LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record

Race by Race

LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.

223 Races graded
58 · 26.6% Winners called (Slot 1)
141 · 64.7% Any of 4 came 1st
53.3% Pick-level frame rate
13 Perfect 1-2-3-4 in frame
  1. Fri 19 Jun 2026 · 15:05

    Ascot · Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) (No Geldings)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Venetian Sun

      13/8

      SR-124 leads the field by 8 points over the next-best filly; 113-01 form on Good to Firm, the true pace she needs, and 13/8 market weight all align.

      Nailed it · Finished 1st
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Havana Anna

      14/1

      SR-116 is the field's second-highest rating; 1220-1 form including a recent win makes her the most credible chaser at 14/1.

      Placed — Finished 4th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Albert Einstein

      11/2

      SR-112 with Ryan Moore booked and a 11-632 form line that includes two early wins; Moore's Ascot record adds weight to a place claim at 11/2.

      Missed — Finished 14th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Wise Approach

      10/1

      SR-112 for Appleby and Buick with a 131-54 form line; the class is there even if recent figures have dipped, and Appleby fires at Ascot.

      Missed — Finished 22nd
  2. Fri 19 Jun 2026 · 14:30

    Ascot · Albany Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Missed the frame 3/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Silent Beauty

      6/1

      SR 155, clean winning form, David Egan booked, and a stable sending multiple runners in confidence. Five SR points behind Sun Goddess but 4/1 better in the market.

      Missed — Finished 23rd
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Sun Goddess

      6/5

      SR 160 leads the field and Ryan Moore does not get on favourites at Royal Ascot by accident — she'll be placed, but 6/5 is a price that demands perfection.

      Nailed it · Finished 2nd
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Libertango

      17/2

      SR 152, unbeaten in one start, George Boughey's yard in form and Billy Loughnane's association with this trainer has produced winners at this level before.

      Placed — Finished 1st
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Light Of Dawn

      7/1

      SR 154 is the third-highest in the field, James Doyle aboard, K R Burke's fillies regularly run their race at Ascot — holds her place in the frame comfortably.

      Placed — Finished 3rd
  3. Thu 18 Jun 2026 · 18:10

    Ascot · Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Cosi Bello

      7/1

      Form of 1124-1 is the race's strongest recent sequence; 9-4 weight is workable, and 7/1 reflects genuine market respect in a 32-runner field.

      Missed — Finished 10th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Royal Velvet

      12/1

      SR 92, form 815-11, William Buick in the saddle — the weight of 9-9 is the only real drag on a horse that arrives in form.

      Missed — Finished 25th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      River King

      11/1

      Form 231-21 under 9-2 for a yard that knows handicaps; Pat Dobbs has placed this horse consistently and the weight is fair.

      Missed — Finished 5th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Mezcala

      14/1

      Form 127-13 for Jack Channon shows a horse capable of hitting the frame; 9-1 weight and Tom Marquand in the plate makes 14/1 a reasonable each-way marker.

      Placed — Finished 1st
  4. Thu 18 Jun 2026 · 17:35

    Ascot · Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Morshdi

      7/1

      SR-leader in the field at 104, a six-point edge over the next-best. Haggas form travels, Marquand suits, and a genuine pace set up by Generic plays directly to his late kick.

      Missed — Finished 9th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Endorsement

      9/4

      SR 99 and Ryan Moore will not let him drift far from the frame; the inconsistency in his form stops him getting past Morshdi but the talent is there for a placed effort.

      Nailed it · Finished 2nd
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Maho Bay

      8/1

      Buick on a horse that already has a win on the board (1-14 form), and the pace shape suits his pressing style; SR 96 is workable at this price.

      Missed — Finished 5th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Oxagon

      7/1

      Oisin Murphy on a Gosden-trained runner at 7/1 demands respect despite SR 97 and patchy form; the step up in trip could unlock something but the evidence is thin.

      Missed — Finished 10th
  5. Thu 18 Jun 2026 · 16:50

    Ascot · Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Colts & Geldings)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Missed the frame 0/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Laureate Crown

      14/1

      SR 87, back-to-back wins, 3lb lighter than top-rated Organise, Jamie Spencer waiting tactics built for exactly this race shape at 14/1.

      Missed — Finished 12th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Organise

      15/2

      Field-topping SR 89, James Doyle booked, and 1-12 recent form is solid — but 9-7 on the back of a near-miss last time is a genuine ask in a 32-runner cavalry charge.

      Missed — Finished 15th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Langstone

      12/1

      SR 86, form reads 5-112 — progressive, light weight at 8-13, and Rob Hornby is a competent big-field Ascot pilot for Clive Cox, a trainer who targets these races.

      Missed — Finished 16th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      We're Goosers

      8/1

      SR 87 with Oisin Murphy engaged at 8/1 is a serious pairing, but 221-61 form reads as a horse finding improvement harder to come by at this class level.

