LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record

Race by Race

LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.

78 Races graded
17 · 22.1% Winners called (Slot 1)
47 · 61.0% Any of 4 came 1st
54.4% Pick-level frame rate
6 Perfect 1-2-3-4 in frame
  1. Fri 19 Jun 2026 · 18:10

    Ascot · Palace Of Holyroodhouse (Handicap)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner placed 1/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Calico Blue

      SP

      SR-86 at 8-12 gives her a meaningful weight advantage over the field's rated horses; Varian's 311-2 form line shows a horse in consistent rhythm, not one in decline.

      Placed — Finished 4th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Tricky Tel

      SP

      Hugo Palmer's runner carries only 8-9 off a SR-84 with back-to-back wins in the 74-311 sequence; light weight in a strong-pace sprint is a live each-way argument.

      Missed — Finished 11th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Starmade

      SP

      Ed Dunlop's 321-31 form line is the most consistent narrative in the bottom half of the weights at 8-7; Harry Davies will get a clean run from a small draw.

      Missed — Finished 5th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Westport

      SP

      The 111 form is real and Boughey places his horses well, but 9-0 in a 28-runner cavalry charge on good-to-firm represents a sharp class and weight test on debut in handicap compan…

      Missed — Finished 19th
  2. Fri 19 Jun 2026 · 17:35

    Ascot · King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner placed 4/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Water To Wine

      evn

      Unbeaten, Buick aboard, Gosden yard in top form — the SR of 97 is a floor not a ceiling for a horse with two runs under its belt. Evens is fair price on merit.

      Placed — Finished 3rd
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Causeway

      2/1

      SR 123 is the class benchmark of the field and Moore's booking is a major asset; three straight wins demand respect even in defeat.

      Placed — Finished 1st
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Golden Story

      10/1

      Form of 1-31 shows a winner who bounced back; K R Burke's three-year-olds travel well at Ascot and 10/1 reflects modest expectations this yard could exceed.

      Placed — Finished 4th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Ancient Egypt

      10/1

      A slide from a 1 to an 8 in the form reads as a horse that has regressed; SR 105 is not Group 2 quality and the 10/1 reflects market scepticism correctly.

      Placed — Finished 2nd
  3. Fri 19 Jun 2026 · 17:00

    Ascot · Sandringham Stakes (Handicap) (Fillies)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Glyfada

      SP

      SR 82 matches the field ceiling; she carries 9-4 topweight's five-pound advantage over Seet, has won her last two, and the O'Brien–Murphy Ascot axis is not to be faded.

      Missed — Finished 5th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Seet

      SP

      Three consecutive runs reading 511, Ryan Moore booked — this filly is in form and dangerous, but 9-4 in a 30-runner field at Ascot is a bigger ask than it looks on paper.

      Missed — Finished 7th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      She Commands

      SP

      Form 51-1 with the most recent run a win; Ralph Beckett's SR-78 filly carries just 8-8, the lightest weight among the genuinely progressive entries in the field.

      Missed — Finished 20th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Rosa Inglesa

      SP

      Form 216-31 shows a recent win and consistent placed form; Charlie Fellowes sending this one to Ascot off 8-7 looks like a yard that fancies its chances.

      Placed — Finished 3rd
  4. Fri 19 Jun 2026 · 16:20

    Ascot · Coronation Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner placed 3/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      True Love

      10/3

      SR 128, back-to-back wins in current form, and 10/3 against an 8/13 jolly for a single SR point is the value. Lordan's retained partnership seals the case.

      Placed — Finished 3rd
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Precise

      8/13

      SR 129 and Ryan Moore are not to be dismissed, but the '7' in 111-71 and a price demanding perfection makes her a worthy second rather than a banker.

      Placed — Finished 1st
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Balantina

      12/1

      SR 114 is workmanlike for Group 1 but Oisin Murphy and the 13251 form suggest she can pick up placed money in a race run at a genuine pace.

      Missed — Finished 5th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Touleen

      17/2

      SR 110 and an honest front half to her 115-26 form keeps Touleen in the mix for fourth, despite the market drift signalling lack of confidence in a repeat.

      Placed — Finished 2nd
  5. Fri 19 Jun 2026 · 15:40

    Ascot · Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) (GBBPlus Race)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner placed 1/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Warrant Holder

      SP

      SR 94 leads the field, won last time on a 1231-1 sequence, Buick booked by Gosden — every credible signal in this race points the same direction.

      Placed — Finished 2nd
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Dain Ma Nut In

      SP

      SR 91 and a recent win in the 180-17 sequence give Colin Keane a live chance at 9-6; the lighter weight helps against the topweights.

      Awaiting result
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Plage De Havre

      SP

      SR 91 at 9-9 with Oisin Murphy aboard; the P31-63 sequence shows resilience and Murphy's patient style suits the Ascot straight perfectly.

