The Fox's Wire · Sly Man
Horses to Watch — Honest Record
Every daily selection since the ledger opened. Won? Gold. 2nd? Silver. 3rd? Bronze. No hiding.
740
Total picks
152
Winners
384
Placed (top 3)
51.9%
Placed hit-rate
Pricing verdict scoreboard
Shadow classifier — under evaluation. Mirrored from Pick Winner's frozen v1 policy so BET / WATCH / PASS reads identically across both products. BET = market may be soft · WATCH = fair-priced · PASS = priced against us.
- BET 10.0% strike -35.00% ROI n = 10
- WATCH 21.1% strike +31.58% ROI n = 19
- PASS 8.3% strike -48.61% ROI n = 36
Cohort matrix
Same settled picks as the scoreboard above, sliced by tier (Confirmed = Pick Winner agrees; Radar = story-only backfill) and by pricing verdict (BET / WATCH / PASS). A/E is actual wins ÷ expected wins from market-implied probability — above 1.00 is beating the market on that cohort. Rows with fewer than 20 picks are dimmed: small sample, treat with care.
| Cohort | n | Win % | Place % | Avg odds | A/E | ROI % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 65 | 12.3% | 38.5% | 6.88 | 0.83 | -23.08% |
| Confirmed | 65 | 12.3% | 38.5% | 6.88 | 0.83 | -23.08% |
| Radar | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| BET | 10 | 10.0% | 40.0% | 7.20 | 0.70 | -35.00% |
| WATCH | 19 | 21.1% | 42.1% | 6.50 | 1.36 | +31.58% |
| PASS | 36 | 8.3% | 36.1% | 6.99 | 0.57 | -48.61% |
| Confirmed × BET | 10 | 10.0% | 40.0% | 7.20 | 0.70 | -35.00% |
| Radar × BET | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Watch Confirmed × BET especially. If it materially outperforms every other cohort over the next 100–200 selections, the compound-signal thesis will have earned its keep. Until then this is data collection, not evidence.
| Date | Pick 1 | Pick 2 | Pick 3 | Pick 4 | Pick 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 05 Nov 2026 Read why? → | Ten Cuidado 14:20 Southwell (AW) · 11/2 7TH Verify | Nolton Cross 14:53 Southwell (AW) · 5/1 5TH Verify | 🥈 2ND Bajan Bandit 16:15 Chelmsford (AW) · 5/1 Verify | Quiet Soul 17:00 Southwell (AW) · 15/2 7TH Verify | Moulton Queen 17:30 Southwell (AW) · 6/1 5TH Verify |
| Wed 04 Nov 2026 1W Read why? → | 🥉 3RD Tolstoy 14:45 Musselburgh · 11/2 Verify | 🥉 3RD Valentine Boy 15:00 Kempton (AW) · 11/2 PASS Verify | Homestrait 15:17 Musselburgh · 13/2 9TH Verify | Rogers Dream 15:55 Nottingham · 5/1 12TH PASS Verify | 🥇 WON The Rock Factor 19:15 Dundalk (AW) · 5/1 SP 11/2 PASS Verify |
| Tue 03 Nov 2026 1W Read why? → | 🥈 2ND Clean Getaway 14:29 Sedgefield · 5/1 WATCH Verify | Princess Felicia 16:04 Fairyhouse · 5/1 7TH PASS Verify | 🥇 WON Honour Your Dreams 18:30 Wolverhampton (AW) · 6/1 SP 13/2 WATCH Verify | Evening Blues 19:30 Wolverhampton (AW) · 8/1 8TH Verify | 🥉 3RD Havachoc 20:00 Wolverhampton (AW) · 15/2 Verify |
