LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record

Race by Race

LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.

223 Races graded
58 · 26.6% Winners called (Slot 1)
141 · 64.7% Any of 4 came 1st
53.3% Pick-level frame rate
13 Perfect 1-2-3-4 in frame
  1. Tue 28 Jul 2026 · 17:20

    Goodwood · Bolney English Wine Fillies' Handicap Stakes

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Annastarzy

      4/1

      Three wins on the spin, the strongest form sequence in the field, top of the deterministic model at 6.64, and steaming from 14/1 to 4/1 — the market has found the same conclusion.

      Missed — Finished 6th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Rumba Numba

      11/2

      Varian at 37% in-yard is impossible to ignore; the 12lb weight rise is the worry, but a class drop and solid 124-15 form keeps her firmly in the mix.

      Placed — Finished 1st
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Crazee Icon

      6/1

      Ran to a near-favourite's level last three runs with form -52511 and Andrew Balding's yard is hot at 25%; distance is a mild query but the ability is there at 6/1.

      Missed — Finished 7th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Nanino Niyati

      13/2

      The 8lb weight drop is a genuine positive and the steaming market can't be dismissed, but the distance minus and unproven record at this class cap her ceiling.

      Placed — Finished 2nd
  2. Tue 28 Jul 2026 · 16:45

    Goodwood · British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes (Colts And Geldings Only)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner placed 3/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Final Objective

      9/2

      Steaming price backed by class drop and a 41-day freshener; Callum Rodriguez at 17% and a form structure that improves on context. The market move is organic, not vapour.

      Placed — Finished 4th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Launch Sequence

      15/8

      Burke's 30% yard form and Doyle in the saddle are real signals; the drift is a concern but not fatal — expect this horse to run into second rather than win.

      Placed — Finished 3rd
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Agrippa

      6/1

      Front-runner with an improving form line (5 then 2), a Richard Hannon yard at 12%, and Pat Dobbs up — if the pace collapses early, Agrippa could steal into the frame.

      Placed — Finished 1st
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Severn Councils

      5/1

      Ryan Moore at 27% career strike rate is the single most compelling jockey signal in the race; 66/1 last time to 5/1 today is a dramatic collapse in price worth respecting for a pl…

      Missed — Finished 8th
  3. Tue 28 Jul 2026 · 16:10

    Goodwood · Coral Rewards Shaker Handicap Stakes

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner placed 2/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Glamorous Breeze

      11/1

      Model top-ranked at 6.70; distance fit, going fit, yard 25% in 14 days, and a steamer from 20/1 to 11/1 — every signal is aligned in the same direction.

      Placed — Finished 3rd
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Twilight Calls

      8/1

      An 11lb weight drop and positive going fit give her real each-way claims; form string 586121 shows a mare in the best form of the field at the business end.

      Placed — Finished 1st
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Seven Questions

      10/1

      Second steamer in the race at 10/1 from 18/1; the market move carries this despite Robert Cowell's cold yard — money is the signal here and it's worth respecting.

      Missed — Finished 21st
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Lexington Blitz

      11/2

      Distance fit, going fit, form 19-313 shows a horse that belongs at this level; 11/2 in a 24-runner field represents genuine place value from a fresher runner.

      Missed — Finished 6th
  4. Tue 28 Jul 2026 · 15:35

    Goodwood · Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup Stakes (Group 1)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner placed 3/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Trawlerman

      2/1

      Model top-ranked at 6.87, form-positive, going-fit, and backed by the form's hottest yard at 47%. Buick's booking at this level is a statement of intent.

      Placed — Finished 2nd
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Scandinavia

      10/11

      Five-from-five record and Ryan Moore make her a serious threat, but the model scores her second at 6.50 and her yard runs at just 11% over 14 days — the form reads better than the…

      Placed — Finished 1st
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Rahiebb

      10/1

      Form shows a recent 8/1 run with a return to form implied; Varian's yard at 37% over 14 days is the second-hottest operation in the field and warrants each-way respect at 10/1.

      Nailed it · Finished 3rd
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Lazy Griff

      14/1

      Going-fit positive, freshest horse in the race at 24 days, and will set the pace from the front — likely to run on honourably before tiring late in a two-mile Group 1.

      Missed — Finished 7th
  5. Tue 28 Jul 2026 · 15:00

    Goodwood · Hkjc World Pool Lennox Stakes (Group 2)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner placed 3/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Qirat

      10/3

      Arrived off a win, down 2lb, with a hot trainer at 21% and a significant market move to 10/3. The form, the weight, the yard, and the money all point the same way.

      Placed — Finished 4th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Lake Forest

      11/8

      Still the market leader and Haggas does not send horses here without purpose, but the drift and the weight rise make him the danger rather than the banker.

      Placed — Finished 1st
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Rogue Diplomat

      11/1

      James Owen's yard is scorching at 34% and Rogue Diplomat has a '1' latest with strong distance and going fit — each-way claims are real at 11/1.

