LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record

Race by Race

LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.

223 Races graded
58 · 26.6% Winners called (Slot 1)
141 · 64.7% Any of 4 came 1st
53.3% Pick-level frame rate
13 Perfect 1-2-3-4 in frame
  1. Sat 5 Sep 2026 · 14:20

    Kempton (AW) · William Hill London Mile Series Final Handicap Stakes (Series Final - Qualified Horses Only)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Nikovo

      7/1

      Form arc 854331 is a horse peaking; 3lb weight relief offsets the class rise. Murphy at 21% and a 20%-striking yard make every signal point the same direction.

      Missed — Finished 5th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Victory Ace

      11/2

      Three wins on the bounce — form reads 265111 — and a strong market move to 11/2 suggests the panel trusts the hat-trick. Class rise the one risk.

      Nailed it · Finished 2nd
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Warrior Mode

      5/1

      Sir Mark Prescott striking at 32% over 14 days is the standout yard stat in the field; 5/1 with a form line ending 31 and a big weight drop of 18lb.

      Missed — Finished 8th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Two Tempting

      10/1

      The steamer signal is real and the model leads with it, but a 5% trainer strike rate and going flag minus at Kempton cap confidence at a place at best.

      Missed — Finished 10th
  2. Sat 5 Sep 2026 · 13:45

    Kempton (AW) · William Hill Epic Boost Fillies' Nursery Handicap Stakes

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner placed 2/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Forest Berry

      10/3

      Back-to-back wins, a 4lb weight drop, and Prescott's yard running at 32% — three converging signals that outweigh the market drift and Hogan's moderate book-wide strike rate.

      Placed — Finished 4th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Woodhay Wayfarer

      5/2

      A price journey from 50/1 to 4/1 across three runs is not noise; it's a progressive filly improving fast, suited by the mile trip and carrying the right jockey in Loughnane.

      Placed — Finished 3rd
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Greek Symphony

      5/1

      Consistent 1-3 finishes, an Oliver Cole yard running at 22%, and a genuine mile distance fit make Greek Symphony a reliable each-way proposition at 5/1 in a field of eight.

      Missed — Finished 5th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Attack Attack

      16/1

      The steamer of the race — 16/1 from longer — and a class drop of one provides the value outsider angle, though raw form figures of 0035 demand a healthy scepticism.

      Missed — Finished 7th
  3. Sat 29 Aug 2026 · 16:55

    Goodwood · Virgin Bet Supports Safe Gambling Handicap Stakes

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Naana's Sparkle

      5/1

      Top of the model ranking at 6.16, backed by positive distance and going fit, and the clearest market move of the day. Form string 14120 shows a horse in upward trajectory at this …

      Nailed it · Finished 1st
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Dream Composer

      4/1

      Second in the model at 5.69 with positive going fit and strong recent form — 147154 is consistent. The hold-up concern is real but this horse is in form and carries the least weig…

      Placed — Finished 3rd
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Lexington Blitz

      11/2

      Speed is the primary positive driver at 0.5 in the model, and the Robert Cowell yard is ticking at 17% over 14 days. The 7lb weight rise is a concern but there's raw ability here.

      Missed — Finished 6th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      All Ways Glamorous

      7/1

      Form reading 39114 shows real ability and both distance and going fit are positive. Trainer at 0% over 14 days is a drag, but the course and conditions alignment makes this a plac…

      Nailed it · Finished 4th
  4. Sat 29 Aug 2026 · 16:20

    Goodwood · Virgin Bet Daily Price Boosts Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner placed 1/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Zachary Hickes

      13/8

      Top of the deterministic model, steaming market move, Roger Varian firing at 27%, and a winning last run. Every signal is pointing the same direction — this is not a coincidence.

      Placed — Finished 2nd
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Arcturus Flame

      7/2

      Cieren Fallon at 19% career strike rate, consistent recent form (5325V2), and the pace shape suits a hold-up or tracking runner. The Void run is notable but the horse keeps findin…

      Missed — Finished 5th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Educator

      17/2

      Back-to-back wins and both distance and going ticks make Educator hard to ignore for place money, even with a cold yard and a drifting price.

      Awaiting result
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Caprelo

      12/1

      Steaming market move this morning warrants attention; Rob Hornby takes a 1lb drop on a horse whose SP history (5/1, 13/2, 11/2) suggests it has been well-backed before at this lev…

      Missed — Finished 7th
  5. Sat 29 Aug 2026 · 15:45

    Goodwood · Darley Ebf Maiden Fillies' Stakes (gbb Race)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Tropical Sands

      11/4

      Three-run improving arc, backed from 13/8 to 11/4 today; the deterministic model's top pick at 6.20 with a full point market-move bonus. The evidence points one way.

      Missed — Finished 5th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Evening Call

      10/3

      Debut third for Haggas just fifteen days ago, Fallon booked at 19% strike rate; on a second run with a leading yard, she is the most credible danger to the favourite.

      Missed — Finished 8th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Marquetry

      11/2

      Unraced, but Andrew Balding's yard is striking at 18% in 14 days and the model scores her third despite a blank form column — debut runners from hot yards deserve respect at 11/2.

