LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record

Race by Race

LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.

223 Races graded
58 · 26.6% Winners called (Slot 1)
141 · 64.7% Any of 4 came 1st
53.3% Pick-level frame rate
13 Perfect 1-2-3-4 in frame
  1. Sat 25 Jul 2026 · 15:35

    Ascot · King George Vi And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Group 1)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner placed 3/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Benvenuto Cellini

      5/1

      Model-topper at 6.25, form string 113-11, Ryan Moore at 27% strike rate, and a 7lb weight advantage over the older horses — every material signal converges here.

      Placed — Finished 3rd
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Calandagan

      13/8

      Model second at 6.22 with the strongest raw form score in the field (+1.2), but the 9-9 burden and Barzalona's 6% strike rate cap confidence against a lighter, better-ridden rival.

      Nailed it · Finished 2nd
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Kalpana

      9/1

      Distance fit confirmed, Balding yard firing at 23%, and an improving sequence of 271-12 — she's the each-way play at a bigger price with genuine place claims.

      Placed — Finished 1st
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Masquerade Ball

      4/1

      Model third at 6.21 with strong form score (+1.2), but limited going and distance data in the field summary makes him a respected fourth rather than a win proposition.

      Missed — Finished 7th
  2. Sat 25 Jul 2026 · 14:55

    Ascot · Moet & Chandon International Handicap (Heritage Handicap)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner placed 2/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Extremely Zain

      2/1

      Unbeaten in three starts, Good ground suits, distance fits — the model's top score at 6.16 is earned. Class rise is the only doubt, but Haggas doesn't send improving 3yos here wit…

      Placed — Finished 4th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Mezcala

      11/2

      Won at this class and trip combination, good ground is ideal, distance fits perfectly — but a 7lb hike on last win's mark is a genuine ceiling at 9-8.

      Missed — Finished 12th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Stellar Sunrise

      18/1

      A 3yo dropping in class into a Balding yard running at 23%, with Oisin Murphy booked — good ground and seven furlongs both tick. Each-way play at 18/1.

      Missed — Finished 14th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Amazing Journey

      13/2

      Jamie Osborne's yard is firing at 25% over 14 days; Amazing Journey drops 9lb and stays the trip — the handicapper may have given her a gift.

      Placed — Finished 1st
  3. Sat 25 Jul 2026 · 14:20

    Ascot · Longines Valiant Stakes (Group 3)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner placed 3/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Touleen

      4/5

      Distance and going both positive, down 5lb, William Buick booked, and the market at 4/5 reflects genuine confidence — the form string shows a filly capable of winning at this leve…

      Placed — Finished 4th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Kon Tiki

      4/1

      Model's top-ranked horse, good to firm suits her, and Ryan Moore at 27% is hard to dismiss — a fresh yard would have made her the winner, but 11% over 14 days gives pause.

      Placed — Finished 1st
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Skydance

      9/1

      The pace map's lone front-runner, down 6lb, Oisin Murphy aboard at 22% — if she controls a gentle tempo and they can't reel her in, she claims a place at 9/1.

      Nailed it · Finished 3rd
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Pina Sonata

      10/1

      Down 3lb from last run, James Fanshawe's yard at 15% is the joint-hottest in the field, and the form string includes a recent win — a quiet each-way interest at 10/1.

      Missed — Finished 5th
  4. Sat 25 Jul 2026 · 13:45

    Ascot · Princess Margaret Japan Cup Stakes (Group 3)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Glorious Game

      14/1

      Model-top rated at 6.19 with a +1.1 form score and a 2-from-2 record; Colin Keane's booking confirms stable confidence and 14/1 represents a market error on a filly with nothing i…

      Missed — Finished 9th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Moonrise

      13/2

      Form of 1-2 in two starts, Andrew Balding's yard firing at 23% over 14 days, and Oisin Murphy (22%) is the most dangerous jockey-trainer pairing chasing the winner.

      Placed — Finished 1st
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Dark Issue

      11/4

      Richard Hannon's 5.58-rated filly has shown sharp improvement across two starts but the form string of 1-4 means she's finished fourth in her most recent outing — a place rather t…

      Missed — Finished 8th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Nuit d'Eclair

      14/1

      A winning debut and a hot trainer (25% strike rate) give her claims at 14/1, but the -0.5 class-change penalty and 22-day turnaround make this a stretch for more than a share of t…

      Nailed it · Finished 4th
  5. Sat 25 Jul 2026 · 13:10

    Ascot · Dentakay EBF Crocker Bulteel "Confined" Maiden Stakes (Not Run More Than Once)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Never Enough

      7/4

      The only runner combining a positive debut form line, the yard's 26% strike rate, and a top-tier jockey booking — the three most reliable signals in a debut-heavy field.

      Nailed it · Finished 1st
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Tumishi

      15/8

      Finished fourth on debut but the market has slashed him to 15/8, suggesting significant stable confidence — Fanshawe's 15% yard form keeps him honest as main danger.

      Placed — Finished 3rd
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Izuba

      13/2

      Andrew Balding's yard is running at 23% and Oisin Murphy at 22% career strike rate — the most compelling debutant package in a thin field.

