LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Winner called 4/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Naval Tribute
15/8Top of the deterministic model on form and market move, positive distance fit, and a form string showing two wins from last four completed runs — 11lb rise absorbed by the weight-…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
An Bradan Feasa
7/2Four consecutive places including a win on a positive distance profile; Murphy at 21% gives the ride a professional edge that keeps this firmly in the frame.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Campeona
4/1Prescott yard at 32% in 14 days and a class drop are genuine positives; the market drift tempers enthusiasm but she has the form to pick up a place.
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4Predicted 4th
Flash Kozo
5/2Last run ended in a place at 7/2 and the form has some upside, but Eustace yard at 0% over 14 days and a drifting price makes this an outsider at best.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Primo Lara
7/4Three consecutive market shortenings, consecutive wins embedded in a 625114 string, positive distance fit, class drop, and Loughnane booked at 19%. The evidence stacks.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Topteam
9/2Murphy at 21% on a class-drop runner that was once 6/4F is hard to dismiss; 98 days off costs it slot 1 but not the frame.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Whitcombe Rockstar
13/2The model's top pick has the biggest market move and a class drop, but 72 days off and two 25/1 runs before the latest steamer tempers conviction.
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4Predicted 4th
Tiernan
11/2Four placed runs in recent SPs including two favourites; Rossa Ryan at 17% keeps it in the frame despite the distance being an approximate fit.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Paradise Walk
5/1Class drop into Class 4, distance fit confirmed, Beckett yard at 20% strike rate, Rossa Ryan booked — every signal that matters points here.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Rumble Ruby
7/1Form string 031413 shows consistent presence in the finish; 4lb weight relief and distance fit make this a credible place candidate at 7/1.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Powdering
14/1Hold-up runner who benefits directly from a contested early pace set by Tarot and Eskimo Pie; form figure of '1' in the string and trainer on 20%.
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4Predicted 4th
Veil Of Clouds
15/8Raw ability is real — three successive favourite prices say so — but a 0-from-22 cold yard and a drifting market make a win hard to trust.
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Winner called 1/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Moonrise
11/4Top of the deterministic model on form and speed, Oisin Murphy booked, Balding yard at 15% — three runs of progressive winning form sets this up as her graduation race.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Adaay of Scarlett
7/2Third in the model, consistent presence in recent form (122225), distance fit confirmed, and likely to press the pace and stay honest over 6f.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Bated Benevolence
40/1Botti at 29% strike rate is impossible to ignore; form shows a 5/4 favourite win last time and this 40/1 price is wildly generous on trainer form alone.
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4Predicted 4th
Tawakal
9/4Unbeaten talent is real but Crisford at 0-from-22 over 14 days and a three-level class jump make 9/4 an overbet price on today's evidence.
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Winner placed 4/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Constitution Hill
10/3Two wins from two flat starts, the model's highest form driver at +1.1, and Henderson's yard in 50% form. The class-step penalty in the model underweights what a flawless record a…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Gethin
1/1Market's favourite for good reason — strong speed metric and consistent placing — but two beaten-favourite efforts in recent form stop me installing him at the top.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Warrant Holder
6/1Gosden yard running at 30% in 14 days and steaming in the market from 11/4F to 6/1; a horse stepping up in class who has the form line to place at this level.
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4Predicted 4th
Pride Of Arras
9/2Distance fit is the one clean positive marker and Ralph Beckett's yard at 20% keeps it honest, but an inconsistent form line — 014-82 — makes a place the ceiling here.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Nikovo
7/1Form arc 854331 is a horse peaking; 3lb weight relief offsets the class rise. Murphy at 21% and a 20%-striking yard make every signal point the same direction.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Victory Ace
11/2Three wins on the bounce — form reads 265111 — and a strong market move to 11/2 suggests the panel trusts the hat-trick. Class rise the one risk.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Warrior Mode
5/1Sir Mark Prescott striking at 32% over 14 days is the standout yard stat in the field; 5/1 with a form line ending 31 and a big weight drop of 18lb.
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4Predicted 4th
Two Tempting
10/1The steamer signal is real and the model leads with it, but a 5% trainer strike rate and going flag minus at Kempton cap confidence at a place at best.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Forest Berry
10/3Back-to-back wins, a 4lb weight drop, and Prescott's yard running at 32% — three converging signals that outweigh the market drift and Hogan's moderate book-wide strike rate.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Woodhay Wayfarer
5/2A price journey from 50/1 to 4/1 across three runs is not noise; it's a progressive filly improving fast, suited by the mile trip and carrying the right jockey in Loughnane.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Greek Symphony
5/1Consistent 1-3 finishes, an Oliver Cole yard running at 22%, and a genuine mile distance fit make Greek Symphony a reliable each-way proposition at 5/1 in a field of eight.
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4Predicted 4th
Attack Attack
16/1The steamer of the race — 16/1 from longer — and a class drop of one provides the value outsider angle, though raw form figures of 0035 demand a healthy scepticism.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Naana's Sparkle
5/1Top of the model ranking at 6.16, backed by positive distance and going fit, and the clearest market move of the day. Form string 14120 shows a horse in upward trajectory at this …
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Dream Composer
4/1Second in the model at 5.69 with positive going fit and strong recent form — 147154 is consistent. The hold-up concern is real but this horse is in form and carries the least weig…
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Lexington Blitz
11/2Speed is the primary positive driver at 0.5 in the model, and the Robert Cowell yard is ticking at 17% over 14 days. The 7lb weight rise is a concern but there's raw ability here.
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4Predicted 4th
All Ways Glamorous
7/1Form reading 39114 shows real ability and both distance and going fit are positive. Trainer at 0% over 14 days is a drag, but the course and conditions alignment makes this a plac…
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Winner placed 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Zachary Hickes
13/8Top of the deterministic model, steaming market move, Roger Varian firing at 27%, and a winning last run. Every signal is pointing the same direction — this is not a coincidence.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Arcturus Flame
7/2Cieren Fallon at 19% career strike rate, consistent recent form (5325V2), and the pace shape suits a hold-up or tracking runner. The Void run is notable but the horse keeps findin…
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Educator
17/2Back-to-back wins and both distance and going ticks make Educator hard to ignore for place money, even with a cold yard and a drifting price.
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4Predicted 4th
Caprelo
12/1Steaming market move this morning warrants attention; Rob Hornby takes a 1lb drop on a horse whose SP history (5/1, 13/2, 11/2) suggests it has been well-backed before at this lev…
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Tropical Sands
11/4Three-run improving arc, backed from 13/8 to 11/4 today; the deterministic model's top pick at 6.20 with a full point market-move bonus. The evidence points one way.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Evening Call
10/3Debut third for Haggas just fifteen days ago, Fallon booked at 19% strike rate; on a second run with a leading yard, she is the most credible danger to the favourite.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Marquetry
11/2Unraced, but Andrew Balding's yard is striking at 18% in 14 days and the model scores her third despite a blank form column — debut runners from hot yards deserve respect at 11/2.
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4Predicted 4th
Queen Of Scotland
4/1George Boughey's yard at 16% keeps Queen Of Scotland interesting at 4/1 despite no public form — but at shorter odds than Marquetry with the same blank slate, the value is questio…
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