| Mon 02 Nov 2026 2W Read why? → | 🥇 WON Walk In The West 14:00 Plumpton · 5/1 SP 7/1 WATCH Verify | 🥈 2ND Reciprocated 17:00 Wolverhampton (AW) · 11/2 Verify | 🥉 3RD Invincible Isaac 18:15 Chelmsford (AW) · 17/2 Verify | Handle With Care 19:15 Chelmsford (AW) · 11/2 6TH Verify | 🥇 WON Deep Sleep 20:00 Wolverhampton (AW) · 5/1 SP 5/1 Verify |
| Sun 01 Nov 2026 Read why? → | 🥈 2ND Saracen Beau 12:45 Worcester · 6/1 Verify | Gazelle d'Or 12:52 Curragh · 7/1 5TH Verify | Therewillbeglory 14:02 Curragh · 11/2 7TH PASS Verify | 🥈 2ND Abbotsford 14:37 Curragh · 7/1 Verify | Uncle Goalie 15:12 Curragh · 13/2 4TH PASS Verify |
| Sat 31 Oct 2026 1W Read why? → | Man of Vision 13:05 Newmarket · 11/2 8TH Verify | 🥇 WON Arabian Light 14:44 Newmarket · 5/1 SP 9/2 Verify | Kennington 15:58 Newmarket · 5/1 14TH Verify | 🥈 2ND Mythical Isle 16:35 Southwell (AW) · 13/2 Verify | So Darn Hot 19:25 Southwell (AW) · 15/2 pending Verify |
| Fri 30 Oct 2026 Read why? → | 🥈 2ND Rory's Gold 16:15 Newcastle (AW) · 5/1 PASS Verify | Kody B 17:45 Newcastle (AW) · 6/1 9TH Verify | Great 19:15 Newcastle (AW) · 13/2 4TH Verify | Suir Monad 19:30 Dundalk (AW) · 13/2 9TH Verify | 🥈 2ND Jamaican Storm 19:45 Newcastle (AW) · 5/1 WATCH Verify |
| Thu 29 Oct 2026 Read why? → | Amplitude 13:35 Punchestown · 15/2 8TH PASS Verify | Over Spiced 15:12 Bath · 15/2 6TH Verify | Wintour 17:30 Southwell (AW) · 7/1 12TH Verify | Storm Free 19:00 Southwell (AW) · 13/2 10TH PASS Verify | 🥉 3RD Sycamore Gap 19:30 Southwell (AW) · 5/1 Verify |
| Wed 28 Oct 2026 Read why? → | Rambuso Creek 13:16 Nottingham · 11/2 4TH Verify | Moyassr 14:30 Dundalk (AW) · 11/2 10TH Verify | 🥈 2ND Amarachi 18:15 Kempton (AW) · 11/2 Verify | 🥈 2ND Forever Penywern 19:45 Kempton (AW) · 15/2 Verify | 🥈 2ND Split Elevens 20:15 Kempton (AW) · 5/1 Verify |
| Tue 27 Oct 2026 2W Read why? → | 🥇 WON Eldeyaar 14:10 Catterick · 5/1 SP 3/1F Verify | 🥇 WON Wobwobwob 15:10 Catterick · 6/1 SP 6/1 Verify | Inver Bay 16:25 Galway · 5/1 pending PASS Verify | Kudos Too 19:30 Wolverhampton (AW) · 11/2 10TH WATCH Verify | 🥈 2ND Kaaranah 20:00 Wolverhampton (AW) · 6/1 Verify |
| Mon 26 Oct 2026 Read why? → | Little Tiger 14:39 Leicester · 5/1 7TH PASS Verify | Timebar 16:30 Southwell (AW) · 6/1 5TH PASS Verify | 🥈 2ND Crossbar 18:45 Kempton (AW) · 6/1 PASS Verify | 🥉 3RD Overbudget 20:00 Southwell (AW) · 6/1 Verify | Ada Rose 20:15 Kempton (AW) · 5/1 4TH WATCH Verify |
| Sun 25 Oct 2026 Read why? → | Molto Bene 12:40 Aintree · 9/1 pending Verify | 🥈 2ND Kir 12:50 Wexford · 5/1 Verify | Springboard 13:42 Galway · 5/1 9TH PASS Verify | Space Warrior 14:50 Galway · 9/1 7TH Verify | Bluey 15:00 Aintree · 7/1 pending Verify |
