The Fox's Wire · Sly Man
Horses to Watch — Honest Record
Every daily selection since the ledger opened. Won? Gold. 2nd? Silver. 3rd? Bronze. No hiding.
740
Total picks
152
Winners
384
Placed (top 3)
51.9%
Placed hit-rate
Pricing verdict scoreboard
Shadow classifier — under evaluation. Mirrored from Pick Winner's frozen v1 policy so BET / WATCH / PASS reads identically across both products. BET = market may be soft · WATCH = fair-priced · PASS = priced against us.
- BET 16.0% strike +17.28% ROI n = 81
- WATCH 0.0% strike -100.00% ROI n = 17
- PASS no picks yet
Cohort matrix
Same settled picks as the scoreboard above, sliced by tier (Confirmed = Pick Winner agrees; Radar = story-only backfill) and by pricing verdict (BET / WATCH / PASS). A/E is actual wins ÷ expected wins from market-implied probability — above 1.00 is beating the market on that cohort. Rows with fewer than 20 picks are dimmed: small sample, treat with care.
| Cohort | n | Win % | Place % | Avg odds | A/E | ROI % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 98 | 13.3% | 40.8% | 7.39 | 0.95 | -3.06% |
| Confirmed | 98 | 13.3% | 40.8% | 7.39 | 0.95 | -3.06% |
| Radar | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| BET | 81 | 16.0% | 40.7% | 7.63 | 1.18 | +17.28% |
| WATCH | 17 | 0.0% | 41.2% | 6.26 | — | -100.00% |
| PASS | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Confirmed × BET | 81 | 16.0% | 40.7% | 7.63 | 1.18 | +17.28% |
| Radar × BET | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Watch Confirmed × BET especially. If it materially outperforms every other cohort over the next 100–200 selections, the compound-signal thesis will have earned its keep. Until then this is data collection, not evidence.
| Date | Pick 1 | Pick 2 | Pick 3 | Pick 4 | Pick 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 06 Oct 2026 1W Read why? → | 🥇 WON South Kensington 14:48 Brighton · 13/2 SP 13/2 BET Verify | Maestrow 15:41 Huntingdon · 8/1 7TH Verify | Quantum Power 15:51 Leicester · 11/2 6TH WATCH Verify | 🥈 2ND Nochebuena 20:00 Southwell (AW) · 5/1 Verify | Highfield Comrade 20:30 Southwell (AW) · 6/1 5TH BET Verify |
| Mon 05 Oct 2026 Read why? → | Educator 14:51 Stratford · 15/2 6TH Verify | 🥈 2ND Two To Tango 15:26 Stratford · 6/1 BET Verify | Rebel Reba 16:15 Fairyhouse · 5/1 6TH Verify | 🥉 3RD Magic Box 16:45 Kempton (AW) · 12/1 BET Verify | Magician of Riga 19:00 Wolverhampton (AW) · 11/2 5TH BET Verify |
| Sun 04 Oct 2026 Read why? → | Celtic Alliance 14:45 Killarney · 6/1 4TH BET Verify | Truth Be Told 15:05 Curragh · 11/2 outside WATCH Verify | Space Bear 15:40 Curragh · 14/1 4TH Verify | 🥈 2ND Uncle Remus 15:45 Uttoxeter · 6/1 BET Verify | Zolpharine 17:05 Killarney · 17/2 7TH BET Verify |
