LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Annastarzy
4/1Three wins on the spin, the strongest form sequence in the field, top of the deterministic model at 6.64, and steaming from 14/1 to 4/1 — the market has found the same conclusion.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Rumba Numba
11/2Varian at 37% in-yard is impossible to ignore; the 12lb weight rise is the worry, but a class drop and solid 124-15 form keeps her firmly in the mix.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Crazee Icon
6/1Ran to a near-favourite's level last three runs with form -52511 and Andrew Balding's yard is hot at 25%; distance is a mild query but the ability is there at 6/1.
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4Predicted 4th
Nanino Niyati
13/2The 8lb weight drop is a genuine positive and the steaming market can't be dismissed, but the distance minus and unproven record at this class cap her ceiling.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Final Objective
9/2Steaming price backed by class drop and a 41-day freshener; Callum Rodriguez at 17% and a form structure that improves on context. The market move is organic, not vapour.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Launch Sequence
15/8Burke's 30% yard form and Doyle in the saddle are real signals; the drift is a concern but not fatal — expect this horse to run into second rather than win.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Agrippa
6/1Front-runner with an improving form line (5 then 2), a Richard Hannon yard at 12%, and Pat Dobbs up — if the pace collapses early, Agrippa could steal into the frame.
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4Predicted 4th
Severn Councils
5/1Ryan Moore at 27% career strike rate is the single most compelling jockey signal in the race; 66/1 last time to 5/1 today is a dramatic collapse in price worth respecting for a pl…
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Glamorous Breeze
11/1Model top-ranked at 6.70; distance fit, going fit, yard 25% in 14 days, and a steamer from 20/1 to 11/1 — every signal is aligned in the same direction.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Twilight Calls
8/1An 11lb weight drop and positive going fit give her real each-way claims; form string 586121 shows a mare in the best form of the field at the business end.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Seven Questions
10/1Second steamer in the race at 10/1 from 18/1; the market move carries this despite Robert Cowell's cold yard — money is the signal here and it's worth respecting.
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4Predicted 4th
Lexington Blitz
11/2Distance fit, going fit, form 19-313 shows a horse that belongs at this level; 11/2 in a 24-runner field represents genuine place value from a fresher runner.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Trawlerman
2/1Model top-ranked at 6.87, form-positive, going-fit, and backed by the form's hottest yard at 47%. Buick's booking at this level is a statement of intent.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Scandinavia
10/11Five-from-five record and Ryan Moore make her a serious threat, but the model scores her second at 6.50 and her yard runs at just 11% over 14 days — the form reads better than the…
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Rahiebb
10/1Form shows a recent 8/1 run with a return to form implied; Varian's yard at 37% over 14 days is the second-hottest operation in the field and warrants each-way respect at 10/1.
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4Predicted 4th
Lazy Griff
14/1Going-fit positive, freshest horse in the race at 24 days, and will set the pace from the front — likely to run on honourably before tiring late in a two-mile Group 1.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Qirat
10/3Arrived off a win, down 2lb, with a hot trainer at 21% and a significant market move to 10/3. The form, the weight, the yard, and the money all point the same way.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Lake Forest
11/8Still the market leader and Haggas does not send horses here without purpose, but the drift and the weight rise make him the danger rather than the banker.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Rogue Diplomat
11/1James Owen's yard is scorching at 34% and Rogue Diplomat has a '1' latest with strong distance and going fit — each-way claims are real at 11/1.
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4Predicted 4th
Marvelman
5/1The Balding yard's 25% strike rate and the steaming price keep Marvelman in the frame, but two poor recent runs and unknown going make this a speculative fourth.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Al Hudaiba
13/8Model-leader at 6.40, Appleby firing at 40% in 14 days, Buick booked, positive distance fit — three wins from completed runs says the form is genuine.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Undiscovered
9/1Two wins from two, drops 5lb, Ralph Beckett's yard at 21% — a class rise of two grades is the only credible worry against an otherwise strong profile.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Dr Rascal
17/2Back-to-back wins give Dr Rascal the joint-best form score in the model; the weight drop of 4lb helps, though the 9% trainer strike rate is a ceiling on confidence.
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4Predicted 4th
Ruler's Control
12/1Joseph Patrick O'Brien's yard runs at 30% and James Doyle's 18% career strike rate is respectable — but 40 days off track and thin form make this a place-only interest.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Diego El Queso
13/2Top of the deterministic model, race steamer, 11lb weight drop, distance and going both positive — G.M. Lyons has him primed and Colin Keane is the booking.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Noble Horizon
5/15/1 market leader, D:+ GF:+, won last time, and Oli Rix's tiny yard is running at 50% over 14 days — the double class-jump is the only real concern.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Yabher
13/2Form string 1-0-1 in three completed runs this campaign; 6lb weight relief and a trip that fits — William Haggas horses off a short break at Goodwood carry weight.
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4Predicted 4th
Night Breeze
16/1Last three form figures read 1-2-3; going fits (GF:+) and Ian Williams has three winners from 26 runners in the last fortnight — place claims are real at 16/1.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
All Ways Glamorous
6/1Topped the deterministic model, going fit positive, distance fit positive, a win last time at 2/1, and an 11lb weight drop onto 9-4. The class rise is the only negative and the fo…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Rocking Ends
8/1Ran seven days ago and is clearly fit, going fit positive, and Tom Clover at 36% is the standout trainer stat in the race — dangerous at 8/1.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Getreadytorumble
5/1Class drop, positive going and distance fit, and a market that has moved from 66/1 to 6/1 over three runs — Tom Marquand takes this hold-up horse into the mix late.
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4Predicted 4th
Indian Run
13/2Recent form reads '7-8921' — three consecutive improvement runs — going fit is positive and the model rates her fourth; 13/2 is workable each-way money.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Asmen Warrior
9/2Model-topper at 5.62, yard running at 33%, Fallon at 20%, 5lb weight relief, positive going fit — every signal points the same direction.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Grizedale
7/2Back-to-back form including two wins and Oisin Murphy in the saddle keeps him honest; the class rise is the only credible argument against him being closer.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Spanish Voice
10/1Andrew Balding's yard at 23% and a 13lb weight drop gives Spanish Voice a live each-way claims; the going fit question is the only hedge on a bigger call.
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4Predicted 4th
Blue Rc
10/3The market has him at 10/3 but a 0-from-12 trainer and a 10lb weight spike after his last effort — that combination has beaten better horses than this.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Taritino
5/1Model's top pick by margin, back-to-back wins, 9-13 weight manageable, and a field that offers no compelling alternative despite the going flag.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Masterinthewoods
6/1Distance positive is real, model third, and a strong finishing effort last time at 9/4 shows class; the 8lb weight pull over Taritino adds appeal.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Akho Mezzna
7/2Buick at 21% is hard to ignore and the going suits (GF:+), but the trainer's 0-from-16 run and a decelerating form sequence cap the ceiling here.
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4Predicted 4th
Ohara
15/2Oisin Murphy at 22% strike rate, a 7lb drop in weight, and a hot yard at 17% makes Ohara the value outsider the market has potentially underrated at 15/2.
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