LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Missed the frame 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Etonnante
10/1SR 152 leads the field by a clear margin, the market-move signal is strongly positive at +0.8, and Burke's filly has the speed driver to settle matters on good-to-firm Newmarket g…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Senorita Bonita
5/2Second in the deterministic ranking at 6.44 with Murphy riding and a positive market-move score; the SR gap to Etonnante is wide but she is the most credible threat on form and pr…
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Libertango
8/11Unbeaten form demands respect but the -0.6 market-move flag on a drifting favourite is too loud to ignore; third place on ability, behind her on the day.
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4Predicted 4th
Ruby Moon
25/1SR 131 and a clean winning form line give Ryan Moore something to work with; the -0.6 market-move signal keeps her out of the frame places.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Decade Of Time
6/1Three wins from three, the field's highest deterministic score at 6.38, and the strongest market move signal at +0.8 — the progressive three-year-old at a fair price.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Laureate Crown
9/2SR 105 is the field's highest rating and a 110 run sequence shows Hugo Palmer has him in career-best form; speed driver at +0.5 is second-best in the field.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Evanesco
9/2Deterministic rank second at 6.25 with a +0.8 market move matching Decade Of Time, but the 17-417 form string is less convincing than three consecutive wins.
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4Predicted 4th
Princling
9/4William Haggas and Tom Marquand are a dangerous combination, but a 22-145 form line at 9/4 favourite suggests the market is overstating recent improvement.
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Missed the frame 0/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Shipbourne
7/2SR 100, top-rated in the field, carrying 9-0 off a clean 13-1 form line with the strongest model score at 6.99 and a meaningful market-move signal backing the assessment.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Spanish Voice
9/2SR 96 with Ryan Moore and a 187101 form string demands respect, but 10-1 weight conceding 7lb to Shipbourne on this track is the ceiling.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
The Joker
15/2SR 91, lightly weighted at 8-10, and a 9-3321 form string showing progressive placed efforts — maps as the danger from off the pace at the right price.
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4Predicted 4th
Priapos
9/1SR 89, recent back-to-back wins (2-7411), and 9-7 in weight makes Priapos a genuine finisher — just a step behind the front three on ratings.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Morris Dancer
11/8SR 126 leads the field by twelve points, model-top scorer at 6.28, speed and form drivers both positive, Buick and Good to Firm all align without reservation.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Wild Desert
9/2SR 115, consistent 1232- form, Moore booked — the class-change drag from juvenile to Listed pulls him just short of Morris Dancer on the day.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Colori Forever
7/1SR 112, form positive on going and speed, model second-ranked among the chasing pack at 5.55 — Marco Ghiani capable of producing him for a late rattle.
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4Predicted 4th
Shayem
7/2SR 114, model score 5.44 edges Conclave, but 1-0542 form raises questions — likely fills a minor position without threatening the front two.
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Winner placed 4/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Tall Trees
13/2SR 150, model-second at 5.98, positive market-move driver, and Marquand booked — the improving form arc from debut to second run points to a filly ready to graduate today.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Peaceful Charm
4/7SR 156 is the class of the field and Buick won't be far back — but a debutante at 4/7 conceding nothing to exposed rivals is a short price for an unknown quantity.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Madam Secretary
17/2SR 148 and Ryan Moore for O'Brien at 17/2 is a combination that routinely runs into a place; a third on debut gives her a clear form line over the others outside the top two.
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4Predicted 4th
Scommessa Sicura
4/1Three consecutive seconds — form of 222 — shows Balding's filly is consistent and honest, but SR of 98 means the principals are in a different class once the pace tells.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Rebel's Romance
11/10SR-129 leads the field, deterministic score 6.44, form-string 3112-1 reads like a horse peaking at exactly the right moment under Buick on his favoured good-to-firm Newmarket surf…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Tenability
15/2SR-118, form 112-31, and Haggas's precision placement make Tenability the most dangerous threat; 15/2 is generous for a horse that has finished worse than third only once in five …
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Convergent
15/8SR-120 matches Almeric but the market rates Convergent significantly tighter; K. R. Burke's record with four-year-olds stepping up in class supports a podium finish, though the 11…
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4Predicted 4th
Almeric
13/2SR-120 and Oisin Murphy aboard keeps Almeric honest, but the 119-33 sequence trails off late and 13/2 reflects a horse whose ceiling has already been found.
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Missed the frame 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Sea Cookie
8/1Lowest effective weight in the field after Callan's claim, back-to-back wins in the form column, and a +0.8 market move all converge. Model top score of 6.66 confirmed by every co…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Thunder Call
7/2SR 101 leads the field on raw ability, and 02-11 form shows a horse on the upgrade; 8-13 is workable if the gallop is honest, which this pace map suggests it will be.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Red Spells Danger
13/2The -22112 sequence is the most consistent form string in the race and good-to-firm Newmarket is his ground, but 9-1 will cost him a length and a half at the business end.
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4Predicted 4th
Calico Blue
6/1SR 99 and 311-24 form show a consistent performer; Roger Varian's yard rarely sends them to Newmarket without a live chance, and the going credit is real.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Adaay Of Scarlett
2/1SR 121 is below Inner City Blues on raw rating, but four consistent starts of 1122, a positive market move of +0.8, and Oisin Murphy in the saddle give this a depth of evidence a …
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Inner City Blues
8/11SR 160 and a perfect record make Inner City Blues a genuine threat — but the -0.6 market move flag and a solitary run mean the model, and I, cannot fully trust the ceiling at 8/11.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Hickory Lad
15/2SR 105 and a tidy 2121 form string for Phillip Makin suggests a consistent if limited performer; 15/2 reflects his place ceiling in this company.
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4Predicted 4th
Persian Spring
16/1SR 82 and a form line of 510 leave Persian Spring completely outclassed in a Group 2 field; 16/1 is a fair reflection of his chances here.
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Winner placed 4/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Del Maro
13/8SR 119 leads the field by six points; positive market move and Buick retention are the two strongest signals in a thin five-runner Group 3. Class wins.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Point Of Law
10/3Consistent 214 form with speed and going positives; Gosden yard and Doyle booking on a horse whose form arc points upward. Underestimated at 10/3.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Galiyan
10/3Going fit is a genuine positive on fast ground; Murphy knows the Newmarket straight. Model scores this second but the form string of 416 is more ragged than Point Of Law's.
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4Predicted 4th
Nil Bua Gan Dua
7/1Ryan Moore adds intrigue but SR 103 and a speed deficit flagged in the model make this a fourth-at-best in this company despite the positive market move signal.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Spoken Truth
3/1SR 100 leads the field, 9-4 weight is competitive, and -42232 form shows relentless consistency. Oisin Murphy extracts full value from a true gallop set up by the front pair.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Point Of Contact
7/4SR 97 with Moore in the saddle and a light 9-6 weight keeps it honest, but at 7/4 the market has priced out the margin for error against a superior-rated rival.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Cloth Of Gold
9/1Form figures /01-02 reveal a horse that wins when conditions suit; 9-4 weight and Loughnane's 7lb claim make the handicapper's mark look workable at 9/1.
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4Predicted 4th
Rathgar
9/1Improving 4119 form sequence is the most compelling upward trajectory in the field; 9-12 weight is the ceiling on how far that improvement can carry him today.
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