LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Benvenuto Cellini
5/1Model-topper at 6.25, form string 113-11, Ryan Moore at 27% strike rate, and a 7lb weight advantage over the older horses — every material signal converges here.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Calandagan
13/8Model second at 6.22 with the strongest raw form score in the field (+1.2), but the 9-9 burden and Barzalona's 6% strike rate cap confidence against a lighter, better-ridden rival.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Kalpana
9/1Distance fit confirmed, Balding yard firing at 23%, and an improving sequence of 271-12 — she's the each-way play at a bigger price with genuine place claims.
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4Predicted 4th
Masquerade Ball
4/1Model third at 6.21 with strong form score (+1.2), but limited going and distance data in the field summary makes him a respected fourth rather than a win proposition.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Extremely Zain
2/1Unbeaten in three starts, Good ground suits, distance fits — the model's top score at 6.16 is earned. Class rise is the only doubt, but Haggas doesn't send improving 3yos here wit…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Mezcala
11/2Won at this class and trip combination, good ground is ideal, distance fits perfectly — but a 7lb hike on last win's mark is a genuine ceiling at 9-8.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Stellar Sunrise
18/1A 3yo dropping in class into a Balding yard running at 23%, with Oisin Murphy booked — good ground and seven furlongs both tick. Each-way play at 18/1.
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4Predicted 4th
Amazing Journey
13/2Jamie Osborne's yard is firing at 25% over 14 days; Amazing Journey drops 9lb and stays the trip — the handicapper may have given her a gift.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Touleen
4/5Distance and going both positive, down 5lb, William Buick booked, and the market at 4/5 reflects genuine confidence — the form string shows a filly capable of winning at this leve…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Kon Tiki
4/1Model's top-ranked horse, good to firm suits her, and Ryan Moore at 27% is hard to dismiss — a fresh yard would have made her the winner, but 11% over 14 days gives pause.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Skydance
9/1The pace map's lone front-runner, down 6lb, Oisin Murphy aboard at 22% — if she controls a gentle tempo and they can't reel her in, she claims a place at 9/1.
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4Predicted 4th
Pina Sonata
10/1Down 3lb from last run, James Fanshawe's yard at 15% is the joint-hottest in the field, and the form string includes a recent win — a quiet each-way interest at 10/1.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Glorious Game
14/1Model-top rated at 6.19 with a +1.1 form score and a 2-from-2 record; Colin Keane's booking confirms stable confidence and 14/1 represents a market error on a filly with nothing i…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Moonrise
13/2Form of 1-2 in two starts, Andrew Balding's yard firing at 23% over 14 days, and Oisin Murphy (22%) is the most dangerous jockey-trainer pairing chasing the winner.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Dark Issue
11/4Richard Hannon's 5.58-rated filly has shown sharp improvement across two starts but the form string of 1-4 means she's finished fourth in her most recent outing — a place rather t…
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4Predicted 4th
Nuit d'Eclair
14/1A winning debut and a hot trainer (25% strike rate) give her claims at 14/1, but the -0.5 class-change penalty and 22-day turnaround make this a stretch for more than a share of t…
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Never Enough
7/4The only runner combining a positive debut form line, the yard's 26% strike rate, and a top-tier jockey booking — the three most reliable signals in a debut-heavy field.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Tumishi
15/8Finished fourth on debut but the market has slashed him to 15/8, suggesting significant stable confidence — Fanshawe's 15% yard form keeps him honest as main danger.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Izuba
13/2Andrew Balding's yard is running at 23% and Oisin Murphy at 22% career strike rate — the most compelling debutant package in a thin field.
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4Predicted 4th
Crazee In Havana
11/1Eve Johnson Houghton at 17% on 30 runners and a model ranking of third among debutants makes this the most plausible outsider to frame the race.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Velvet Rhythm
10/3SR 90, 10lb weight drop, distance and going both positive, form string 114811 is the most consistent in the race — the conditions are tailored to her.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
All Moonshine
9/4SR 96 is the field's best and her form shows real quality, but a 20lb weight rise and a drifting market cap her chance at second.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Lightning Polka
4/1Steaming into 4/1 and Ed Walker's yard is in 20% form — SR 87 is workmanlike but the market move and trainer heat keep her in the frame.
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4Predicted 4th
Brisk Symphony
8/1Six pounds off her back and going fit flagged positive — she's the value outsider at 8/1 with the most convincing improving SP trend in the field.
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Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Satellite Of Love
7/2SR 156 is the class of this field, sole winner among the experienced runners, and a 1lb weight reduction to 9-6 barely registers as a concern. Cox's yard at 18% strike rate over 1…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Agrippa
3/1The strongest market signal in the race — steaming from 16/5 to 3/1 — allied with SR 154 and a 5lb weight drop. Hannon's 6-from-48 yard form gives the confidence some basis.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
California School
17/2SR 144 and Roger Varian's 23% 14-day strike rate — the sharpest trainer in the field — give this debut runner the best each-way credentials among the unraced contingent.
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4Predicted 4th
Untouchable
13/2SR 148 is second only to Satellite Of Love and Agrippa; Kevin Philippart De Foy's yard runs at 25% over 14 days, the highest in the field. Debut risk is the only caveat.
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Winner called 4/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Miss Scott
10/11Gosden yard at 50% in 14 days, steaming market from 5/4 to 10/11, and a solid 1-2 form line. The model's top pick at 5.81 for precisely these reasons — no argument here.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Manaar
5/4SR 156 is the highest in the field and her sole run produced a win, but the drift to 5/4, a 6lb weight rise, and a two-class jump temper confidence to second place.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Aura Champagne
17/2SR 147 is legitimately competitive and she drops 6lb against Manaar, but 302 days between runs with no prep race makes place-level the realistic ceiling today.
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4Predicted 4th
Aunt Roberta
33/1George Scott's yard is running at 29% and Aunt Roberta's SR 125 shows some ability, but a form figure of 6 and a 33/1 drift confirm the market sees no realistic threat.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Etienne
4/1SR 154 leads the field, weight of 8-8 gives a 13lb edge over the topweights, market steaming to 4/1, and David Egan at 14% provides the riding quality to match.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Angels Lane
12/1SR 143 off a winning debut and only 8-7 on the back — the ability is unquestionable; the concern is a 7% jockey and a trainer at 1-7 in the past fortnight.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Rollthedicebaby
5/1SR 89, steaming in the market, and a winning last run at 4/6 — Richard Hannon's yard has the numbers even at 12% and this one fits the each-way profile at 5/1.
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4Predicted 4th
Zigazig Ah
10/1SR 79, backed from 7/2 into 2/1 on debut then a follow-up win, steaming at 10/1 here — the market has found this filly late and the form of two wins makes her the value outsider.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Symbol Of Honour
4/1Appleby at 26%, Buick booked, SR 108 in a workably weak field — the drift is the only negative, and it's not enough to override the yard's current form.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Soldier's Tree
9/4SR 115 leads the field, weight relief of 2lb, distance fits — the model's top pick is genuine and will not be far away at the finish.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Binhareer
3/1SR 112 matches Song Of The Clyde, distance fits, Haggas sends horses to Newbury in good heart — each-way claims are real at 3/1.
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4Predicted 4th
Song Of The Clyde
5/1Model scores it second, SR 112 is legitimate, but that SPs collapse from 7/4 to 40/1 and back to 5/1 tells a story of inconsistency that keeps it out of the frame.
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