Red Glory shaped well when third two starts back and is fit enough on a 25-day break, with experience on today's going lending confidence; the concern is that a fourth last time out suggests he needs things to fall right, and 166 lb is a stern ask.
Form last 621-534
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
118SR123RPR126OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 118 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Chanceawetmorning shaped well with a third last time out and has winning form in recent starts, while experience over today's trip and going adds to his claims; however, a struggling trainer strike-rate and a rating of 118 in a field of 13 temper enthusiasm.
Form last 6-13193
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
112SR118RPR125OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 112 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Dreal Deal ran a fine second two starts back and has experience of today's trip and conditions, with our rating of 132 marking him out as a genuine danger; the concern is a sixth last time out that leaves him needing to bounce back, and he remains winless in recent starts.
Form last 6037-26
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
96SR132RPR124OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 96 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Liam Swagger arrives on the back of two wins in his last four starts, with a second and a third since suggesting he retains strong competitive form, and he has run on today's going before; the chief concern is whether 163 lb ultimately anchors him late.
Form last 61123/
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
111SR125RPR123OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 111 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Final Orders won two starts back and rates well clear of his 12 rivals on our ratings, his experience over today's trip and going standing him in good stead; the 137-day absence is the one query, but the class is undeniable.
Form last 631517-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
124SR146RPR122OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 124 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Avalo showed he can win at this level, landing a victory two starts back, but has disappointed either side of it and comes into this ranked ninth of thirteen; the experience over today's trip and going is a plus, though 159 lb is a stiff ask.
Form last 62201-0
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
112SR117RPR119OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 112 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Consistent but yet to win, Theflyingbee has finished second in each of her last two starts and third three starts back, arriving here fresh on 17 days' rest with experience of today's trip and going; a hefty 157 lb is the main obstacle to her breaking that duck.
Form last 6533-22
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
112SR120RPR117OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 112 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Arctic Flame has won in recent starts and returns on a reasonable 23-day break having run over today's trip and going before, but a sixth last time out and our figures ranking her twelfth of thirteen runners make her hard to fancy at these weights.
Form last 605-216
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
109SR114RPR115OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 109 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Ranked well down on our figures in a 13-runner field, Barrys Spirit has been unplaced on his latest start and has managed just one win in his last five, making him hard to fancy at the weights with 155 lb to carry, though he does have going experience in his favour.
Form last 69415-0
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
93SR115RPR115OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 93 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Yet to score in his last five starts and returning after a 514-day absence, Heroes Rise faces a stiff ask, with his trainer in particularly poor recent form; he has run over today's trip and going before, and a rating of 123 offers some encouragement for a bold show.
Form last 682342/
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
115SR123RPR115OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 115 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Serienmond has run over today's trip and going before, yet he remains winless in his last five starts with finishes no better than fifth, and 154 lb is a stiff ask; the drop to 25 days since his last outing at least suggests he arrives fresh.
Form last 67509-6
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
106SR120RPR114OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 106 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last five starts, with a fall also blotting his recent copybook, Elusive Ogie faces a stiff ask from 152 lb; he has run over today's trip and going before, and 24 days between runs leaves him reasonably fresh, but his profile makes him very hard to fancy here.
Form last 69-F058
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
96SR116RPR112OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 96 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Two pulled-ups in her last four starts make Camlin Park extremely difficult to trust, and she ranks last on our figures among today's thirteen runners; the sole bright spot is a win five starts back and some familiarity with today's going.
Form last 61PP-74
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
89SR110RPR110OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 89 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Theflyingbee owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (62) and market confidence (75). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
11/2F G HandMr J R Martin(7)
67%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Red Glory
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
9/2 · Henry De Bromhead✓ Value Signal
Dreal Deal
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
25/1 · P J Rothwell◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Liam Swagger (SR:111, 13/2) is the standout market mover in this field, steaming in 27% from opening — by far the strongest market signal in the race and a clear indicator of stable confidence from William Durkan's yard (14% strike rate). At 5 years old with a form line of 1123/ showing consistent competitiveness including a recent win, this is a progressive young horse dropping down to 11-9 — a favourable weight in a field where the top-raters are burdened considerably higher. Final Orders (SR:124) holds the class lead but ran 137 days ago off a mark 25lb below his last win and has drifted 6%; Red Glory (SR:118) carries 11-12 top-weight on going it demonstrably dislikes (GoingFit:-) and has drifted 8%. The 27% market move into Liam Swagger, combined with youth, progressive form, and a relatively light burden, outweighs the modest SR deficit against the nominal class leader.
Each-way alternative: Final Orders.
Main danger: Heroes Rise — Jack Kennedy's 19% career strike rate is the best jockey booking in the field, and Gordon Elliott's 15% yard strike rate gives Heroes Rise (SR:115, 8/1) genuine each-way claims if returning fresh from a break in good order.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Liam Swagger's form line ends with a slash (1123/) indicating a significant absence — 28 days is modest but the slash suggests a longer layoff preceded this entry, leaving fitness a genuine question…
SR:111 is 4 points below Theflyingbee (SR:112 at 6/1, shorter price) and 7 below Heroes Rise (SR:115 at 8/1 with Jack Kennedy, 19% strike rate) — the pick is not the class standout it's presented as.
Jockey Philip Byrnes has only a 10% strike rate from 242 rides — in a race where Heroes Rise has Jack Kennedy (19%) and Red Glory has Darragh O'Keeffe (14%), the riding edge works against Liam Swagge…
A 27% market move is compelling, but at 13/2 Liam Swagger is still drifting behind Theflyingbee at 6/1 — the market's actual favourite signal is not Liam Swagger, undermining the steam narrative.
ShortlistLiam Swagger, Final Orders, Heroes Rise, Theflyingbee