Freda bounced back to win three starts back and arrives here fresh on 14 days' rest, with experience of today's trip and going in her favour; a minor blip in form since that win is the only mild reservation, but the overall profile makes her our selection.
Form last 6236154
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
78SR82RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 78 suggests ability but 7/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Won two starts back but has been held to fifth last time out, and Liberate — drawn in stall ten carrying 140 lb — has run over today's trip before; a rating of 72 suggests she holds a slim edge on official figures, though her inconsistent recent profile gives little cause for confidence.
Form last 6559215
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
53SR72RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 53 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Top-rated on our figures, Mollie Foster has run over today's distance and going before and returns on a sharp turnaround of 12 days, yet the chief concern is a recent sequence of six starts without a win that she must reverse off 138 lb from stall 7.
Form last 6666660
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
45SR83RPR68OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 45 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
Winning last time out and second two starts back reads well for Nothing But Love, and she has run over today's trip; the 138 lb burden from stall 6 is the chief query as she tries to build on that recent momentum.
Form last 65421
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
71SR72RPR68OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
A winner two starts back and third three starts back hints at ability, but she is rated 70 and ranked seventh of ten, and a fifth last time out is the blot; she has run over today's trip and returns after 33 days carrying 136 lb from stall eight.
Form last 64-5315
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
63SR70RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 63 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last three starts and ranked last on our figures, Protectrix looks hard to fancy, though she has run over today's trip before and the third last time out offers a slim crumb of encouragement.
Form last 6763
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
66SR57RPR68OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 66 suggests ability but 9/4 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Bofa Beach shaped with promise when third two starts back and again four starts back, and our rating of 80 suggests she holds more in hand than her official mark of 68 implies; the concern is that she remains winless in recent starts and must bounce back from an unplaced effort last time.
Form last 60-3930
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
63SR81RPR68OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 63 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Placed third three starts back but winless in recent starts, Goomah has run over today's trip and our rating of 73 gives her a case as a live danger from stall 3; the concern is a 77-day absence returning after two below-par efforts.
Form last 676-308
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
66SR73RPR68OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 66 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked eighth of ten on our figures, Sunshine And Roses faces a stiff task, though she does bring distance and going experience and bounced back to second last time out after an unplaced effort two starts back, suggesting she retains some form.
Form last 6712202
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
66SR67RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 66 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last five starts and ranked ninth of ten on our figures, Case Study is hard to fancy here, though she has experience over today's trip and going, and a second three starts back shows she can be competitive on her day.
Form last 65-8204
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
39SR62RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 39 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Protectrix owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (37) and market confidence (91). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
2/1John ButlerBilly Loughnane
67%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Freda
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
7/2 · Pat Phelan✓ Value Signal
Case Study
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
50/1 · Laura Mongan◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Freda (SR 78, 7/2) is the clear class leader in this field — her SR of 78 sits well above the next-best Nothing But Love (SR 71) and a cluster of 3-year-olds on SR 63-66. She carries 10-0 but her mark has dropped 2lb since last win, meaning she's running off a more lenient rating. The 20% market move inward is the strongest steamer in the race and aligns with Pat Phelan's booking of a jockey who is winning at 14% — connections are clearly confident. Crucially, she has a Course:W1P1 record at Kempton, which is meaningful on an AW track with strong course-specialist tendencies, and her form string 236154 shows consistent competitiveness with a recent win.
Each-way alternative: Protectrix.
Main danger: Protectrix — Protectrix (SR 66, 9/4 favourite) has steamed in 24% in the market and carries the John Butler yard's #1 jockey booking in Billy Loughnane (18% career strike rate, the highest in the race), dropping a class on 9-8 — the market is pricing her as if she's well ahead of her handicap mark and she could easily outrun her SR if the form from her three-run novice campaign translates to this company.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Protectrix is the race's strongest market mover (in 24%) at a shorter price of 9/4, suggesting market confidence is split and a rival is attracting sharper money than Freda's 20% move warrants.
Freda carries top weight of 10-0 against a field of lighter 3-year-olds getting significant weight allowances — the 3yo fillies (9-2 to 9-8) receive 12-26lb, a meaningful physical advantage on AW.
Form string 236154 shows Freda's recent win followed by a '4' finish — her last two runs read 5 then 4, suggesting she may have been in a downward trajectory since that victory.
Nothing But Love arrives on a hot 4-run form string ending in a win (5421) with a stable mark and has closed the SR gap to just 7 points, making Freda's class edge less dominant than it appears.
ShortlistFreda, Nothing But Love, Protectrix, Goomah