LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Gregory
3/1Model-top on 6.31, back-to-back wins, Gosden yard at 19%, Good going confirmed as a positive — Doyle rides a horse campaigned perfectly for this day.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Caballo de Mar
9/2Won last two starts, distance and going suit, carrying 3lb less than last time — Murphy's 22% strike rate makes this the clearest each-way threat to Gregory.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Highwayman
5/2Three wins on the spin from 22/1 to 5/2 is explosive form, and at 9-2 he carries the lightest weight — a three-year-old allowance can matter in a Group 1 slog.
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4Predicted 4th
Daiquiri Bay
17/2Form reads 53-111 — three wins on the bounce — and William Buick's 25% strike rate is the best jockey figure in the field; 17/2 represents real each-way value at this price.
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Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Night In Vegas
4/1Three consecutive wins at the same class, all as market favourite, paired with a steaming market move today. The model's positive going and form drivers both point here, and the p…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Satellite of Love
4/1The model's top-ranked horse: Cox's red-hot yard at 29%, Rossa Ryan in confident form, a steamer to match Night In Vegas. The 11521 form contains wobbles but the recent 1/1F win i…
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Inner City Blues
4/1Charlie Appleby at 30% yard strike rate is the second hottest trainer in the race; William Buick at 25% is the standout jockey booking. Three-from-three starts as favourite tells …
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4Predicted 4th
Victory Gold
22/1Oisin Murphy at 22% riding for a yard returning two winners from nine runs — 22% — in the 14-day window. The 240121 form is inconsistent but the two most recent digits are 2 and 1…
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Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Loz Vegas
8/1Chapple-Hyam at 25% yard form, a 7/4 favourite tag last time out, and a steamer to 8/1 today — the market is correcting, not discovering. Soft ground is the only query, but the di…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Kissmehoneyhoney
15/2Seven pounds lighter than last run, Tom Marquand booked, and Haggas near a hot 19% yard strike rate — this 15/2 shot is on the right side of the weights and with the right connect…
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Ashnak
4/1The model's second pick and the market's steamer; O'Meara at 12% yard form and Tudhope are credible, but the five-pound weight rise and negative going flag cap the ceiling here.
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4Predicted 4th
Per Contra
9/1Form reading 048313 shows genuine recent consistency at a class level, and Tim Easterby's 10-from-83 yard form is solid; 9/1 is a workable price for a horse that keeps running int…
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
All In You
9/2Greatrex at 27% yard form is the dominant signal in this field; a class drop, a strong prior win marker in the form string, and 9/2 represents fair value for the most in-form stab…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Alfred Wincham
11/2Patrick Neville's yard is operating at an extraordinary 67% in the last 14 days and a lone front-runner on soft ground over this trip with a weight drop of 8lb is a genuine on-pac…
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Minstrel Knight
10/1Distance and going both tick positively, Tudhope holds the best jockey strike rate in the field at 18%, and the steamer move says the market knows something the form string 020-00…
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4Predicted 4th
Master Builder
15/2The model's top-ranked horse gets weight from me here: going tick and class drop are real, but 50 days off and a Menuisier yard at 9% in the last fortnight are hard to dismiss at …
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Coloniser
7/2Tops the deterministic model at 4.93 and the drifts on Iron Stone Lad and National Anthem compress this race back to Coloniser's favour. Brian Meehan's 14% yard strike rate is ade…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
National Anthem
5/2Gosden at 31% in the last 14 days is impossible to ignore for a debut runner; the drift is a caution but the yard form overrides it for a place call.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Iron Stone Lad
7/4The Haggas second on debut has the form to place, but a drift from 3/1 to 7/4 — the model's heaviest single negative — pushes him to third at best.
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4Predicted 4th
Youcanbetheone
11/2A third-place debut finish gives Youcanbetheone more form to point to than most here; Quinn's yard at 15% is reasonable and the price has some appeal each-way.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Pellitory
9/2Model-topping 6.76 score driven by the field's strongest market move, credible speed score, and positive form — steaming from 16/1 to 9/2 despite a weight penalty is the clearest …
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Binhareer
9/2Second in the model at 6.56 with Haggas firing at 19% and Marquand booked; his going score is neutral on soft but the trainer form and market confidence make him the principal dan…
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Coul Angel
11/2Fourth in the model with the strongest pure form score among the mid-price runners; a last-run effort at 7/2F shows she's capable of threatening at this level.
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4Predicted 4th
U Sure Do
22/1Back-to-back wins in form string (698711), goes well on soft, and arrives on a light weight of 9-0 — Easterby's yard at 12% is modest but the horse's own profile is the tell here.
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Missed the frame 0/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Weffaag
9/4Three-year-old on a progressive form arc, three odds-on starts, Haggas at 19% and Marquand booked. Distance fit confirmed (D:+) on soft ground. The right favourite.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Canvas
5/1Steamed into 5/1 from 20/1 over last three runs; the only named prominent runner gives it a pace advantage. Form finishing 221 is solid but the class rise is a small worry.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Frankies Dream
15/2Candlish yard at 17%, Oisin Orr booked, and a steamer into 15/2 from a most-recent SP of 5/2F — this horse knows how to finish in the frame and the market is with it.
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4Predicted 4th
Sailthisshipalone
12/1Form string of 439331 finishing with a win, going fit confirmed (GF:+), Ivan Furtado's yard running at 16% — a 12/1 drifter worth watching for each-way purposes.
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Missed the frame 0/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Water To Wine
6/1Unbeaten in three, drops a class, Gosden yard at 31% strike rate — the 113-day absence is the only counter-argument, and a hot stable doesn't bring this filly back cold.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Nobody Knows
6/1Form reads 1-13 with two wins at the head of the market; returning from 169 days but Richard Hughes's yard is firing at 17% and this three-year-old has shown a consistent ability …
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Shadow Road
13/2Three runs, form 412, beaten just over a length last time at 5/1 — class rise is the flag but a 12lb pull in the weights and David Egan in the saddle makes this each-way live at 1…
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4Predicted 4th
Stoneacre Donny
10/1A steamer into 10/1 with distance fit marked plus and going form marked positive — Tim Easterby's yard at 12% is modest but market confidence here is doing real work.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Dubai Champion
11/2Deterministic score of 6.01, distance plus flag, and a form string showing four placed efforts from five runs at six furlongs — cleaner credentials than the steamer Big Cigar whos…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Big Cigar
11/1The strongest market move in the field lifts it to the top of the model ranking, and Fahey's yard is ticking over at 12% — but two consecutive poor runs stop it going to slot 1.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Divine Whisper
5/1Three runs, two wins, consecutive big-price shortening in the SPs suggests rapid improvement; Tom Marquand at 16% is the sharpest jockey booking in the field.
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4Predicted 4th
Battle Fever
9/1The 6lb weight drop is the most significant handicap adjustment in the race; consistent form string of 23123 at the trip makes it a credible each-way outsider at 9/1.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Magic Boy
6/1Distance positive, going positive, class level, two consecutive market-favourite endorsements from Tinkler's yard, and a closing form figure of 3. Every core filter aligns.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Quest For Fun
15/2Second in the model on speed and form signals, Tim Easterby's yard running at 14%, and recent form showing a 2 last time. Distance and going negatives keep him off the top.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Kennington
14/1A confirmed steamer, going positive, a youth profile (3yo) with a 3-1 sequence opening his form string, and Hughie Morrison placing him selectively at York.
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4Predicted 4th
Son
11/1Fifth in the model on speed, Tim Easterby at 14% yard form, and a significant 19lb weight drop from last run makes him dangerous late in a big field.
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