LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
America Queen
10/3Sole front-runner on a track where pace-setters thrive, steaming market move today, and last-run SP of 11/10F confirms she arrives in form. Tudhope will exploit the empty pace rai…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Double Rush
9/44lb weight drop helps Balding's 4yo and the yard is firing at 20%; the danger is real but drifting SPs (4/6F to 8/1) suggest market confidence has cooled progressively.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Extremely Zain
6/1Haggas at 19% yard form, Cieren Fallon (19% career strike rate) booked, and proven good-going form — freshest of the 3yos at just 22 days between runs and each-way claims are genu…
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4Predicted 4th
Behike
7/2George Scott's 3yo showed a 3/1F run recently and form includes back-to-back wins, but a class rise and modest trainer 14-day strike rate of 14% cap expectations here.
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Awaiting result 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Besieged
2/1Three runs, three placed finishes culminating in a 4/9F win; trainer Charlton at 29% over 14 days; only 1lb penalty. The market at 2/1 has it right.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Stoneacre Donny
12/1Shortened from 100/30 to 15/8F in recent starts, distance and going both positive, and Tim Easterby's yard is firing at 17% — a genuine pace-setter with finishing ability.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Double Parked
10/1A market steamer in a field of drifters, going fit, and dropping in class — Tim Easterby again. The 11lb weight hike is the only argument against.
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4Predicted 4th
Castle Stuart
5/1Third-in-model, the Fahey yard at 15%, and a recent run of 5 from six outings shows consistency — but the distance is a negative and Barry McHugh's 7% strike rate concerns.
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Winner placed 4/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Percy Shelley
9/1Consistent placed form at this class, workable distance and going fit, and a market price of 9/1 that respects without overhyping. The speed and form drivers both positive in the …
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Moon Chime
7/2A 34lb weight drop is the loudest signal in this field; positive class-change and form drivers back it up. Trainer yard cold but the weight concession overrides.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Pinatique
9/1Sir Mark Prescott's yard at 33% in the last 14 days is a hard stat to ignore; Pinatique gets significant trainer backing into a staying trip at a price.
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4Predicted 4th
High Fibre
5/2Positive speed and form drivers, Cieren Fallon booked at 19% career strike rate, but a drifting market from 6/5F last time to 5/2 today suggests something has shifted.
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Winner placed 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Explosive Finnish
5/1Distance fit, going fit, and an improving form string culminating in a win give three convergent signals; the two-runner pace battle sets this race up perfectly for a late-arrivin…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Harb
9/1Back-to-back wins, a 45% yard strike rate, and a weight drop of 8lb make Harb the most dangerous closer in the field despite the class rise of two.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Managing Director
6/1Distance fits, PJ McDonald booking at 15% career strike rate, and a model score of 5.52 driven by speed and form — each-way claims are genuine at 6/1.
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4Predicted 4th
Parisiac
12/1The steamer deserves inclusion but the going question mark and last-run 8th cap confidence — fourth is where the evidence lands when the form horses run their race.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Mezzo Forte
7/2Strongest market move in the field — 11/1 debut SP into 7/2 — backed by a Haggas yard at 19% and Cieren Fallon at 19% career strike rate. The signals align.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Izuba
5/4Second on debut and market favourite despite today's drift; Andrew Balding at 20% keeps Izuba honest, but the 5lb penalty and drifting price cool conviction.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Scenic Route
7/2Second on debut at 10/1 represents the best raw debut form in the field at a price; the two-class jump is the risk, but Fahey's yard at 15% provides some cover.
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4Predicted 4th
Bayraktar
11/2Unraced but launched from a Burke yard running at 31% — the drift is a concern, but the trainer form is impossible to ignore as a place qualifier.
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Winner called 4/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Naval Tribute
15/8Top of the deterministic model on form and market move, positive distance fit, and a form string showing two wins from last four completed runs — 11lb rise absorbed by the weight-…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
An Bradan Feasa
7/2Four consecutive places including a win on a positive distance profile; Murphy at 21% gives the ride a professional edge that keeps this firmly in the frame.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Campeona
4/1Prescott yard at 32% in 14 days and a class drop are genuine positives; the market drift tempers enthusiasm but she has the form to pick up a place.
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4Predicted 4th
Flash Kozo
5/2Last run ended in a place at 7/2 and the form has some upside, but Eustace yard at 0% over 14 days and a drifting price makes this an outsider at best.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Primo Lara
7/4Three consecutive market shortenings, consecutive wins embedded in a 625114 string, positive distance fit, class drop, and Loughnane booked at 19%. The evidence stacks.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Topteam
9/2Murphy at 21% on a class-drop runner that was once 6/4F is hard to dismiss; 98 days off costs it slot 1 but not the frame.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Whitcombe Rockstar
13/2The model's top pick has the biggest market move and a class drop, but 72 days off and two 25/1 runs before the latest steamer tempers conviction.
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4Predicted 4th
Tiernan
11/2Four placed runs in recent SPs including two favourites; Rossa Ryan at 17% keeps it in the frame despite the distance being an approximate fit.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Paradise Walk
5/1Class drop into Class 4, distance fit confirmed, Beckett yard at 20% strike rate, Rossa Ryan booked — every signal that matters points here.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Rumble Ruby
7/1Form string 031413 shows consistent presence in the finish; 4lb weight relief and distance fit make this a credible place candidate at 7/1.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Powdering
14/1Hold-up runner who benefits directly from a contested early pace set by Tarot and Eskimo Pie; form figure of '1' in the string and trainer on 20%.
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4Predicted 4th
Veil Of Clouds
15/8Raw ability is real — three successive favourite prices say so — but a 0-from-22 cold yard and a drifting market make a win hard to trust.
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Winner called 1/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Moonrise
11/4Top of the deterministic model on form and speed, Oisin Murphy booked, Balding yard at 15% — three runs of progressive winning form sets this up as her graduation race.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Adaay of Scarlett
7/2Third in the model, consistent presence in recent form (122225), distance fit confirmed, and likely to press the pace and stay honest over 6f.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Bated Benevolence
40/1Botti at 29% strike rate is impossible to ignore; form shows a 5/4 favourite win last time and this 40/1 price is wildly generous on trainer form alone.
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4Predicted 4th
Tawakal
9/4Unbeaten talent is real but Crisford at 0-from-22 over 14 days and a three-level class jump make 9/4 an overbet price on today's evidence.
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Winner placed 4/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Constitution Hill
10/3Two wins from two flat starts, the model's highest form driver at +1.1, and Henderson's yard in 50% form. The class-step penalty in the model underweights what a flawless record a…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Gethin
1/1Market's favourite for good reason — strong speed metric and consistent placing — but two beaten-favourite efforts in recent form stop me installing him at the top.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Warrant Holder
6/1Gosden yard running at 30% in 14 days and steaming in the market from 11/4F to 6/1; a horse stepping up in class who has the form line to place at this level.
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4Predicted 4th
Pride Of Arras
9/2Distance fit is the one clean positive marker and Ralph Beckett's yard at 20% keeps it honest, but an inconsistent form line — 014-82 — makes a place the ceiling here.
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