      Placed — Finished 2nd
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Marvelman

      5/1

      The Balding yard's 25% strike rate and the steaming price keep Marvelman in the frame, but two poor recent runs and unknown going make this a speculative fourth.

      Missed — Finished 6th
  6. Tue 28 Jul 2026 · 14:25

    Goodwood · Coral Vintage Stakes (Group 2)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner placed 2/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Al Hudaiba

      13/8

      Model-leader at 6.40, Appleby firing at 40% in 14 days, Buick booked, positive distance fit — three wins from completed runs says the form is genuine.

      Placed — Finished 3rd
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Undiscovered

      9/1

      Two wins from two, drops 5lb, Ralph Beckett's yard at 21% — a class rise of two grades is the only credible worry against an otherwise strong profile.

      Missed — Finished 6th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Dr Rascal

      17/2

      Back-to-back wins give Dr Rascal the joint-best form score in the model; the weight drop of 4lb helps, though the 9% trainer strike rate is a ceiling on confidence.

      Placed — Finished 1st
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Ruler's Control

      12/1

      Joseph Patrick O'Brien's yard runs at 30% and James Doyle's 18% career strike rate is respectable — but 40 days off track and thin form make this a place-only interest.

      Missed — Finished 5th
  7. Tue 28 Jul 2026 · 13:50

    Goodwood · Coral Chesterfield Cup Handicap Stakes

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Diego El Queso

      13/2

      Top of the deterministic model, race steamer, 11lb weight drop, distance and going both positive — G.M. Lyons has him primed and Colin Keane is the booking.

      Missed — Finished 6th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Noble Horizon

      5/1

      5/1 market leader, D:+ GF:+, won last time, and Oli Rix's tiny yard is running at 50% over 14 days — the double class-jump is the only real concern.

      Nailed it · Finished 2nd
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Yabher

      13/2

      Form string 1-0-1 in three completed runs this campaign; 6lb weight relief and a trip that fits — William Haggas horses off a short break at Goodwood carry weight.

      Missed — Finished 14th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Night Breeze

      16/1

      Last three form figures read 1-2-3; going fits (GF:+) and Ian Williams has three winners from 26 runners in the last fortnight — place claims are real at 16/1.

      Placed — Finished 3rd
  8. Sat 25 Jul 2026 · 17:20

    Ascot · Whispering Angel Handicap Stakes

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      All Ways Glamorous

      6/1

      Topped the deterministic model, going fit positive, distance fit positive, a win last time at 2/1, and an 11lb weight drop onto 9-4. The class rise is the only negative and the fo…

      Nailed it · Finished 1st
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Rocking Ends

      8/1

      Ran seven days ago and is clearly fit, going fit positive, and Tom Clover at 36% is the standout trainer stat in the race — dangerous at 8/1.

      Missed — Finished 5th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Getreadytorumble

      5/1

      Class drop, positive going and distance fit, and a market that has moved from 66/1 to 6/1 over three runs — Tom Marquand takes this hold-up horse into the mix late.

      Placed — Finished 2nd
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Indian Run

      13/2

      Recent form reads '7-8921' — three consecutive improvement runs — going fit is positive and the model rates her fourth; 13/2 is workable each-way money.

      Placed — Finished 3rd
  9. Sat 25 Jul 2026 · 16:45

    Ascot · Betfred Handicap Stakes

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Asmen Warrior

      9/2

      Model-topper at 5.62, yard running at 33%, Fallon at 20%, 5lb weight relief, positive going fit — every signal points the same direction.

      Missed — Finished 7th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Grizedale

      7/2

      Back-to-back form including two wins and Oisin Murphy in the saddle keeps him honest; the class rise is the only credible argument against him being closer.

      Missed — Finished 6th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Spanish Voice

      10/1

      Andrew Balding's yard at 23% and a 13lb weight drop gives Spanish Voice a live each-way claims; the going fit question is the only hedge on a bigger call.

      Nailed it · Finished 3rd
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Blue Rc

      10/3

      The market has him at 10/3 but a 0-from-12 trainer and a 10lb weight spike after his last effort — that combination has beaten better horses than this.

      Missed — Finished 10th
  10. Sat 25 Jul 2026 · 16:10

    Ascot · Ascot Shop Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner placed 2/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Taritino

      5/1

      Model's top pick by margin, back-to-back wins, 9-13 weight manageable, and a field that offers no compelling alternative despite the going flag.

      Placed — Finished 4th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Masterinthewoods

      6/1

      Distance positive is real, model third, and a strong finishing effort last time at 9/4 shows class; the 8lb weight pull over Taritino adds appeal.

      Nailed it · Finished 2nd
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Akho Mezzna

      7/2

      Buick at 21% is hard to ignore and the going suits (GF:+), but the trainer's 0-from-16 run and a decelerating form sequence cap the ceiling here.

      Missed — Finished 7th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Ohara

      15/2

      Oisin Murphy at 22% strike rate, a 7lb drop in weight, and a hot yard at 17% makes Ohara the value outsider the market has potentially underrated at 15/2.

      Missed — Finished 15th