      Missed — Finished 7th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Queen Of Scotland

      4/1

      George Boughey's yard at 16% keeps Queen Of Scotland interesting at 4/1 despite no public form — but at shorter odds than Marquetry with the same blank slate, the value is questio…

      Placed — Finished 2nd
  6. Sat 29 Aug 2026 · 15:10

    Goodwood · Virgin Bet Celebration Mile Stakes (Group 2)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Zavateri

      13/8

      Top of the scored ranking at 6.73, the only horse with D:+ GF:+ alignment, steaming in the market — three independent signals converging on one horse at a mile on good-to-firm gro…

      Nailed it · Finished 1st
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Boiling Point

      9/2

      Second in the model at 5.69, 5lb weight relief, Burke's yard red-hot at 21% — honest form in Group company and genuine conditions to run his race.

      Missed — Finished 6th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Seagulls Eleven

      4/1

      The drift is a worry but a form line of −21130 at this level shows enough quality to fill a place slot, especially if the pace plays to a prominent racer.

      Missed — Finished 7th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Ebt's Guard

      12/1

      Steaming into the field from 8/1 at its last SP, the market move mirrors Zavateri's pattern — the going and distance negatives limit the ceiling but the place market has been wron…

      Nailed it · Finished 4th
  7. Sat 29 Aug 2026 · 14:35

    Goodwood · Virgin Bet A Good Bet Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner placed 3/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Green Sky

      9/1

      Distance fit, going fit, 13lb weight relief, three wins in last four, hot yard at 19%, and a market steam move all align — this is the clearest multi-signal case in the field.

      Placed — Finished 3rd
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      High Degree

      13/8

      Going suits and form is consistent, but two defeats at short prices in similar contests and another class rise make him shorter than the evidence warrants.

      Nailed it · Finished 2nd
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Tony Montana

      9/2

      The model's top pick on market move and speed; Philippart De Foy's yard at 20% is the credible hook, and a 9/2 steam deserves respect for each-way purposes.

      Missed — Finished 9th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Too Soon

      7/2

      A 23lb weight rise is brutal, going is a negative (GF:-), but the pace scenario could suit a hold-up style if the race develops into a sprint from the home turn.

      Placed — Finished 1st
  8. Sat 29 Aug 2026 · 14:00

    Goodwood · Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Handicap Stakes

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Awaiting result 1/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Addison Grey

      12/1

      Model's top-ranked runner at 6.57, with distance, going, and class all aligned. Clive Cox at 22% and a strong market move make this the most corroborated selection in the field.

      Awaiting result
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Forty Years On

      2/1

      Form string 1112-1 is elite and the market has backed it hard, but a cold yard at 4%, 79 days off, and a going question mark prevent slot 1.

      Placed — Finished 1st
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Ghost Mode

      9/2

      Andrew Balding's yard at 18% and a form line that closed with a win at 9/2 makes Ghost Mode the live each-way runner, with distance a positive fit.

      Missed — Finished 5th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Aalto

      10/1

      Steaming in the market and Cieren Fallon at 19% career strike rate give Aalto a tell, though distance and going are marked uncertain and trainer form is modest at 11%.

      Awaiting result
  9. Winner placed 2/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Roku Nana

      15/2

      Strongest market move in the field combined with the hottest trainer yard at 27% — in a race this light on form, those two signals dwarf anything else on the card.

      Placed — Finished 3rd
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Lily Pink

      2/1

      A second on debut at a higher starting price than today's odds suggests a horse the market has caught up with; Charlie Johnston's yard at 14% adds minor support.

      Missed — Finished 5th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Thespian Queen

      7/1

      Ran second on debut, steps up in class from an 8-13 weight, and offers 7/1 each-way value in a field where the ceiling of most rivals is unknown.

      Missed — Finished 6th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Rhythm Of My Heart

      7/2

      Ran second last time at 11/4 favourite and is steaming at 7/2, but the Menuisier yard is 0-from-7 in the last fortnight — that cold spell is a hard counter-signal at this price.

      Placed — Finished 2nd
  10. Sat 22 Aug 2026 · 17:20

    York · Sky Bet Dav Reid Finale Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner called 1/4 in frame · Winner
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Raammee

      11/4

      Model-topper at 7.12, steaming market, Varian yard at 35% — three independent signals pointing the same direction. The 10lb rise is absorbed by class superiority.

      Nailed it · Finished 1st
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Erzindjan

      15/2

      Model second at 6.14 with the highest-rated jockey in the race at 27%; a recent win on the form string and Ryan Moore will position him to pounce in the final furlong.

      Missed — Finished 12th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Al Aali

      10/1

      Form reads 875511 — improving fast, Buick up, and a going flag of GF:+. Model fourth at 5.52 and the 10/1 looks generous for a horse this in-form.

      Missed — Finished 8th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Diego El Queso

      9/2

      D:+ and GF:+ are the best dual fit flags in the field; form 3-2126 shows consistent placing. Lyons runners travel well and 9/2 reflects genuine competitiveness.

      Missed — Finished 18th