LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Opportunity
9/4Top of the deterministic model, confirmed distance and going fit, consecutive wins, Haggas yard at 18% and Doyle aboard — every corroborating signal points here.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
In My Teens
7/2Form string 122-91 reads close enough to be dangerous and Oisin Murphy's 21% career strike rate demands respect, even with Cromwell's yard running cold.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Al Aasy
5/2Nine-year-old veteran with a going-fit positive and Marquand booked; form figures 159-21 show consistency, though that 4/9 last run leaves questions about ceiling.
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4Predicted 4th
Enfjaar
10/1Roger Varian's yard leads the trainer-strike driver at 36% from 28 runners — if the stable is spotting something the market hasn't, the 10/1 is the price that makes this interesti…
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Valedictory
5/2Lone front-runner, won last time out, Buick booked, lightest serious weight at 9-2, Gosden yard at 17% — the race shape is built for him to control and never be caught.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Aeronautic
5/1The 12/1-to-5/1 steam is a signal too loud to ignore; O'Brien's yard in form at 20% and a 5lb pull on the topweight gives him every chance of finishing second if he can close the …
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Hopewell Rock
15/2Steaming in the market, Ryan Moore aboard at 27% strike rate, going suits — he'll press from midfield but catching Valedictory from off the pace without a true gallop to chase is …
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4Predicted 4th
Sing Us A Song
11/2James Doyle at 18%, Ralph Beckett's yard present, form reads 71-325 with consistency — at 11/2 this is the each-way outsider with a tell if the closers get into it.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Room Fourteen
7/4Form reads four finishes of 1, 1, 2, 3 in reverse; 5lb weight relief, positive going and distance fit, Ryan Moore booked, and steaming market — every credible signal points here.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Silver Lake
5/4Won last time out at 5/6, steaming again to 5/4, and Haggas yard running at 19% over 14 days; the main danger if Room Fourteen doesn't quite see out the trip.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Lady Dora Mae
11/1The steamer from 16/1 to 11/1 is a real signal and the distance fits, but a sixth last time and 14lb more weight than her last run is a steep ask.
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4Predicted 4th
Zgharta
5/1Oisin Murphy and a Balding yard firing at 20% over 14 days give this drifter residual interest; recent form of 40-604 limits confidence to a place at best.
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Winner called 4/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Into The Light
5/2Appleby at 37%, Buick at 20%, class drop from higher grade, and a controlled pace set up by a lone front-runner — every structural signal points here.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Devil's Peak
17/2Last run was a winning one, going fit is flagged positive, and Gosden yard sits at 26% — makes him the most credible danger to the favourite.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Astracornus
9/2The weight drop of 15lb and market steam are hard to ignore, even with the going-minus flag and a cold trainer — place money is reasonable at 9/2.
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4Predicted 4th
Waterford Castle
8/1Six consecutive placed or near-placed runs show consistency; 8/1 with a clear pace shape to aim at makes this the value outsider of the quartet.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Innichen
4/1Back-to-back wins, six-pound weight drop, 23% trainer strike rate, and a steaming market move to 4/1 — every signal points here. The pace scenario suits a closer.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
The Dancing Pirate
11/2Oisin Murphy at 22% and a steaming market move demand respect; the distance minus flag and two-class rise keep him off the top slot.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Revels
9/1K.R. Burke at 22% yard form and a class drop of one with a win on the form string; the trip and going unknowns limit confidence but the price compensates.
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4Predicted 4th
Persian Spring
7/1Steaming hard to 7/1 from 33/1 last time with a hot Hannon yard behind it — the market move is the tell, even if the form string's terminal zero asks questions.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Boiling Point
9/2Top of the deterministic model, steaming market, Burke at 22%, class drop, and a distance-positive tag — every material signal points the same direction.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Crown Of Oaks
17/2Form reads 1131-7 with strong course-appropriate distance fit; William Haggas yard at 19% and a going-positive rating makes Crown Of Oaks the most credible danger.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Jonquil
7/1Andrew Balding at 20% and a steaming market gives Jonquil the each-way case, but the Δ+9lb weight swing against modest recent form caps confidence at place chance.
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4Predicted 4th
Haatem
11/4Past form as a market leader is real, but two blanks, a drifting price, and a going-minus flag on Good to Firm make this a short price for a horse going the wrong way.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Night Raider
9/4The steaming market, Burke's 22% yard form, Doyle's booking, and a form sequence showing back-to-back placed runs at this level make him the most evidence-supported winner in the …
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Rumstar
5/1Portman's yard is running at 21% and his last-run win at 100/30 showed genuine Group-level pace; the neutral going fit is a minor concern but he is the main danger.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Aspect Island
16/1James Owen at 36% in 14 days is the standout yard statistic in the entire field, and at 16/1 the 3yo with distance fit and a sharp trainer is the each-way play.
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4Predicted 4th
Partisan Hero
16/1Course-and-distance fit reads double positive and recent form shows a consistent placed record, but the trainer's 0-from-19 run in 14 days is a hard number to ignore at a bigger p…
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Missed the frame 0/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Indalo
5/1Varian at 42% yard strike rate, steamer market move, won last time, positive distance and going fit. The evidence stack is as clean as it gets in an open Heritage Handicap.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Beagle Bay
SPForm line 2-1411 shows consecutive wins, positive distance fit, and Hector Crouch retains the ride. Rates the most likely horse to trouble the winner at a price worth noting.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Mister Winston
18/1Oisin Murphy's 22% career strike rate is the best in the field, the steamer signal is real, and Andrew Balding's yard is operating at 20% — a dangerous each-way combination at 18/…
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4Predicted 4th
Ebt's Guard
17/2Muir and Grassick at 23% yard strike rate and a confirmed steamer signal provide enough reason to include as a longer each-way option, even with the going marked as a negative.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Talk Of New York
8/15Form reads 1-3113 — consistent, progressive, winning. Appleby at 37% and Buick at 20% career strike rate; the infrastructure around this horse is the best in the race.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Shayem
17/2Model's top pick and the morning's steamer. Won last time, carries 2lb less than his previous run, Burke's yard at 22% — the most credible threat to the favourite.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Saber Strike
7/1Form includes a win and two places at this class; Haggas at 19% gives him a yard platform, though the drift to 7/1 and a 4lb weight rise tempers confidence.
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4Predicted 4th
Yazin
12/1Ryan Moore retains the ride and the Gosden yard runs at 26%, but a Δdrifter signal in a field this small is a clear enough warning to drop him to the frame.
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Awaiting result 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Believitanducan
11/2Three-timer on the bounce, lone prominent runner in the pace map, Buick retained, still carrying only 8-10 after a 10lb drop — form and race shape both point here.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Defiantly
5/1Joseph O'Brien's yard at 20% strike rate, Dylan Browne McMonagle aboard at 15%, and 5/1 offers genuine each-way appeal as the market's second most interesting runner.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Valiancy
5/2William Haggas at 19% yard form and a hold-up style that suits a strong pace, but 4lb up and a '6' last time limits confidence to a place at best.
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4Predicted 4th
Sea Of Kings
14/1Steaming from 10/1, Harry Eustace's yard at 20%, and a form line reading '22' — placed twice in recent starts suggests a live each-way outsider at the price.
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