 4/9 debut second, and a model score 1.41 clear of the field. The evidence stacks in one direction.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Hmas Perth
3/1O'Brien's debut third is the only runner with a comparable form profile; 3/1 represents the market's genuine second opinion and it is hard to argue against it.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Royal Quest
15/2Balding's second string carries the yard's 21% strike rate without the damaging drift that haunts Berkshire Regal; third is a realistic ceiling for a debutant.
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4Predicted 4th
Game Character
9/2A debut fifth for Hugo Palmer who has run in a higher-class maiden before; unlikely to win but has the most form of the mid-priced debutants.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Fans Favourite
4/1Form string 311531 is the most consistent in the field; 1lb lighter than the co-top-rated Almekarem; Murphy at 22% is the decisive jockey edge in a wide-open race.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Almekarem
4/1Co-leader of the deterministic model at 6.15, Prescott's yard in 21% form, and SR 82 is legitimate — the weight burden of 10-2 is the single reason he finishes second rather than …
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Everyoneknowsadave
6/1SR 83 is the highest in the field, form shows a recent second and fourth with a win mixed in, but Jessica Macey's yard at 0-from-10 in 14 days is a cold dampener on the each-way c…
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4Predicted 4th
Something Splendid
15/2Peter Chapple-Hyam at 40% in the last fortnight is the hottest yard stat on the card; a recent win and distance and going fits (D:+ GF:+) make this the standout each-way outsider.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Henley On Thames
5/1Model top-rank at 7.54, SR 88, back-to-back wins, two-class drop, hot yard at 22%, and strongest market move in the field. The pace map is tailor-made.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Launch Sequence
7/2SR 87, K.R. Burke's yard operating at 26% — the best trainer strike rate in the field — and James Doyle booked at 21%. Three placed runs suggest consistent effort without winning.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Pride Of Toledo
10/3SR 90 is the highest in the field and the steamer from 28/1 to 10/3 is dramatic, but a +7lb weight rise and a hold-up style in a race that may not truly set up for closers gives m…
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4Predicted 4th
Tumishi
10/1SR 78, a last-run win at 8/11F showing genuine ability, and James Fanshawe's yard at 24% — strong each-way claims at 10/1 for a horse dropping 3lb from its winning run.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Victoria Night
4/5SR 160 is top-class for this field; a steam from 7/1 to 4/5 in a maiden with minimal public form signals genuine inside confidence. Speed score and market move are the two stronge…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
She's Got A Way
3/1SR 154 underpins a genuine each-way claim; Burke at 26% and Ryan Moore's booking make her the most dangerous rival, even if the drift from 11/4 to 3/1 is a mild concern.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Antonova
9/2SR 152 matches Awwjaan's rating but Haggas at 24% over 14 days gives Antonova a fractional edge in trainer form for a placing claim at a double-figure price.
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4Predicted 4th
Awwjaan
6/1SR 152 is credible but Awwjaan drifted with no compensating positive signal in the model — -1.0 market move is the worst in the field and is hard to argue past.
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Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Silver Lake
7/4Field-best SR of 100, Haggas yard at 24% strike rate, Doyle booked, confirmed Δsteamer. Three wins in last four starts and the market has been right about her every time.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Ruby Wedding
4/1SR 94, Δsteamer at 4/1, Oisin Murphy at 22% career strike rate — the strongest market move among the dangers; Andrew Balding at 19% keeps her firmly in the frame.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Room Fourteen
5/1SR 93, consistent form string 312113 showing she rarely runs a bad race; Fanshawe's yard at 24% doubles the interest and she's shed 2lb since last run.
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4Predicted 4th
Nochebuena
9/2SR 98 makes her technically the second-highest-rated filly in the field, but a 17lb weight rise and 63 days off are enough to keep her out of the first three at 9/2 drifting.
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Missed the frame 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Winday
7/2Lightest weight in the race at 8-10, a course-fresh win last time at 11/8, SR 102 competitive here, Buick booked, and steaming in the market — every signal points the same way.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Caballo De Mar
6/4SR 119 is the class ceiling of this field and Oisin Murphy at 22% strike rate keeps it relevant despite the drift and the top weight.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Beylerbeyi
4/1SR 98 gives it a base, and 4/1 in a thin field is live each-way money even if Ian Williams's yard form is a concern.
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4Predicted 4th
Ascending
6/1Steaming from 28/1 into 6/1 is a credible market signal; De Bromhead's yard at 17% over the fortnight is the corroborating nudge for a placing spot.
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