Sly Man's Horses to Watch — Monday 12 October 2026
Nothing shorter than 5/1 makes my book. I'm looking beyond the obvious — but they still have to earn their place.
Five worth watching today. Read the rating, read the angle, then make up your own mind. I'm the wiry one in the silks reading form on a tablet while the favourites warm up — here's what's caught my eye.
Raffles Angel
Jack Jones is running red-hot — 38% in the last 30 days — and he's pointed Raffles Angel at a track where she's already won twice. SR 81 tops the card, and at 5/1 that's a price worth noting.
- Jack Jones — 38% strike rate last 30d (9/24)
- 2 prior wins at Yarmouth
- SR 81 — top of the card
Yorkshire tops the card with an SR of 95 and brings a prior win at Kempton to go with it — this track suits. Billy Loughnane has fired in 35 winners from 167 rides in the last 30 days, and that 21% strike rate means he's not just hot, he's a booking worth tracking.
- SR 95 — top of the card
- Billy Loughnane — 21% strike rate last 30d (35/167)
- 1 prior win at Kempton (AW)
Bryan Smart is firing at 24% over the last 30 days and has pointed Oisin Orr at a track Secret Guest has already won on. That's not a coincidence — that's a plan.
- Bryan Smart — 24% strike rate last 30d (4/17)
- 1 prior win at Newcastle (AW)
- Oisin Orr — 14% strike rate last 30d (10/71)
Contrary To Law is running at a Suitability Rating of 79 — one point off her career best — and that kind of near-peak readiness on race day is exactly the sort of quiet signal that gets missed at 11/2. Ben Coen has won 16 from 117 in the last 30 days and he doesn't take rides like this for the scenery.
- SR 79 — near career best (80)
- Ben Coen — 14% strike rate last 30d (16/117)
- SR 79 — top of the card
Invincible Crown has already won at Musselburgh, and that course form matters more than the 6/1 suggests. Ruth Carr is running hot at 15% over the last 30 days, and this looks exactly the kind of quiet play her yard delivers.
- 1 prior win at Musselburgh
- Ruth Carr — 15% strike rate last 30d (10/65)