Ran keen and was unable to land a blow at Musselburgh last time, beaten seven and a half lengths; returns to AW where the trainer has had success, effective at 6-7f on a sound surface, and held up as usual — but needs a sharper performance to feature, without a win in recent starts.
Form last 638-056
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
57SR—RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 57 and poor form of 38-056 make 11/1 odds reflect limited winning prospects at 9-9.
Wide and well beaten at Goodwood most recently, below normal form, Fanjove gets first-time blinkers on a return to AW; effective at 6-7f on this surface and there is more chance here than last time, but needs to demonstrate a significant improvement.
Form last 612-469
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
64SR—RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Fanjove's inconsistent form (12-469), low Saturday Rating of 64, and 9/1 odds suggest limited winning prospects despite carrying 9-9.
Without a win in recent starts, Saxon Prince was a little below form at Ripon last time at the longer trip; stays 7f and the likely pace will play to this runner's strengths, acts on AW, and reliable enough in form that a return from a short break here off the same sort of mark could see this runner go well.
Form last 656-526
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
64SR—RPR64OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Saxon Prince's Saturday Rating of 64, 9-8 weight burden, and inconsistent 56-526 form justify the 15/2 odds and 2-star rating.
Stamina has been questioned over 7f at Chester last time, beaten six and a quarter lengths, Elemma is a speed-bred type with a trainer who has a strong record in this type of race; wide draw to overcome, but pedigree all points to 5-6f rather than 7f, making this a risk at the trip.
Form last 6457
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
51SR—RPR64OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 51, weak 457 form, and 16/1 odds signal the market holds little confidence in Elemma carrying 9-8.
Two unexplained poor runs have followed a win, and in a visor Smartanck was well beaten at Doncaster most recently; effective at 7-8f on AW and needs to demonstrate there is nothing wrong, a first-time tongue-strap fitted but confidence is low.
Form last 64-9100
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
43SR—RPR64OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 43, poor recent form (4-9100), and 25/1 odds signal minimal winning chance.
Beaten seven lengths at Bath last time but in better form prior, Bird Of War has a win in recent starts and handles various surfaces; effective at 1m on good to soft, good and AW — there is a case here if she recaptures the level of those better efforts this season.
Form last 6441-85
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
68SR—RPR64OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Solid 68 Saturday Rating and fair 6/1 odds, but 9-8 weight and patchy 441-85 form limit confidence.
Well beaten — thirteenth at Doncaster last time off this same mark — and ran keen in first-time headgear, Rousham had won two starts back; effective at 6-7f on a sound surface and a bounce back is needed here, carrying a hood for the first time.
Form last 607210
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
60SR—RPR63OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Rousham's 14/1 odds and modest Saturday Rating of 60 undermine confidence despite a recent win in mixed form.
Went with no cover and was never competitive at Doncaster last time after a stumble, Henriette Ronner is effective at 6-7f on AW; first-time blinkers and the mark is coming down but more is still required here.
Form last 6714950
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
43SR—RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 43, weak 714950 form, and 28/1 odds signal the market holds little confidence in this 9-6 weighted runner.
Beaten seven lengths in a maiden last time at a level similar to debut, Secretinthesky is typically dropped out and may improve once qualifying for handicaps; effective at 7f on good and AW and without a win in recent starts — hard to recommend at this stage.
Form last 648-5
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
47SR—RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Carrying 9-6 at 18/1 with a Saturday Rating of just 47 and poor form figures of 48-5 makes Secretinthesky a weak outsider.
Wide draw to overcome, Popty Ping has been below form in recent starts but there is a case that the last run understated the true ability, off this same mark; effective at 6-8f on soft, good and AW with a first-time visor, and there is an outside chance here.
Form last 6614276
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
63SR—RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Carrying top weight of 9-5 with inconsistent form (614276) and a modest Saturday Rating of 63 makes Popty Ping poor value at 7/1.
Finished with power at Wolverhampton last time to win a handicap by two lengths off a mark 6lb lower — the best handicap run to date — and acts well at 7f on AW; the 6lb rise is stiff but there is likely further improvement to come and our rating puts Based at the head of the weights.
Form last 678-271
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
69SR—RPR59OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 69 and inconsistent form (78-271) at 9-3 weight limit the appeal despite competitive 9/4 odds.
Consistent fourth last time at this same mark, Maynora stayed on to be beaten two lengths and acts on good and AW; effective at 6-7f and form has been solid — this runner is the main danger to our selection and has to be considered seriously.
Form last 6525144
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
61SR—RPR58OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Maynora's inconsistent form (525144), low Saturday Rating of 61, and 11/1 odds suggest limited winning prospects here.
Pressed hard on the lead at Doncaster last time before fading to be beaten one and a quarter lengths off this same mark, Surgeon Commander is effective at 6-7f on AW with first-time blinkers today; cannot be dismissed and could go better if getting a cleaner lead.
Form last 6-71364
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
67SR—RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Carrying 9-1 with a modest Saturday Rating of 67 and patchy form of -71364 at 13/2 makes Surgeon Commander a speculative each-way option.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Bird Of War owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (38) and market confidence (82). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
4/1C HillsHarry Vigors
66%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Surgeon Commander
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
11/2 · Craig Lidster✓ Value Signal
Secretinthesky
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
25/1 · Miss J A Camacho◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Based (SR 69, 9/4) carries a favourable 9-3 — the lightest weight among the top-rated horses — and arrives on a strong form line of 78-271, with that last-run win confirming peak fitness. The SR of 69 is the joint-highest in the field alongside Bird Of War, but Based holds a 5lb weight advantage over Bird Of War (9-8) and a 6lb edge on the higher-rated Bird Of War equivalent, making the lbs-adjusted edge decisive on Good to Soft ground where weight matters. The market has installed Based as a clear 9/4 favourite, shortened with purpose, reflecting genuine confidence from the W J Knight yard rather than casual punter drift. Surgeon Commander (SR 67, 13/2) offers the main threat at a price but carries only 9-1 and has a 6 in last run suggesting inconsistency.
Each-way alternative: Surgeon Commander.
Main danger: Bird Of War — Bird Of War (SR 68, 6/1) has a form line of 441-85 showing course-level competitiveness and sits joint-highest on SR, but the 9-8 weight burden versus Based's 9-3 is the critical difference on Good to Soft ground.
ShortlistBased, Bird Of War, Surgeon Commander, Popty Ping