| Sat 03 Oct 2026 1W Read why? → | 🥇 WON Smallcraftwarning 14:30 Gowran Park · 13/2 SP 4/1F BET Verify | 🥉 3RD Realign 15:35 Ascot · 16/1 Verify | Tryst 15:50 Newmarket · 13/2 5TH BET Verify | Maelstrom 16:10 Ascot · 13/2 12TH BET Verify | 🥈 2ND Guernsey Angel 20:00 Southwell (AW) · 17/2 BET Verify |
| Fri 02 Oct 2026 Read why? → | Glory And Honour 15:23 Hexham · 13/2 6TH BET Verify | Killybegs Jet Lady 15:58 Hexham · 13/2 4TH BET Verify | 🥉 3RD Ardera Gun 16:16 Gowran Park · 9/1 BET Verify | Come On The Lads 16:50 Gowran Park · 15/2 12TH BET Verify | 🥉 3RD Near Perfection 20:00 Dundalk (AW) · 12/1 Verify |
| Thu 01 Oct 2026 1W Read why? → | 🥉 3RD Avebury Ring 15:08 Nottingham · 7/1 Verify | 🥇 WON Regional Rock 15:49 Salisbury · 11/2 SP 9/2F BET Verify | Sneddy Eddie 16:30 Bellewstown · 9/1 outside BET Verify | Duke of Luckley 16:35 Southwell · 6/1 4TH BET Verify | Secret Rock 17:05 Bellewstown · 11/1 8TH BET Verify |
| Wed 30 Sep 2026 2W Read why? → | 🥇 WON Monhammer 14:48 Musselburgh · 5/1 SP 5/1 BET Verify | 🥈 2ND Mic Drop 15:30 Sligo · 11/2 WATCH Verify | 🥉 3RD Nascent Star 16:55 Kempton (AW) · 5/1 BET Verify | 🥇 WON Simple Star 17:08 Musselburgh · 11/2 SP 4/1 BET Verify | 🥉 3RD Rovinia 20:30 Kempton (AW) · 13/2 BET Verify |
| Tue 29 Sep 2026 Read why? → | Two Plus Two 14:32 Bath · 13/2 7TH BET Verify | Count Palatine 15:38 Ayr · 17/2 7TH BET Verify | Manton Bay 15:55 Cork · 11/2 pending BET Verify | 🥈 2ND Parisiac 16:40 Ayr · 11/2 BET Verify | The Thames Boatman 17:07 Bath · 6/1 4TH BET Verify |
| Mon 28 Sep 2026 Read why? → | Sonas 13:35 Roscommon · 6/1 5TH Verify | 🥉 3RD Danehill Star 15:15 Brighton · 13/2 Verify | 🥉 3RD Duce Bigalow 15:20 Roscommon · 11/2 WATCH Verify | 🥉 3RD Stipulation 16:22 Wolverhampton (AW) · 5/1 WATCH Verify | Youcansaythatagain 17:25 Down Royal · 13/2 6TH BET Verify |
| Sun 27 Sep 2026 1W Read why? → | Telegraphic 13:37 Epsom · 6/1 7TH BET Verify | 🥇 WON Capability Brown 14:00 Curragh · 13/2 SP 4/1 Verify | Bincimbal 14:12 Epsom · 14/1 5TH Verify | Brussels 14:35 Curragh · 11/2 5TH Verify | Valiancy 16:20 Curragh · 9/1 28TH Verify |
| Sat 26 Sep 2026 2W Read why? → | 🥇 WON Accrual 14:49 Ripon · 8/1 SP 4/1F BET Verify | I'm Next 15:28 Ripon · 7/1 9TH BET Verify | 🥇 WON Come What May 16:55 Curragh · 5/1 SP 5/1 Verify | Indemnity 17:30 Market Rasen · 11/2 6TH BET Verify | Be Frank 20:00 Southwell (AW) · 11/2 10TH WATCH Verify |
| Fri 25 Sep 2026 Read why? → | 🥈 2ND Lizzana 13:15 Newmarket · 7/1 Verify | Gameball 15:25 Listowel · 5/1 6TH WATCH Verify | 🥈 2ND Anyasi 16:18 Haydock · 5/1 WATCH Verify | 🥈 2ND Gaelic Des Chastys 16:30 Listowel · 13/2 BET Verify | 🥈 2ND Saint Acclaim 17:30 Dundalk (AW) · 13/2 Verify |
