COLM QUINN BMW Novice Hurdle (Listed) · 2m0f110y
SR 158 backed by market confidence at 9/4 — a genuine contender.
SR 152 backed by market confidence at 9/2 — a genuine contender.
SR 130 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 78 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 56 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
Favourable weight of 11-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 128 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Favourable weight of 10-13 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 144 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Gomez Addams | 9/4 | — | 5/2 open 3.25 | 5/2 open 3.25 | 5/2 open 3.25 | 9/4 | 5/2 Coral |
| 2 Magico | 9/2 open 6.00 | — | 4/1 | 4/1 | 4/1 | 4/1 | 9/2 Bet365 |
| 3 Porcupine Bank | 17/2 open 8.50 | — | 17/2 open 9.00 | 17/2 | 8/1 open 9.50 | 17/2 | 17/2 Bet365 |
| 4 Brosna Town | 50/1 | — | 50/1 | 50/1 | 50/1 | 50/1 | 50/1 Bet365 |
| 5 Bruise Hill | 50/1 | — | 40/1 open 51.00 | 40/1 open 51.00 | 50/1 | 50/1 | 50/1 Bet365 |
| 6 Lizzie Twigg | 9/4 open 3.00 | — | 9/4 open 3.00 | 9/4 open 3.00 | 9/4 open 3.00 | 9/4 open 3.00 | 9/4 Bet365 |
| 7 Milan Forth | 25/1 open 19.00 | — | 28/1 open 26.00 | 28/1 open 26.00 | 28/1 open 26.00 | 28/1 open 26.00 | 28/1 Coral |
| 8 Fastnet Crystal | 6/1 | — | 6/1 | 6/1 | 11/2 open 7.00 | 13/2 open 7.00 | 13/2 Betfred |
| 9 Brave Lady | 16/1 | — | 14/1 | 14/1 | 16/1 open 15.00 | 14/1 | 16/1 Bet365 |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Magico owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (84) and market confidence (79). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalSR 158 backed by market confidence at 9/4 — a genuine contender.
Favourable weight of 11-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 152 backed by market confidence at 9/2 — a genuine contender.
Favourable weight of 10-13 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 130 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 144 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Gomez Addams (SR 158, 9/4) is the highest-rated horse in the field and brings a strong form line of 15-1 — a last-time-out win after a season break — trained by Henry De Bromhead whose 14% strike rate is solid for this level. Despite carrying 11-6, he shares that weight burden with Magico, so there is no relative disadvantage at the top of the weights versus the one rival with a comparable SR. Darragh O'Keeffe is a proven pilot with a 14% career rate, and at 9/4 the market is pricing him as co-favourite, reflecting genuine confidence from the De Bromhead yard. Crucially, GoingFit is unknown (?) rather than negative (-), which is a meaningfully better profile than Magico's confirmed poor record on good ground. Each-way alternative: Fastnet Crystal. Main danger: Lizzie Twigg — Lizzie Twigg (SR 136, 9/4 co-favourite) has a strong recent 15-11 form line, is ridden by the high-quality Jack Kennedy (20% career strike rate from 587 rides), and Gordon Elliott clearly rates her as the yard's #1 runner given that booking over the lower-profile Sam Ewing on Porcupine Bank — despite the 8% market drift, the connections signal suggests this is a genuine contender.