      Missed — Finished 30th
  6. Thu 18 Jun 2026 · 16:15

    Ascot · Gold Cup (Group 1)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Scandinavia

      13/8

      SR 109 leads the field, form 111-11 is the most consistent sequence in the race, and Moore delivers winners at this level when the horse warrants it.

      Nailed it · Finished 1st
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Rahiebb

      4/1

      Last-run winner, SR 108, and Varian's record with stayers at peak fitness; 2342-1 shows he runs his race every time and will chase the winner home.

      Missed — Finished 8th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Trawlerman

      7/2

      SR 112 is the highest in the field and Buick rarely wastes a journey; fitness post-break is the caveat, but class will drag him into the frame.

      Placed — Finished 2nd
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Caballo De Mar

      9/1

      Last-run second gives Caballo De Mar solid recent form credentials and Oisin Murphy will ensure he's competitive over this trip, but SR 107 caps his ceiling.

      Missed — Finished 11th
  7. Thu 18 Jun 2026 · 15:40

    Ascot · Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Dark Lucinda

      20/1

      SR-138 is the highest in the field, her unbeaten record holds up under scrutiny, and 20/1 is a significant market misread against a field topped by SR-104 at favourite.

      Missed — Finished 9th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Legacy Link

      13/8

      SR-104, positive recent form of 314-12, Gosden yard, Keane in the saddle — she runs her race to the line but the SR gap to the winner is decisive.

      Missed — Finished 7th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Gilded Prize

      7/2

      Murphy will get a strong tune out of her and the 7/2 market price reflects genuine each-way claims, but SR-102 and two recent defeats at the top level cap her ceiling here.

      Nailed it · Finished 3rd
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Earth Shot

      11/2

      SR-94 is modest but her 2-12 form includes a win at this class of race, and Doyle can coax a forward-jumping display that earns a place in the frame if pace is slow.

      Placed — Finished 1st
  8. Thu 18 Jun 2026 · 15:05

    Ascot · King George V Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Arc Ole Ole

      12/1

      Back-to-back wins, featherweight 8-8, and a pace set up for late finishers — this horse's trajectory is the sharpest in the field at a price the market has left unattended.

      Missed — Finished 5th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Into The Light

      5/1

      Form 122, William Buick engaged, SR 70 is low but the 5/1 market signal is the strongest in the race — prominent run likely to collect a place at minimum.

      Missed — Finished 11th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Enceladus

      10/1

      Ryan Moore, 8-12, form ending in a win — the 33-1 last run was a step up and Moore rarely wastes a ride in a Heritage Handicap at this level.

      Placed — Finished 1st
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Heyzoom

      13/2

      Form 3-21 shows a recent win, 8-8 weight, and Saffie Osborne's booking at 13/2 implies stable confidence in a horse that handles a good-ground mile-and-three.

      Nailed it · Finished 4th
  9. Thu 18 Jun 2026 · 14:30

    Ascot · Chesham Stakes (Listed Race)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Sea Venture

      11/2

      SR 138 on 9-0 weight is the single best combination of class and weight allowance in the race; George Scott's filly is unbeaten and gets a true gallop to aim at.

      Missed — Finished 6th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Time For The Moon

      6/1

      Joint-highest SR at 137, market support at 6/1, and a trainer in Charlie Johnston who rarely misses at this level with a prepared juvenile.

      Missed — Finished 10th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Aperoll

      9/1

      SR 138 and the same weight relief as Sea Venture at 9-0; Richard Hannon's colt gets the trip and Pat Dobbs keeps it simple from a clean draw.

      Nailed it · Finished 3rd
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Aix La Chapelle

      7/4

      SR 135 with Ryan Moore aboard keeps him in the frame, but topweight of 9-5 against higher-rated rivals on lighter terms erodes the market case.

      Awaiting result
  10. Wed 17 Jun 2026 · 18:10

    Ascot · Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Sergei Diaghilev

      unpriced

      Ryan Moore's booking for O'Brien's sole runner, a clean winning debut, and the pace setup across a true six furlongs all point here. SR 135 is honest but the connections elevate t…

      Missed — Finished 9th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Moonrise

      unpriced

      SR 138 — the joint-top mark — with an 8-11 pull in the weights and a winning debut under PJ McDonald for Balding. Three pounds lighter than most rivals is a real asset in a sprint…

      Nailed it · Finished 2nd
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      A Bear Affair

      unpriced

      Joint-top SR 138 and a solid form string of 1-3-7 showing genuine placed consistency. Sean Levey and Richard Hannon know Ascot sprints; this colt picks up prize money.

      Missed — Finished 6th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Celeron

      unpriced

      Unbeaten, Colin Keane booked from the O'Callaghan yard, SR 135 is competitive. Front-running style risks getting swamped late but the talent to fill a place is clearly there.

      Missed — Finished 15th