      Awaiting result
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Hopewell Rock

      SP

      SR 90 for George Boughey with James Doyle; the 3229-3 form shows consistent placing without winning, a type that often runs into a place at this level.

      Missed — Finished 6th
  6. Fri 19 Jun 2026 · 15:05

    Ascot · Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) (No Geldings)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Venetian Sun

      13/8

      SR-124 leads the field by 8 points over the next-best filly; 113-01 form on Good to Firm, the true pace she needs, and 13/8 market weight all align.

      Nailed it · Finished 1st
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Havana Anna

      14/1

      SR-116 is the field's second-highest rating; 1220-1 form including a recent win makes her the most credible chaser at 14/1.

      Placed — Finished 4th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Albert Einstein

      11/2

      SR-112 with Ryan Moore booked and a 11-632 form line that includes two early wins; Moore's Ascot record adds weight to a place claim at 11/2.

      Missed — Finished 14th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Wise Approach

      10/1

      SR-112 for Appleby and Buick with a 131-54 form line; the class is there even if recent figures have dipped, and Appleby fires at Ascot.

      Missed — Finished 22nd
  7. Fri 19 Jun 2026 · 14:30

    Ascot · Albany Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Missed the frame 3/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Silent Beauty

      6/1

      SR 155, clean winning form, David Egan booked, and a stable sending multiple runners in confidence. Five SR points behind Sun Goddess but 4/1 better in the market.

      Missed — Finished 23rd
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Sun Goddess

      6/5

      SR 160 leads the field and Ryan Moore does not get on favourites at Royal Ascot by accident — she'll be placed, but 6/5 is a price that demands perfection.

      Nailed it · Finished 2nd
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Libertango

      17/2

      SR 152, unbeaten in one start, George Boughey's yard in form and Billy Loughnane's association with this trainer has produced winners at this level before.

      Placed — Finished 1st
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Light Of Dawn

      7/1

      SR 154 is the third-highest in the field, James Doyle aboard, K R Burke's fillies regularly run their race at Ascot — holds her place in the frame comfortably.

      Placed — Finished 3rd
  8. Thu 18 Jun 2026 · 18:10

    Ascot · Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Cosi Bello

      7/1

      Form of 1124-1 is the race's strongest recent sequence; 9-4 weight is workable, and 7/1 reflects genuine market respect in a 32-runner field.

      Missed — Finished 10th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Royal Velvet

      12/1

      SR 92, form 815-11, William Buick in the saddle — the weight of 9-9 is the only real drag on a horse that arrives in form.

      Missed — Finished 25th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      River King

      11/1

      Form 231-21 under 9-2 for a yard that knows handicaps; Pat Dobbs has placed this horse consistently and the weight is fair.

      Missed — Finished 5th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Mezcala

      14/1

      Form 127-13 for Jack Channon shows a horse capable of hitting the frame; 9-1 weight and Tom Marquand in the plate makes 14/1 a reasonable each-way marker.

      Placed — Finished 1st
  9. Thu 18 Jun 2026 · 17:35

    Ascot · Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Morshdi

      7/1

      SR-leader in the field at 104, a six-point edge over the next-best. Haggas form travels, Marquand suits, and a genuine pace set up by Generic plays directly to his late kick.

      Missed — Finished 9th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Endorsement

      9/4

      SR 99 and Ryan Moore will not let him drift far from the frame; the inconsistency in his form stops him getting past Morshdi but the talent is there for a placed effort.

      Nailed it · Finished 2nd
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Maho Bay

      8/1

      Buick on a horse that already has a win on the board (1-14 form), and the pace shape suits his pressing style; SR 96 is workable at this price.

      Missed — Finished 5th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Oxagon

      7/1

      Oisin Murphy on a Gosden-trained runner at 7/1 demands respect despite SR 97 and patchy form; the step up in trip could unlock something but the evidence is thin.

      Missed — Finished 10th
  10. Thu 18 Jun 2026 · 16:50

    Ascot · Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Colts & Geldings)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Missed the frame 0/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Laureate Crown

      14/1

      SR 87, back-to-back wins, 3lb lighter than top-rated Organise, Jamie Spencer waiting tactics built for exactly this race shape at 14/1.

      Missed — Finished 12th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Organise

      15/2

      Field-topping SR 89, James Doyle booked, and 1-12 recent form is solid — but 9-7 on the back of a near-miss last time is a genuine ask in a 32-runner cavalry charge.

      Missed — Finished 15th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Langstone

      12/1

      SR 86, form reads 5-112 — progressive, light weight at 8-13, and Rob Hornby is a competent big-field Ascot pilot for Clive Cox, a trainer who targets these races.

      Missed — Finished 16th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      We're Goosers

      8/1

      SR 87 with Oisin Murphy engaged at 8/1 is a serious pairing, but 221-61 form reads as a horse finding improvement harder to come by at this class level.

      Missed — Finished 30th