| Sat 24 Oct 2026 1W Read why? → | 🥈 2ND Ancient State 12:55 Doncaster · 13/2 Verify | 🥇 WON Castlemont 15:55 Doncaster · 11/2 SP 6/1 Verify | Havachoc 17:30 Southwell (AW) · 7/1 5TH PASS Verify | African Spirit 19:00 Southwell (AW) · 6/1 7TH PASS Verify | Shaw Park 19:30 Southwell (AW) · 13/2 4TH Verify |
| Fri 23 Oct 2026 Read why? → | City Captain 14:10 Doncaster · 8/1 4TH Verify | Laurel Crown 15:55 Doncaster · 15/2 10TH Verify | Gonna Be Golden 18:15 Dundalk (AW) · 7/1 6TH PASS Verify | It's A Love Thing 19:00 Wolverhampton (AW) · 13/2 4TH Verify | Rastnet 19:30 Wolverhampton (AW) · 11/2 6TH PASS Verify |
| Thu 22 Oct 2026 1W Read why? → | Asteverdi 14:20 Newmarket · 15/2 13TH PASS Verify | Something Splendid 14:55 Newmarket · 11/2 8TH PASS Verify | The Quiet Gent 16:05 Newmarket · 13/2 8TH Verify | Izzari 18:30 Southwell (AW) · 5/1 8TH Verify | 🥇 WON Paradise Walk 20:30 Southwell (AW) · 8/1 SP 6/1 Verify |
| Wed 21 Oct 2026 Read why? → | 🥈 2ND Theflyingbee 17:04 Navan · 9/1 PASS Verify | Rex Regum 17:20 Newmarket · 13/2 6TH Verify | 🥉 3RD Sakowin 18:30 Kempton (AW) · 6/1 PASS Verify | 🥈 2ND Guildmaster 19:00 Kempton (AW) · 6/1 Verify | 🥉 3RD Liosa 19:30 Kempton (AW) · 13/2 PASS Verify |
| Tue 20 Oct 2026 Read why? → | Merisi Diamond 13:55 Curragh · 6/1 15TH PASS Verify | Court Drive 16:03 Yarmouth · 5/1 6TH Verify | Campani 16:38 Yarmouth · 6/1 6TH WATCH Verify | 🥉 3RD Mythical Rock 16:45 Curragh · 6/1 PASS Verify | Boubyan 18:00 Newcastle (AW) · 5/1 6TH Verify |
| Mon 19 Oct 2026 2W Read why? → | 🥇 WON Perigord Noir 14:17 Bath · 11/2 SP 4/1 Verify | 🥈 2ND Lady Roxby 15:23 Pontefract · 13/2 Verify | Impartiality 16:25 Pontefract · 11/2 6TH WATCH Verify | Dandana 18:15 Wolverhampton (AW) · 13/2 outside Verify | 🥇 WON Yankee Dude 19:00 Southwell (AW) · 11/2 SP 11/2 Verify |
| Sun 18 Oct 2026 1W Read why? → | At The Wings 15:00 Limerick · 7/1 outside Verify | Playin Cool 15:12 Leopardstown · 11/2 14TH PASS Verify | Uhavemeinstitches 16:00 Limerick · 5/1 outside PASS Verify | 🥇 WON Truth Be Told 16:42 Leopardstown · 11/2 SP 5/1 Verify | Purely 17:12 Leopardstown · 7/1 4TH Verify |
| Sat 17 Oct 2026 Read why? → | Daiquiri Bay 13:30 Ascot · 9/1 9TH Verify | 🥈 2ND Ten Bob Tony 15:20 Ascot · 7/1 Verify | Forest Caper 16:10 Catterick · 11/2 9TH WATCH Verify | Hickory 16:35 Ascot · 8/1 7TH Verify | 🥈 2ND Always Happy 17:00 Southwell (AW) · 11/2 Verify |
| Fri 16 Oct 2026 Read why? → | Monoceros 14:17 Haydock · 11/2 8TH Verify | 🥈 2ND Return To Unit 14:52 Haydock · 8/1 PASS Verify | Yafaarr 16:43 Newcastle (AW) · 11/2 4TH Verify | 🥈 2ND Kiss Me My Love 16:48 Redcar · 6/1 PASS Verify | Jam Lass 17:23 Redcar · 13/2 7TH PASS Verify |