| Thu 24 Sep 2026 1W Read why? → | Rokanako 14:32 Listowel · 13/2 5TH BET Verify | 🥇 WON Fuel The Jet 15:00 Newmarket · 13/2 SP 13/2 BET Verify | First Ascent 16:17 Listowel · 6/1 12TH BET Verify | 🥉 3RD Sunday River 19:00 Southwell (AW) · 8/1 BET Verify | Bearwith 20:30 Southwell (AW) · 5/1 5TH BET Verify |
| Wed 23 Sep 2026 Read why? → | Dolly Dior 14:47 Perth · 17/2 outside Verify | 🥈 2ND Granlahan 15:05 Listowel · 15/2 BET Verify | Etalon 15:57 Perth · 6/1 5TH Verify | Mister Bluebird 17:00 Goodwood · 10/1 11TH BET Verify | Dontspoilasale 18:30 Kempton (AW) · 5/1 11TH BET Verify |
| Tue 22 Sep 2026 1W Read why? → | Blackwater Lilly 16:15 Warwick · 11/2 5TH BET Verify | 🥈 2ND My Boy 16:20 Southwell (AW) · 6/1 Verify | 🥉 3RD Eddie G 16:41 Listowel · 15/2 BET Verify | Politely 16:55 Southwell (AW) · 11/2 5TH BET Verify | 🥇 WON Town Queen 18:30 Southwell (AW) · 15/2 SP 5/1 BET Verify |
| Mon 21 Sep 2026 Read why? → | 🥉 3RD Agitator 13:59 Leicester · 17/2 BET Verify | Rocsane 14:31 Leicester · 13/2 7TH BET Verify | Gilded Call 14:38 Ffos Las · 7/1 4TH Verify | Home Hero 16:47 Leicester · 5/1 7TH BET Verify | Faster Bee 18:12 Wolverhampton (AW) · 8/1 8TH BET Verify |
| Sun 20 Sep 2026 1W Read why? → | Fantasy Force 14:30 Hamilton · 13/2 7TH BET Verify | Radiator Springs 15:18 Listowel · 5/1 4TH Verify | 🥈 2ND Gower Prince 16:08 Plumpton · 9/1 Verify | 🥇 WON Bradbury 16:30 Hamilton · 12/1 SP 12/1 Verify | Where's My Jet 16:48 Listowel · 11/2 4TH Verify |
| Sat 19 Sep 2026 Read why? → | Deep Havana 14:30 Ayr · 13/2 12TH BET Verify | Capall Rasa 14:47 Newbury · 11/2 9TH WATCH Verify | Far Above Dream 15:40 Ayr · 5/1 11TH WATCH Verify | Dwindling Funds 16:50 Ayr · 11/2 4TH Verify | Vidmiyr 16:52 Chester · 11/2 6TH WATCH Verify |
| Fri 18 Sep 2026 1W Read why? → | 🥉 3RD Little Lady Rock 14:37 Newton Abbot · 15/2 Verify | French Affair 15:40 Ayr · 10/1 5TH BET Verify | 🥇 WON Bintknight 16:40 Newbury · 5/1 SP 11/2 BET Verify | Beat The Devil 19:00 Dundalk (AW) · 5/1 9TH WATCH Verify | Daonethatgotaway 19:30 Dundalk (AW) · 15/2 10TH BET Verify |
| Thu 17 Sep 2026 Read why? → | Cracking Idea 14:45 Yarmouth · 11/2 8TH Verify | 🥉 3RD Mirzimaan 15:15 Yarmouth · 11/2 BET Verify | 🥉 3RD Wecouldavehaditall 16:25 Naas · 6/1 BET Verify | Noble Guest 16:45 Yarmouth · 6/1 9TH BET Verify | 🥈 2ND Rogue Supremacy 19:00 Southwell (AW) · 5/1 BET Verify |
| Wed 16 Sep 2026 1W Read why? → | 🥉 3RD Estrallita 16:00 Clonmel · 7/1 Verify | 🥉 3RD Kimeko Glory 16:05 Sandown · 7/1 Verify | 🥇 WON Asset 16:40 Sandown · 8/1 SP 4/1 Verify | Starlyte 17:25 Kelso · 5/1 4TH BET Verify | War Rooms 18:43 Clonmel · 13/2 outside BET Verify |
