LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Toca Madera
3/1Model top-scorer at 6.92, last-run winner, steamering into 3/1, and Tudhope's 18% strike rate holds up. The form string ends in a win at this class level.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Hallo Spaceboy
7/1Also steamering, hold-up style fits the hot-pace scenario perfectly, and distance-plus-going double positive for a three-year-old getting weight from the field.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Go Vince Go
11/211/2 with Tim Easterby firing at 14% for the yard; the distance is neutral but the class rise is only one level for a three-year-old whose recent form shows a placed run.
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4Predicted 4th
Baldomero
8/1Front-runner facing a pace duel with Parisiac; if Parisiac fades first, Baldomero's class (won at 4/1 last time) could see him cling on for a place in the frame.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Instant Force
11/8Four pounds lighter, form of 221 trending upward, the race's most convincing market move. Distance fit confirmed, and the weight drop is the clearest edge in the field.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Black Velvet Boy
7/2Form string 731122 is the sharpest in the race and the trip suits, but a four-pound weight rise is a real ask against a horse dropping the same amount.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Harley
7/1Seven-pound drop in weight, distance and going both suited, and Edward Bethell's yard at 12% is workmanlike — Harley at 7/1 is the each-way price with a tell.
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4Predicted 4th
Furturra
11/2A genuine market mover at 11/2 but form 240535 is too patchy to trust at a class drop into this nursery; place claims only.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Sharadd
3/10Unbeaten on debut, top model score of 6.41, hottest trainer in the field at 18% strike rate, and a market that has refused to drift all morning. The case is overwhelming.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Our Son Oscar
10/3A solid debut third-to-second run earns him second place in the model at 4.92; the drift to 10/3 is a concern but he is clearly the second-best horse here on form.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Mugheer
20/1Two starts as favourite, beaten both times stepping up in class; the form string of 14 at least shows consistency, and he edges Mehmas Star on the model at 4.71.
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4Predicted 4th
Mehmas Star
14/1A distant second followed by a twentieth gives little encouragement; the lightest weight in the field is a minor plus but the model scores him last among the realistic runners.
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Winner placed 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Gaspacho
6/1Haggas yard at 18% strike rate, a 17lb weight drop into this field, and a form profile built entirely on winning at short prices — this horse drops in, not down.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Baltic Fleet
18/1The model's top pick and the only steamer in the race; going fit is confirmed and a 9lb weight rise suggests the handicapper has pinned the rating correctly after a pulled-up blip.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Glory Road
11/2Three-run winning sequence and Beckett's yard firing at 22% in the past fortnight; the drift is the only question mark on a horse with genuine class claims.
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4Predicted 4th
Bintknight
8/1Form string 512141 is the field's most consistent recent profile and going fits, but the two-class rise is the ceiling — place claims only at this level.
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Missed the frame 0/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Waasil
9/2Model leader on 6.78, steaming from morning, two wins from last three at a trip that suits. K. R. Burke sends him here in form and the 2lb rise won't stop him.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Regency Royal
7/2Steaming hard at 7/2, model third on 6.32, Andrew Balding's yard with six winners from 55 runners in 14 days and a form line (201) that shows a horse building into form.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Everatease
15/2Only runner flagged both D:+ and GF:+ in this field; the 48-day freshener and steamer move at 15/2 from Eve Johnson Houghton's yard signal a horse saved for this moment.
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4Predicted 4th
Capitano Josepi
7/1Debut winner steaming in this market, 8lb lighter than last run, Jack Mitchell (16% career strike) booked — the unknown quantity here, but the signals are too loud to ignore.
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Missed the frame 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Beagle Bay
7/4Form string of 2-1411, distance and going both green, Beckett yard at 22% and steamering market — every signal points here. The 118-day break is the only question mark the market …
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Spoken Truth
7/1Three placed efforts from last six, going fit confirmed, Daniel Tudhope booked — the form shows consistent honesty at this class level and the 7/1 reflects a horse the market hasn…
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Mr Swivell
18/1Steamed into 18/1 despite modest form, distance fit ticked, Kevin Philippart de Foy yard at 23% — the market move on an 18-runner each-way play is too loud to ignore entirely.
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4Predicted 4th
Inspired
10/1Form string 212110 is exceptional recent consistency, distance fit confirmed, and a class drop adds pressure — the +15lb weight rise is the only structural barrier to a win.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Ancient State
9/2Market steamer, top deterministic score (6.04), D:+ in a field of question marks, and consistent front-half form across his last four runs at this level.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Maelstrom
13/2Hot yard at 20%, two recent wins in the form string, and both distance and going ticks confirmed — the speed deficit is the one reservation at five furlongs.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Gold Star Hero
11/2Last SP of 8/1 after opening 25/1 suggests improving profile; the model credits speed as a positive driver and his 150253 string has enough substance for a place claim.
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4Predicted 4th
Glamorous Breeze
12/1Eight-year-old who ticks both distance and going (D:+, GF:+) and has placed in four of his last six — at 12/1 he is a legitimate each-way fringe runner.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Thunder Call
7/2Three wins in last five, positive distance and going fit, Haggas yard at 19% — the form-line dominance over this class-equivalent field is unambiguous. Class-carrier at 9-7 but th…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Mezcala
15/2A confirmed steamer with positive distance and going fit, dropping 3lb from last run. Jack Channon's yard is cold but the market move is hard to ignore at 15/2.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Machadadorp
12/1Six-run form string ending 1-1-6-1 in last four, positive distance and going fit, drops 2lb. Front-runner who could easily steal it if the pace splits badly.
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4Predicted 4th
Pellitory
18/1Form reads 020131 with a return to a going-neutral surface; the model rates form and speed highly — 18/1 looks generous for a horse freshest in the field at 14 days.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Division
7/4D:+ GF:+ with Haggas at 19% and Tudhope at 18% — the placed form string of -32352 reads as a horse begging for everything to fall right, and today it does.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Prince of India
7/2Last-run winner at 6/4F and the form figure is impossible to dismiss — the cold Botti yard is the only serious caveat at 7/2.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Sayidah Dariyan
11/1The market knows something — a 5lb weight drop and a steaming price keeps her honest, but the going and distance are only neutral fits rather than positives.
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4Predicted 4th
Elmonjed
10/1Speed and going ratings are among the field's strongest drivers, but the drift from 8/1 to 10/1 with a 3lb penalty is a flag this Haggas second-string may be a lesser option than …
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Winner placed 4/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Tenability
6/4Model-top at 6.92, steaming market move, 5lb weight drop, distance and going fit both positive — every signal points the same direction.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Al Aasy
3/1Form figures of 2131 are hard to dismiss, but a 6lb rise on a nine-year-old is a genuine ask; the danger is real, the ceiling is capped.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
By The Book
4/1Appleby at 41% strike rate keeps By The Book honest; the form reads like a horse improving in the right company and 3lb lighter than last time helps.
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4Predicted 4th
Royal Playwright
16/1120 days off, going rated negative, and a 13% jockey strike rate — too many question marks against a cleaner case from the others.
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