| Thu 15 Oct 2026 1W Read why? → | Valadero 13:32 Brighton · 11/2 4TH WATCH Verify | 🥉 3RD Dream of Ithaca 15:15 Brighton · 6/1 WATCH Verify | Port Darwin 15:50 Brighton · 15/2 6TH WATCH Verify | 🥇 WON Gone Rogue 16:25 Brighton · 5/1 SP 5/1F PASS Verify | Cuban Grey 16:32 Curragh · 6/1 15TH PASS Verify |
| Wed 14 Oct 2026 Read why? → | Mythical Tale 14:29 Nottingham · 6/1 6TH Verify | 🥉 3RD Kitaro Kich 18:00 Kempton (AW) · 8/1 Verify | Philanthropist 19:00 Kempton (AW) · 11/2 4TH Verify | Charmaine 20:00 Kempton (AW) · 5/1 4TH Verify | Tenison 20:30 Kempton (AW) · 5/1 9TH Verify |
| Tue 13 Oct 2026 Read why? → | 🥉 3RD Notimetotakeoff 13:24 Leicester · 6/1 Verify | Romidijo 13:54 Leicester · 17/2 7TH Verify | That's Random 15:39 Leicester · 5/1 8TH Verify | 🥉 3RD Francesi 16:14 Leicester · 11/2 WATCH Verify | Kodi Lion 16:47 Leicester · 9/1 5TH Verify |
| Mon 12 Oct 2026 1W Read why? → | 🥇 WON Contrary To Law 14:00 Roscommon · 11/2 SP 7/2F PASS Verify | 🥈 2ND Invincible Crown 15:17 Musselburgh · 6/1 PASS Verify | Raffles Angel 16:24 Yarmouth · 5/1 12TH PASS Verify | Secret Guest 18:30 Newcastle (AW) · 5/1 4TH PASS Verify | Yorkshire 18:45 Kempton (AW) · 13/2 10TH PASS Verify |
| Sun 11 Oct 2026 Read why? → | 🥉 3RD Wise And Wonderful 14:57 Goodwood · 5/1 BET Verify | Western George 15:12 Chepstow · 11/2 4TH Verify | Comfort Zone 16:15 Naas · 7/1 6TH BET Verify | Cerulean Bay 16:42 Goodwood · 6/1 8TH BET Verify | Ankara 17:25 Naas · 11/2 4TH WATCH Verify |
| Sat 10 Oct 2026 Read why? → | 🥉 3RD Apulia Bay 13:50 Newmarket · 5/1 BET Verify | Water To Wine 14:05 York · 6/1 16TH Verify | Unauthorized 16:08 Naas · 5/1 11TH WATCH Verify | Minstrel Knight 16:32 York · 8/1 11TH BET Verify | Jeteye 16:55 Hexham · 11/2 5TH Verify |
| Fri 09 Oct 2026 2W Read why? → | 🥇 WON Harper Violet 14:40 York · 11/2 SP 9/2 BET Verify | 🥈 2ND Threelittleangels 16:05 Kempton (AW) · 5/1 BET Verify | Sekakarma 16:30 Downpatrick · 6/1 12TH BET Verify | 🥇 WON Send Harry 18:30 Dundalk (AW) · 5/1 SP 100/30 WATCH Verify | Ohailbhic 19:00 Dundalk (AW) · 17/2 7TH BET Verify |
| Thu 08 Oct 2026 Read why? → | Ophelia 13:16 Thurles · 17/2 4TH Verify | Annie Edson Taylor 15:30 Ayr · 10/1 8TH Verify | Blufferonthebus 16:38 Ayr · 11/2 9TH WATCH Verify | 🥈 2ND Kimy 17:05 Tramore · 17/2 Verify | Edge of Desire 20:00 Southwell (AW) · 17/2 4TH Verify |
| Wed 07 Oct 2026 1W Read why? → | What's Enough 14:15 Navan · 12/1 6TH Verify | Dark Whisper 15:29 Nottingham · 6/1 5TH BET Verify | 🥇 WON Edwin Hubble 16:29 Nottingham · 5/1 SP 9/2J WATCH Verify | 🥉 3RD Roe And Co 16:35 Worcester · 12/1 Verify | Mr Perth 17:18 Navan · 11/2 4TH WATCH Verify |