LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Fans Favourite
4/1Form string 311531 is the most consistent in the field; 1lb lighter than the co-top-rated Almekarem; Murphy at 22% is the decisive jockey edge in a wide-open race.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Almekarem
4/1Co-leader of the deterministic model at 6.15, Prescott's yard in 21% form, and SR 82 is legitimate — the weight burden of 10-2 is the single reason he finishes second rather than …
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Everyoneknowsadave
6/1SR 83 is the highest in the field, form shows a recent second and fourth with a win mixed in, but Jessica Macey's yard at 0-from-10 in 14 days is a cold dampener on the each-way c…
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4Predicted 4th
Something Splendid
15/2Peter Chapple-Hyam at 40% in the last fortnight is the hottest yard stat on the card; a recent win and distance and going fits (D:+ GF:+) make this the standout each-way outsider.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Henley On Thames
5/1Model top-rank at 7.54, SR 88, back-to-back wins, two-class drop, hot yard at 22%, and strongest market move in the field. The pace map is tailor-made.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Launch Sequence
7/2SR 87, K.R. Burke's yard operating at 26% — the best trainer strike rate in the field — and James Doyle booked at 21%. Three placed runs suggest consistent effort without winning.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Pride Of Toledo
10/3SR 90 is the highest in the field and the steamer from 28/1 to 10/3 is dramatic, but a +7lb weight rise and a hold-up style in a race that may not truly set up for closers gives m…
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4Predicted 4th
Tumishi
10/1SR 78, a last-run win at 8/11F showing genuine ability, and James Fanshawe's yard at 24% — strong each-way claims at 10/1 for a horse dropping 3lb from its winning run.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Victoria Night
4/5SR 160 is top-class for this field; a steam from 7/1 to 4/5 in a maiden with minimal public form signals genuine inside confidence. Speed score and market move are the two stronge…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
She's Got A Way
3/1SR 154 underpins a genuine each-way claim; Burke at 26% and Ryan Moore's booking make her the most dangerous rival, even if the drift from 11/4 to 3/1 is a mild concern.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Antonova
9/2SR 152 matches Awwjaan's rating but Haggas at 24% over 14 days gives Antonova a fractional edge in trainer form for a placing claim at a double-figure price.
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4Predicted 4th
Awwjaan
6/1SR 152 is credible but Awwjaan drifted with no compensating positive signal in the model — -1.0 market move is the worst in the field and is hard to argue past.
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Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Silver Lake
7/4Field-best SR of 100, Haggas yard at 24% strike rate, Doyle booked, confirmed Δsteamer. Three wins in last four starts and the market has been right about her every time.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Ruby Wedding
4/1SR 94, Δsteamer at 4/1, Oisin Murphy at 22% career strike rate — the strongest market move among the dangers; Andrew Balding at 19% keeps her firmly in the frame.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Room Fourteen
5/1SR 93, consistent form string 312113 showing she rarely runs a bad race; Fanshawe's yard at 24% doubles the interest and she's shed 2lb since last run.
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4Predicted 4th
Nochebuena
9/2SR 98 makes her technically the second-highest-rated filly in the field, but a 17lb weight rise and 63 days off are enough to keep her out of the first three at 9/2 drifting.
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Missed the frame 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Winday
7/2Lightest weight in the race at 8-10, a course-fresh win last time at 11/8, SR 102 competitive here, Buick booked, and steaming in the market — every signal points the same way.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Caballo De Mar
6/4SR 119 is the class ceiling of this field and Oisin Murphy at 22% strike rate keeps it relevant despite the drift and the top weight.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Beylerbeyi
4/1SR 98 gives it a base, and 4/1 in a thin field is live each-way money even if Ian Williams's yard form is a concern.
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4Predicted 4th
Ascending
6/1Steaming from 28/1 into 6/1 is a credible market signal; De Bromhead's yard at 17% over the fortnight is the corroborating nudge for a placing spot.
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Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Final Objective
11/4SR 117 leads the field, yard at 20% in 14-day form, James Doyle aboard at 21%, won last time out. Every signal — speed, market move, form — points the same direction.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Flann Sunna
3/1SR 106, 4-star AI, William Buick at 25% strike rate, and a form string of 115 showing real class — the 43-day layoff is the only genuine caveat against a winning case.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Carry The Flag
10/3Lone front-runner with Ryan Moore aboard gives Carry The Flag pace control; SR 113 and a steaming market move make this a genuine each-way proposition at 10/3.
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4Predicted 4th
Sale Shark
11/2SR 106, Oisin Murphy at 22%, and a solid 15541 form string — distance fit is confirmed and this is a horse capable of picking up the pieces at 11/2.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Anthropologist
4/1Top of the deterministic model, biggest market move in the race (7/1 to 4/1), and hold-up style ideally positioned for a pace set by two genuine front-runners.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Caragio
9/2Highest SR in the field at 80, second in the model, steaming in the market — the main danger, but 89 days off and a trainer on 0-from-7 create a small but real shadow.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Celtic Chariot
17/2Only hold-up horse with a confirmed distance fit, form string ends 1-1-6 over recent starts, and light weight of 11-2 an asset in a field of top-weights.
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4Predicted 4th
Nyman
7/1Fourth in the model, going fit confirmed positive, and a last-run SP of 100/30F suggests he can perform when the conditions align — 7/1 is fair each-way value.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Nabati
11/8SR 115, a 35% hot yard, William Buick booked, and the deterministic model's clear top score of 6.75. The form string 121 at this age is a standout credential in this field.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Forbidden Fire
9/2SR 89, Oisin Murphy at 22% career strike rate, and a Balding yard running at 19%. A winner on debut who could take second behind the class act.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Rock Montreal
7/4SR 87, a debut win at 2/5 suggests genuine ability, but the drift to 7/4 raises questions and the step to Listed grade off one run is a big ask.
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4Predicted 4th
Varzi
12/1Steaming in at 12/1 with an SR of 84 and a Karl Burke yard at 26% — the market is finding him, but SR gap to the favourite is too wide to bridge.
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Winner called 1/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Inspired
3/1Model-leader at 6.13, Burke's yard at 31%, two wins in last three starts, and a class drop today. The 15lb weight rise is the only drag and it's outweighed by the evidence.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Alpha Capture
6/1Scored 5.75 with going-fit positive and Roger Fell at 21% — consistent form peaking at second with more weight relief, but closest in profile to Inspired.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Proud Nation
9/1Distance and going both flagged positive, two-class drop is significant, Fahey yard at 15% — the market drift to 9/1 is a concern but the class relief is real.
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4Predicted 4th
Son
10/1Tim Easterby at 17% over 14 days, recent form shows a 3 last time out, and a 3lb weight reduction today gives it a live each-way case in a wide-open bottom half.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Mr Noble
3/1Distance fit, going fit, hottest trainer in the field at 31%, and a form string showing a win followed by a runner-up finish — everything points forward at a fair 3/1.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Power Fizz
10/1Going fit (GF:+), Haggas yard operating at 19%, and Cieren Fallon at 19% career strike rate — the class drop and recent form make this the most credible danger to Mr Noble.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Northern Express
9/2The model's top pick has a legitimate speed case and the market has held at 9/2; the distance flag and trainer cold spell stop it going higher than third for me.
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4Predicted 4th
Woohoo
9/1Six consecutive placed efforts (222222) with distance and going both ticking positive — a relentless placer who sets up as the each-way safety net at 9/1.
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