Familiar with today's ground and carrying experience in this grade, Dawn Rising heads our figures despite a below-par season to date; the 12f trip looks a shade short of his ideal range and a stronger showing is needed to justify favouritism.
Form last 652-807
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
68SR—RPR99OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Carrying top weight of 10-0 at 25/1 with a Saturday Rating of 68 and poor recent form of 52-807 makes Dawn Rising a weak contender.
Consistent performer effective at today's trip, This Songisforyou has a top rider back on board after fading quickly following a series of errors in a maiden hurdle at Clonmel last time; his mark looks about right and he faces a stiff task.
Form last 6/6550-
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
65SR—RPR97OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Longshot odds of 28/1, poor form figures of /6550-, and a low Saturday Rating of 65 make this horse uncompetitive.
Useful Flat performer with scope for further improvement at this longer trip, In My Teens was found wanting for pace when beaten seven lengths here last time; a first-time hood could help and she is open to progress, though the trainer's recent record is a note of caution.
Form last 62122-9
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
83SR—RPR96OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Solid Saturday Rating of 83 and consistent form of 2122-9 are offset by a testing weight of 9-11 at 10/1.
Back on a workable mark and proven at today's trip and going, Cloud Seeker came back to form here last time beaten four lengths after a break; effective at 10-12f with an accessible weight, he merits respect in a wide-open field.
Form last 674-205
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
86SR—RPR92OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Carrying 9-7 with inconsistent form (74-205), a Saturday Rating of 86, and 9/1 odds reflects limited winning prospects here.
On a hot streak with three wins in recent starts, The Real Screamer landed a handicap by four lengths at Leopardstown last time off a lower mark and continues to progress; now at a career-high official mark, the question is whether that momentum can be maintained.
Form last 6144-11
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
95SR—RPR91OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Solid recent form (144-11) and a competitive 95 Saturday Rating are offset by a hefty 9-6 weight at 15/2 odds.
Maiden winner who looked in good shape before stepping into Group company, Marazion was beaten six lengths in a Group 3 at Cork last time and returns to handicaps on what looks a fair mark; proven at today's trip on soft and good ground.
Form last 637-126
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
88SR—RPR90OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Marazion's poor recent form (37-126), high weight of 9-5, and 10/1 odds suggest limited winning prospects here.
Won at Killarney two starts back and ran a fine race last time despite missing the break and doing too much too soon, Factual Fact is in good form and effective at this trip; the 4lb rise makes life slightly harder but he remains very much in the mix.
Form last 622-212
★AI Rating★★★★☆
95SR—RPR89OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Consistent form (22-212), a competitive 95 Saturday Rating, and fair 10/3 odds make Factual Fact a strong each-way contender despite carrying 9-4.
Off a 90-day break and carrying a still-stiff mark, What's Your Game was taken too far forward over an extended trip at Navan on his return and failed to see it out; effective up to 13f on a variety of surfaces but needs a more patient ride here.
Form last 6126-50
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
62SR—RPR89OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 62, 50/1 odds, and poor recent form figures of 126-50 highlight minimal winning prospects.
Faded late when beaten four lengths here last time after a break, Retracement is on a mark that looks about right; a trainer in form is a positive and today's ground suits, but he ranks towards the lower end of our figures and has more to prove.
Form last 68410-6
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
82SR—RPR88OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 82 and uninspiring form figures of 8410-6 at 12/1 suggest the market has little confidence in Retracement.
Back in form at Carlisle last time when beaten just over two lengths off a slightly lower mark, Star Harbour is a capable veteran who handles today's going and distance; a first-time visor could help him focus and he merits respect despite a mixed recent strike rate.
Form last 6-65042
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
70SR—RPR88OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 70, weak form (-65042), and 20/1 odds signal Star Harbour is a long shot with little winning evidence.
Two wins in recent starts including a handicap at Gowran Park last time off a 9lb lower mark, Obscenity has been progressing steadily and tries a first-time visor here; effective at today's trip, he may have a little more in hand though he steps up in mark.
Form last 64-3121
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
98SR—RPR87OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Rated 98 with solid recent form (4-3121) and fair 4/1 odds, but 9-2 weight limits appeal in a competitive Premier Handicap.
Won back-to-back in recent starts including a narrow success at Leopardstown last time after being forced to switch, Truth Be Told is still relatively unexposed at middle distances and has more to come; he sits at the foot of our figures and steps up in competition here.
Form last 65941-1
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
87SR—RPR87OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 87 and winning form (5941-1) offer solid claims, but 9-2 weight and 8/1 odds suggest the market holds reservations.
Progressive on the Flat and suited by today's trip, Navy Waters returns from a hurdles debut at Punchestown where she ran respectably; she has flat form to suggest she can be competitive but sits towards the lower end of our figures and faces an uphill task.
Form last 6128-35
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
83SR—RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Rated 83 with patchy form (128-35) and carrying 9-0 at 17/2, Navy Waters offers moderate each-way appeal without market support.
Beaten five lengths here last time and seemingly crying out for a stiffer test, Railwayview Lady steps up in trip today and tries first-time cheekpieces; effective at 10-12f on suitable ground and the longer distance is a plus, but the mark still looks stiff.
Form last 6120-88
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
72SR—RPR81OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 72 and inconsistent form (120-88) at 14/1 makes Railwayview Lady a low-confidence outsider carrying 8-10.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Factual Fact owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (53) and market confidence (85). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
10/3Henry De BromheadRonan Whelan
73%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Obscenity
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
7/2 · Joseph Patrick O'Brien✓ Value Signal
Dawn Rising
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
28/1 · Joseph Patrick O'Brien◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Factual Fact (SR 95, 10/3) arrives on a rock-solid 22-212 form string — two places and a win in three recent starts — making him the most consistent performer in the field. His SR of 95 matches joint-top with Obscenity yet he carries only 9-4, a 2lb pull on Obscenity (9-2) despite identical ratings, and a meaningful edge over both. The market has installed him as clear favourite at 10/3, with the 4-star AI probability the strongest in the race, reflecting confidence across multiple signals. Henry De Bromhead's yard targeting a Premier Handicap with a horse on a winning mark and in-form profile is a serious pointer — this horse is here to win.
Each-way alternative: Truth Be Told.
Main danger: Obscenity — Obscenity (SR 98, 4/1) is the joint-top-rated horse and arrives on a 4-3121 sequence including back-to-back wins, with Joseph Patrick O'Brien's yard in clear form — if the market begins to shorten further toward the off, he is the one most capable of overhauling Factual Fact.
ShortlistFactual Fact, Obscenity, The Real Screamer, Truth Be Told