| Tue 15 Sep 2026 2W Read why? → | 🥇 WON The Good Wife 13:40 Punchestown · 13/2 SP 2/1 Verify | Cinnodin 14:00 Uttoxeter · 10/1 4TH Verify | 🥉 3RD Glance of Glory 15:30 Uttoxeter · 5/1 WATCH Verify | A Definite Getaway 16:00 Uttoxeter · 5/1 7TH BET Verify | 🥇 WON Gaelic Rambler 17:05 Uttoxeter · 5/1 SP 100/30 BET Verify |
| Mon 14 Sep 2026 Read why? → | 🥉 3RD Newfangled 13:42 Windsor · 5/1 BET Verify | Duchess Of Immatin 14:12 Windsor · 6/1 4TH Verify | Mia Sunshine 14:30 Sedgefield · 17/2 4TH Verify | 🥈 2ND Marquetry 15:12 Windsor · 22/1 Verify | Kingdom Of Heaven 18:30 Kempton (AW) · 200/1 8TH Verify |
| Sun 13 Sep 2026 1W Read why? → | 🥇 WON Ancient State 13:25 Doncaster · 15/2 SP 9/2F BET Verify | Winged Messenger 16:15 Doncaster · 11/2 10TH BET Verify | Sacred Rhythm 16:25 Bath · 13/2 5TH Verify | 🥈 2ND Dandy Magic 17:20 Doncaster · 6/1 BET Verify | High Degree 17:45 Curragh · 11/2 8TH WATCH Verify |
| Sat 12 Sep 2026 Read why? → | Collecting Coin 14:10 Leopardstown · 13/2 5TH BET Verify | 🥈 2ND Twilight Calls 14:20 Doncaster · 5/1 WATCH Verify | Star Cast 15:50 Chester · 6/1 4TH BET Verify | Spartan Arrow 16:00 Lingfield (AW) · 5/1 7TH BET Verify | Vixey 16:30 Chester · 11/2 4TH BET Verify |
| Fri 11 Sep 2026 Read why? → | 🥉 3RD Caragio 13:50 Doncaster · 5/1 BET Verify | 🥉 3RD Adalida 14:36 Sandown · 7/1 BET Verify | Golden Muse 15:35 Doncaster · 12/1 6TH Verify | Mastertown Miss 15:59 Ballinrobe · 13/2 4TH Verify | Everyoneknowsadave 17:20 Doncaster · 6/1 8TH BET Verify |
| Thu 10 Sep 2026 2W Read why? → | Wannabe Sporty 14:45 Worcester · 8/1 7TH BET Verify | Arbaawy 16:52 Epsom · 11/2 6TH WATCH Verify | 🥇 WON Majestic Wave 16:58 Lingfield (AW) · 13/2 SP 4/1 BET Verify | Itica 17:20 Doncaster · 5/1 7TH BET Verify | 🥇 WON Hygge 19:20 Laytown · 7/1 SP 17/2 BET Verify |
| Wed 09 Sep 2026 Read why? → | 🥈 2ND Ridgemaster 16:24 Redcar · 5/1 WATCH Verify | Alkumatic Jo Jo 17:00 Kempton (AW) · 13/2 6TH BET Verify | Runninsonofagun 17:17 Carlisle · 11/2 10TH BET Verify | 🥈 2ND River Trieux 18:45 Cork · 5/1 Verify | Cosmic Girl 19:00 Kempton (AW) · 12/1 5TH BET Verify |
| Tue 08 Sep 2026 1W Read why? → | 🥇 WON Manxman 15:50 Goodwood · 5/6 SP 8/11F Verify | 🥈 2ND Krak 17:12 Bangor-on-Dee · 15/8 Verify | Lunar Orbit 18:12 Bangor-on-Dee · 7/4 outside Verify | Playful Fox 18:42 Bangor-on-Dee · 7/2 5TH Verify | Camino Rocio 19:12 Bangor-on-Dee · 4/1 4TH Verify |
| Mon 07 Sep 2026 1W Read why? → | 🥉 3RD Saint Polo 15:00 Newton Abbot · 11/8 Verify | 🥉 3RD Jager Time 15:30 Newton Abbot · 9/4 Verify | 🥉 3RD Arctic Voyage 16:00 Newton Abbot · 11/4 Verify | 🥇 WON Maho Bay 16:15 Windsor · 7/2 SP 5/2 Verify | Yamnah 16:45 Windsor · 9/2 4TH Verify |