LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Enceladus
15/8Back-to-back wins capping a 33-11 form sequence, hottest trainer on the card at 23%, and a market price of 15/8 that reflects genuine respect — this is a horse who has found his l…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Geryon
9/2Form of -44241 ending in a short-priced favourite run and a weight rise of 6lb is manageable; Colin Keane at 16% keeps the ride credible, and the model's +0.6 form credit is real.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Magnetude
22/1The James Owen yard at 34% over 14 days is the most explosive trainer statistic in the field; 22/1 looks too big for a horse the form shows has placed at Group level before.
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4Predicted 4th
Bay Of Brilliance
3/1Drifting from a much shorter price to 3/1 on a 54-day absence; the form 11-240 is fading, and the market is telling a story worth heeding.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Flann Sunna
11/8Unbeaten in two, Crisford yard at 21%, William Buick riding — the class rise is the risk but on equal weights in a sprint this strong combination is the right call over a cold-tra…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Man's Best Friend
11/2Two from two with a sharp upward trajectory; Ryan Moore at 27% on an O'Brien runner eight days after winning at 2/1 is a booking made with intent — cannot be second to anyone bar …
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Jaan Ki Tukri
14/1Last-start winner steaming through the market; distance and going both tick positive, and Hector Crouch at 17% gives this a genuine each-way case at 14/1.
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4Predicted 4th
Adaay of Scarlett
9/1Consistent form string of 11222 flags a horse finding its level; Oisin Murphy at 22% and both distance and going green make this a live each-way outsider at 9/1.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Harmonics
9/2The Gosden yard's 33% 14-day strike rate is the strongest trainer signal in this field; combined with a 5118 form line and a horse on the upgrade, this is the most credible winner…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Ciarrai Abu
4/1Back-to-back placed-or-won efforts (141 in last three), Eustace's yard at 21%, and 4/1 price suggests the market agrees this is the one most likely to run Harmonics close.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Dial Me In
7/1The market steam is real and O'Brien's yard at 23% backs it up, but the 28/1 last run creates enough doubt to keep him out of the top two at this price.
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4Predicted 4th
Evanesco
11/1The strongest market move in the field (steaming to 11/1) and a going-positive flag make Evanesco an intriguing each-way outsider despite Johnston's cold yard numbers.
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Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Crimson Spirit
11/210lb weight drop, going fit, Moore aboard at 27%, yard at 25% — four signals pointing the same direction. The form string shows a horse in the ascending part of his curve.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Goldmoyne
7/1Positive distance and going fit, form string 954223 showing consistent placing, and James Owen's yard operating at a remarkable 35% strike rate over the past fortnight.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Zarathos
14/1Distance and going fit are genuine positives and the market has moved for him; a low trainer strike rate at 8% is the only credible reservation against a placed finish.
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4Predicted 4th
Oliver Show
6/1Boughey's yard at 19% and a significant steamer from 20/1 to 6/1 — the market knows something, even if the going and distance flags are negative on the form data.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Rory Rocket
SP (steamer)A 13lb weight drop from a 4/9 winning run, distance and going both ticked +, model-second at 6.59 — the class rise of two is the only brake and the weight swings it back.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Under The Twilight
SP (steamer)Model-topper at 6.93, significant steamer, won last time — but a cold trainer yard and hold-up draw in a race Rory Rocket controls from a prominent pitch makes this the danger.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Calling A Star
SP (steamer)Model third at 6.49, William Buick at 21% strike rate, Hughes yard at 19% — the jockey and trainer combination is the strongest quality pairing on the card.
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4Predicted 4th
Sir Garfield
SPA two-class drop, going fit +, and a recent win — Sir Garfield's model score of 6.02 with class relief is the each-way stand-out in a chaotic field at a likely double-figure price.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Bow Echo
10/11Five from five, steaming market support, top model score of 7.73, and 8lb weight advantage over the older horses. The evidence runs in one direction.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Opera Ballo
7/2Appleby's yard is the hottest in this field at 35% and Buick rarely wastes a Group 1 trip; the weight hike is a concern but the class and connections demand respect.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Gstaad
10/3Model score of 6.07, Ryan Moore aboard, and a form string showing consistent front-rank performances — but reliance on a strong pace to deliver his finish is a vulnerability here.
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4Predicted 4th
Zavateri
22/1Model scores him fourth on going and form combination; Eve Johnson Houghton's quieter yard is a flag, but the 102 days between runs and Charles Bishop's 8% strike rate cap expecta…
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Missed the frame 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Crownbreaker
9/2Top of the deterministic model, steamering market, 30% trainer yard in form, and a last-run winner dropping 2lb. The evidence stack is clean and consistent.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Adonius
5/1Three from three is impossible to dismiss; the form alone demands respect. The cold yard tempers enthusiasm but a perfect record at this age keeps him squarely dangerous.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Sale Shark
13/2Confirmed five-furlong trip, Oisin Murphy in the saddle at 22%, and a market move today. His 155 form shows consistency if not brilliance — each-way claims are real.
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4Predicted 4th
Pershaada
3/1Distance and going both tick, Hannon yard at 18%, but an SP sequence of 6/5F to 33/1 to 7/1 is a horse the market keeps re-evaluating — fourth last time is a concern at Group 3 le…
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Flora Of Bermuda
3/1Won last time out at today's price, confirmed distance fit, Balding yard at 22% strike rate, and Doyle's booking signals trainer confidence despite the 3lb weight rise.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Radiant Beauty
10/1Model's top pick at 6.96, steaming in the market, distance and going both positive, and Owen's yard at 35% over 14 days — the strongest corroborating cluster in the field.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Planet Seeker
6/1Form of 13-41 is progressive and Ralph Beckett handles class rises well; the drop back to 8-13 gives the three-year-old a weight advantage over the older horses.
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4Predicted 4th
Zanthos
9/2Oisin Murphy at 22% career strike rate on a horse whose 121-90 form contains two wins at this trip; the 9 and 0 need explaining but Murphy doesn't take losing rides lightly.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Wild Blossom
11/8Steaming 11/8 with a 30% Burke yard in blistering form; James Doyle booked and the model's top-ranked pick on the combined weight of market move, class drop, and form.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Zigazig Ah
7/1Back-to-back wins and a proven distance flag make her the clearest danger, but a 12lb weight rise from last time is a genuine concern at this level.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Fast Track
11/2A 1/10F winner last time out stepping up in class; Oisin Murphy's 22% strike rate and Andrew Balding's 22% yard form give her a place claim at 11/2.
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4Predicted 4th
Call Nicki
25/1Strong recent form string ending in a win and only 13 days between runs; Tim Easterby's 8% yard form caps the upside but she's not without a prayer at 25/1.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Hatteen
2/1Topped the deterministic model at 6.88, backed from 11/2 to 2/1 — the largest market move in the field — from Balding's 22% yard, 4lb lighter than last time.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Cannes
4/1O'Brien's yard at 25% is the strongest trainer signal in the race; three consecutive favourites' marks suggest class, even if the weight rise and final-run zero invite caution.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Infraad
7/2Going-positive, 2lb lighter, and model-ranked third at 5.51 — the class rise is the drag, but Haggas horses stepping up in class at Goodwood are rarely without a shout.
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4Predicted 4th
Bay Royale
13/2A dramatic 8lb weight drop and Eustace's hot 25% yard keep Bay Royale in the frame despite drifting in the market — the conditions suit a fresh horse off 71 days.
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