LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Sale Shark
6/1Oisin Murphy at 21% takes the ride at 6/1 — the highest-strike-rate jockey pairing in the field. A genuine pace from the front-runners sets up a Murphy-delivered finish perfectly.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Dubai Champion
5/1Ryan Moore at 27% on a horse showing 4312 progressive form; prominent position suits the pace shape and he has the class trajectory to run out the main danger.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Adonius
2/1The market has backed him hard and the form is consistent, but Menzies at 0-from-11 in 14 days is too big a red flag to ignore — place money only.
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4Predicted 4th
Hickory Lad
11/1Second in the deterministic model on speed and form signals; the 11/1 reflects a yard running at 12% in recent days and a form line with an 8 at the end that needs explaining away.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Dance In The Storm
9/4Backed into 9/4, Murphy booked, Balding at 17% — won last time out at positive distance fit. Every meaningful signal points here.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Air Force One
11/2Form reads 105331 — three consecutive placed efforts, consistent at this class, Geoff Oldroyd's yard running at 25% from just four runners.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Evening Saigon
12/1Model scores form and speed positively; James Doyle at 18% strike rate adds jockey confidence, and the 0-1271 string shows a winner capable of running into the places.
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4Predicted 4th
Far Above Dream
11/1James Owen's yard firing at 17%, form includes a recent win, and the +0.3 going signal from the model suggests conditions will suit at a fair price.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Love Me Tender
9/2Model's top score of 7.90 underpinned by Mullins yard at 31%, Buick at 20%, and a form string of 114. The market move confirms what the data already shows.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Hopewell Rock
8/1A confirmed steamer today, Boughey's yard is firing at 25%, and a last-run win off near-identical weight makes this the clearest danger to the favourite.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Emit
11/2Ryan Moore at 27% career strike rate aboard a confirmed market mover — model scores Emit third at 6.32 and the Moore booking alone justifies each-way interest at 11/2.
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4Predicted 4th
Square Necker
14/1Form reading 31-211 is the most consistent sequence of any runner below 9-0 in the weights, and Kevin Philippart De Foy's four-year-old arrives on a light 8-13.
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Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Notable Speech
3/1Model top-pick at 7.00, steaming into 3/1 with William Buick up and Appleby firing at 35% — three independent signals pointing at the same horse on the same day.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Lake Forest
11/2Ranked second by the model at 6.00, Haggas at 21% and Fallon at 20%, with a win last time and a 2lb weight drop keeping him very much in the mix behind the market's banker.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Satono Reve
11/1As lone confirmed front-runner it controls tempo entirely; distance fit is positive (+) and a form line of 1223 shows it runs its race consistently without the need for cover.
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4Predicted 4th
Flora Of Bermuda
11/1Last two starts produced a 1011 form string at 3/1 and 5/2F, Oisin Murphy at 21% strike rate — a 4lb weight drop adds appeal at a double-figure price in an open field.
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Missed the frame 0/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Limestone
9/2Model-top at 7.93 with the field's strongest speed score, a steaming market, Ryan Moore booked, and three wins from his last four completed starts. The case is comprehensive.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Mythical Bay
7/1Progressive form string of -12311, Oisin Murphy at 21%, and Balding's 17% yard makes her the likeliest chaser — but she concedes 13lb to Limestone at today's weights.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Into The Light
15/2Appleby's 35% strike rate is the hottest yard figure on the sheet and Buick at 20% gives Into The Light a powerful team; the drift from favouritism is the only hesitation.
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4Predicted 4th
My Ballyquinn
33/1A 16lb weight drop and a notable market move to 33/1 are real signals even at O'Meara's modest 12% strike rate — this is the value outsider with a genuine tell.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Archivist
11/1Five-pound weight drop, live steamer, form string closing on a win at this class — the market is moving toward him for a reason and the pace setup suits a hold-up profile.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Damysus
3/1Model top-pick, Gosden yard in form at 25%, Doyle booked — but topweight on Good to Soft with a two-pound rise asks questions the 3/1 price doesn't fully compensate.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Persica
7/1Won at 1/1F last time making all — dictating from the front in a strong-run race is a real asset, and the model's +0.5 form driver reflects a horse in career-best form.
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4Predicted 4th
Geryon
7/2Three-year-old allowance, consistent form string closing 4-4-1-2, distance fits — if the pace collapses late, Gary Carroll's hold-up ride catches the principals.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Silver Lake
9/4Market steamer, back-to-back wins at 4/5F last time, Haggas firing at 21%, and 9lb lighter than main rival Lady Dora Mae — the pace duel up front sets this up for a hold-up finish…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Lady Dora Mae
4/1Ryan Moore, Boughey at 29%, consistent form with five placings in six — she'll be involved but gives away too much weight to Silver Lake at this level.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Dream Camp
9/110lb drop in weight from last run, Andrew Balding at 17%, and a win on the board at this trip — capable of sneaking third at 9/1 if the pace collapse benefits runners coming wide.
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4Predicted 4th
Pendella
9/1Won last time out at 11/10F, K.R. Burke's yard at 23% — step up in class is steep but the form is recent and the weight concession from the top makes the price worth noting.
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Missed the frame 0/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Oklahoma
6/4Beaten favourite twice-placed form, O'Brien yard at 23% strike rate, Ryan Moore at 27% — the three strongest converging signals in the race.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Lancaster Tower
2/1Debut third as 5/6 favourite screams unlucky at the trip or pace; Gosden yard at 23% and Buick booked confirm this one is expected to go close.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Launch Sequence
5/1Two consecutive thirds at the same class level with a 23% trainer yard; the +5lb weight rise is the one credible reason it doesn't win.
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4Predicted 4th
Speyside
12/1A debut third that came at 40/1 is a significant positive signal; Hugo Palmer's yard is quiet but Oisin Murphy at 21% gives this one a finishing kick.
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Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Plage De Havre
9/1Model-top at 6.48 with the sharpest market move in the field; confirmed distance fit, Balding yard at 17% strike rate, and McDonald booked with clear intent at 9/1.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Primo Lara
5/1Two wins on the bounce, the hottest trainer in the race at 24%, and a 17lb weight relief make Primo Lara the most dangerous horse to Plage De Havre at 5/1.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Explode
16/1Back-to-back wins, 10lb off his back, and William Buick aboard at 20% career strike rate — six days' turnaround is aggressive but Buick does not take weak rides at 16/1.
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4Predicted 4th
Master Vintner
12/1Three runs reading 2-2-1 at the business end of his card with Ralph Beckett's yard firing at 21%; 1lb weight relief and confirmed distance suitability make him the each-way each-w…
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Winner called 1/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Bacio
10/3Form string 121-11 produces the highest form driver in the field (+1.1); the class rise is minimal (↑1) and Ward's operation targets these moments precisely.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Mission Central
8/1Form 0-1117 with a recent Group-level placed run and Ryan Moore at 27% career strike rate makes this the hardest horse to dismiss behind Bacio.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Cover Up
14/1A Crisford yard operating at 31% strike rate and a 7/1 win last time out in the form string; Buick at 20% makes this the each-way value in the field.
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4Predicted 4th
Night Raider
10/1The Burke yard is running at 23% over 14 days and Doyle at 18% is a quality booking; form 0-1100 shows two consecutive wins before a blank last run.
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