Winning form at Listed level in a 7f heat last time out makes Ellusive Butterfly a real contender here — effective on any going and versatile from 7-8f. Now carries a penalty though, which is the one thing rivals will be hoping tells against her.
Form last 6124471
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
113SR—RPR100OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Form figures showing two recent wins followed by a 7th and 1st suggest inconsistency, limiting confidence despite a competitive 113 Saturday Rating at 5/2.
Albaydaa has two wins in her last five starts and arrived at this level in excellent heart, taking a handicap here last time with a narrow but decisive display showing real tenacity. Effective from 6-7f on a range of surfaces, she tops our figures and has scope for more at this grade.
Form last 621-321
★AI Rating★★★★☆
105SR—RPR86OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Rated 105 with consistent form figures of 21-321 and accessible 13/8 odds, Albaydaa presents strong each-way credentials at 9-2 weight.
Placed here at Carlisle last time, which gives Applesandpears a course angle to cling to, and she handles today's distance and going. Our figures rank her ninth of ten, however, and she needs to find considerably more to threaten the market leaders.
Form last 6211-83
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
83SR—RPR84OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Rated just 83 with weak 211-83 form and drifting at 16/1, Applesandpears lacks the market confidence to threaten in this Listed heat.
Positioned too far off the pace at Epsom last time, Assaranca still shaped with promise in a strong Listed heat, suggesting there is ability to show at this level; effective over 7-8f on any surface. A repeat of her best is needed to figure from stall nine here.
Form last 66-6315
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
70SR—RPR79OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 70 and 20/1 odds signal weak market confidence, compounded by inconsistent form showing two sixth-place finishes.
Blinkers go on for the first time and Classic Cuvee likely found a Listed contest too hot for her last month — comfortably held on form that had previously been better. Effective over 7f on a sound surface, a sharper display is required to land a blow here.
Form last 62189-6
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
86SR—RPR87OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Outsider odds of 12/1, a modest Saturday Rating of 86, and inconsistent form reading 2189-6 signal limited winning prospects here.
Lightly raced after just two recent starts, Confide In Me matched her debut form when runner-up at Redcar last time, yet steps into significantly tougher company now. Acts over today's distance and going, but a major leap forward is needed to threaten at this level.
Form last 612
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
64SR—RPR77OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Outsider odds of 40/1 and a low Saturday Rating of 64 undermine her promising 12 form in this Listed contest.
A competitive sort who fits well at 6f on testing ground and has done enough over today's trip to suggest she belongs at this level; Figjam ran down the field over 7f last time, a flat effort, and the return to her best form is required. The ability is there — consistency is the question.
Form last 612-746
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
79SR—RPR93OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 79, 20/1 odds, and patchy recent form (12-746) confirm Figjam as a 2/5 outsider with little market support.
Close-up third at Musselburgh last time — just two lengths behind the principals — Golden Palace has the class and stamina for today's trip and goes well on a sound surface. Yet to get her head in front in recent starts, but capable of a sharp effort at this grade.
Form last 6765-73
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
106SR—RPR99OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Solid Saturday Rating of 106 and fair 11/2 odds are undermined by uninspiring 765-73 form carrying 9-2 weight.
Proximity at Carlisle last time — a close second in a 7f handicap here — gives Just A Girl a strong course-and-distance angle, and she handles today's ground. Our figures rank her eighth in this ten-runner field, however, and she requires considerably more to reach the front end.
Form last 67-3422
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
80SR—RPR83OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Rated just 80 with 16/1 odds and recent form showing a seventh, she lacks the market confidence for Listed class.
Placed on the clock at Chantilly on her last start, running to level beaten a little over three lengths, Stimulative Trip handles today's distance and going and arrives here with a jockey who knows this course well retained. Two disappointing finishes before that win are the main concern.
Form last 61-96
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
93SR—RPR89OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Rated 93 with inconsistent form (1-96) and 8/1 odds signal limited confidence despite a solid weight of 9-2.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Ellusive Butterfly owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (63) and market confidence (88). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
5/2K R BurkeC Lee
68%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Albaydaa
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
13/8 · W J Haggas✓ Value Signal
Classic Cuvee
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
25/1 · R Varian◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Form figures showing two recent wins followed by a 7th and 1st suggest inconsistency, limiting confidence despite a competitive 113 Saturday Rating at 5/2.
Albaydaa (SR 105, 13/8) carries 9-2 and holds the strongest market confidence in the field, shortening to favouritism for good reason — a form line of 21-321 shows consistent placed form at a level that maps well to Listed company, and Haggas fillies travelling north for a target are rarely sent without intent. Her SR of 105 leads the field alongside Golden Palace (SR 106) but Albaydaa carries the same weight (9-2) as Golden Palace while boasting a markedly more consistent recent form line; Golden Palace's 765-73 shows a horse in and out of form. Ellusive Butterfly (SR 113, 5/2) is the only horse with a superior SR but her last-run '1' is preceded by a '4', '4', '7' sequence suggesting inconsistency, and at 9-5 she carries the weight penalty without demonstrating the reliability Albaydaa shows. The Good to Firm ground at Carlisle over 6f 195y suits a filly with Albaydaa's profile — progressive, consistent, and trained by a handler with a strong strike rate at this level.
Each-way alternative: Ellusive Butterfly.
Main danger: Ellusive Butterfly — Ellusive Butterfly's SR of 113 is the highest in the field and her most recent run was a win, giving Burke's filly the profile of a horse peaking at exactly the right time — if her 'last-run winner' form translates to Listed level, she beats everything here.
ShortlistAlbaydaa, Ellusive Butterfly, Golden Palace