      Placed — Finished 2nd
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Crazee In Havana

      11/1

      Eve Johnson Houghton at 17% on 30 runners and a model ranking of third among debutants makes this the most plausible outsider to frame the race.

      Missed — Finished 6th
  6. Sat 18 Jul 2026 · 17:20

    Newbury · British Stallion Studs EBF Premier Fillies' Handicap Stakes

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner placed 3/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Velvet Rhythm

      10/3

      SR 90, 10lb weight drop, distance and going both positive, form string 114811 is the most consistent in the race — the conditions are tailored to her.

      Placed — Finished 3rd
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      All Moonshine

      9/4

      SR 96 is the field's best and her form shows real quality, but a 20lb weight rise and a drifting market cap her chance at second.

      Placed — Finished 1st
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Lightning Polka

      4/1

      Steaming into 4/1 and Ed Walker's yard is in 20% form — SR 87 is workmanlike but the market move and trainer heat keep her in the frame.

      Placed — Finished 4th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Brisk Symphony

      8/1

      Six pounds off her back and going fit flagged positive — she's the value outsider at 8/1 with the most convincing improving SP trend in the field.

      Missed — Finished 6th
  7. Sat 18 Jul 2026 · 16:47

    Newbury · Back The Super Boost At Betvictor Ebf Novice Stakes

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Satellite Of Love

      7/2

      SR 156 is the class of this field, sole winner among the experienced runners, and a 1lb weight reduction to 9-6 barely registers as a concern. Cox's yard at 18% strike rate over 1…

      Nailed it · Finished 1st
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Agrippa

      3/1

      The strongest market signal in the race — steaming from 16/5 to 3/1 — allied with SR 154 and a 5lb weight drop. Hannon's 6-from-48 yard form gives the confidence some basis.

      Nailed it · Finished 2nd
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      California School

      17/2

      SR 144 and Roger Varian's 23% 14-day strike rate — the sharpest trainer in the field — give this debut runner the best each-way credentials among the unraced contingent.

      Missed — Finished 6th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Untouchable

      13/2

      SR 148 is second only to Satellite Of Love and Agrippa; Kevin Philippart De Foy's yard runs at 25% over 14 days, the highest in the field. Debut risk is the only caveat.

      Missed — Finished 8th
  8. Sat 18 Jul 2026 · 16:12

    Newbury · Darley Ebf Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner called 4/4 in frame · Winner
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Miss Scott

      10/11

      Gosden yard at 50% in 14 days, steaming market from 5/4 to 10/11, and a solid 1-2 form line. The model's top pick at 5.81 for precisely these reasons — no argument here.

      Nailed it · Finished 1st
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Manaar

      5/4

      SR 156 is the highest in the field and her sole run produced a win, but the drift to 5/4, a 6lb weight rise, and a two-class jump temper confidence to second place.

      Nailed it · Finished 2nd
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Aura Champagne

      17/2

      SR 147 is legitimately competitive and she drops 6lb against Manaar, but 302 days between runs with no prep race makes place-level the realistic ceiling today.

      Nailed it · Finished 3rd
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Aunt Roberta

      33/1

      George Scott's yard is running at 29% and Aunt Roberta's SR 125 shows some ability, but a form figure of 6 and a 33/1 drift confirm the market sees no realistic threat.

      Nailed it · Finished 4th
  9. Sat 18 Jul 2026 · 15:37

    Newbury · Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes (GBB Race)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner placed 3/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Etienne

      4/1

      SR 154 leads the field, weight of 8-8 gives a 13lb edge over the topweights, market steaming to 4/1, and David Egan at 14% provides the riding quality to match.

      Placed — Finished 4th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Angels Lane

      12/1

      SR 143 off a winning debut and only 8-7 on the back — the ability is unquestionable; the concern is a 7% jockey and a trainer at 1-7 in the past fortnight.

      Nailed it · Finished 2nd
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Rollthedicebaby

      5/1

      SR 89, steaming in the market, and a winning last run at 4/6 — Richard Hannon's yard has the numbers even at 12% and this one fits the each-way profile at 5/1.

      Missed — Finished 11th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Zigazig Ah

      10/1

      SR 79, backed from 7/2 into 2/1 on debut then a follow-up win, steaming at 10/1 here — the market has found this filly late and the form of two wins makes her the value outsider.

      Placed — Finished 1st
  10. Sat 18 Jul 2026 · 15:02

    Newbury · Hallgarten And Novum Wines Hackwood Stakes (Group 3)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Symbol Of Honour

      4/1

      Appleby at 26%, Buick booked, SR 108 in a workably weak field — the drift is the only negative, and it's not enough to override the yard's current form.

      Nailed it · Finished 1st
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Soldier's Tree

      9/4

      SR 115 leads the field, weight relief of 2lb, distance fits — the model's top pick is genuine and will not be far away at the finish.

      Placed — Finished 3rd
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Binhareer

      3/1

      SR 112 matches Song Of The Clyde, distance fits, Haggas sends horses to Newbury in good heart — each-way claims are real at 3/1.

      Placed — Finished 4th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Song Of The Clyde

      5/1

      Model scores it second, SR 112 is legitimate, but that SPs collapse from 7/4 to 40/1 and back to 5/1 tells a story of inconsistency that keeps it out of the frame.

      Missed — Finished 7th