The Fox's Wire · Sly Man

Horses to Watch — Honest Record

Every daily selection since the ledger opened. Won? Gold. 2nd? Silver. 3rd? Bronze. No hiding.

515
Total picks
125
Winners
292
Placed (top 3)
56.7%
Placed hit-rate

Pricing verdict scoreboard

Shadow classifier — under evaluation. Mirrored from Pick Winner's frozen v1 policy so BET / WATCH / PASS reads identically across both products. BET = market may be soft · WATCH = fair-priced · PASS = priced against us.

  • BET 14.3% strike +2.86% ROI n = 35
  • WATCH 0.0% strike -100.00% ROI n = 9
  • PASS no picks yet

Cohort matrix

Same settled picks as the scoreboard above, sliced by tier (Confirmed = Pick Winner agrees; Radar = story-only backfill) and by pricing verdict (BET / WATCH / PASS). A/E is actual wins ÷ expected wins from market-implied probability — above 1.00 is beating the market on that cohort. Rows with fewer than 20 picks are dimmed: small sample, treat with care.

Cohort n Win % Place % Avg odds A/E ROI %
All 44 11.4% 36.4% 7.14 0.79 -18.18%
Confirmed 44 11.4% 36.4% 7.14 0.79 -18.18%
Radar 0 — — — — —
BET 35 14.3% 37.1% 7.37 1.02 +2.86%
WATCH 9 0.0% 33.3% 6.22 — -100.00%
PASS 0 — — — — —
Confirmed × BET 35 14.3% 37.1% 7.37 1.02 +2.86%
Radar × BET 0 — — — — —

Watch Confirmed × BET especially. If it materially outperforms every other cohort over the next 100–200 selections, the compound-signal thesis will have earned its keep. Until then this is data collection, not evidence.

Date Pick 1 Pick 2 Pick 3 Pick 4 Pick 5
Mon 21 Sep 2026 Read why? → 🥉 3RD Agitator 13:59 Leicester · 17/2 BET Verify Rocsane 14:31 Leicester · 13/2 7TH BET Verify Gilded Call 14:38 Ffos Las · 7/1 4TH Verify Home Hero 16:47 Leicester · 5/1 7TH BET Verify Faster Bee 18:12 Wolverhampton (AW) · 8/1 8TH BET Verify
Sun 20 Sep 2026 1W Read why? → Fantasy Force 14:30 Hamilton · 13/2 7TH BET Verify Radiator Springs 15:18 Listowel · 5/1 4TH Verify 🥈 2ND Gower Prince 16:08 Plumpton · 9/1 Verify 🥇 WON Bradbury 16:30 Hamilton · 12/1 SP 12/1 Verify Where's My Jet 16:48 Listowel · 11/2 4TH Verify
Sat 19 Sep 2026 Read why? → Deep Havana 14:30 Ayr · 13/2 12TH BET Verify Capall Rasa 14:47 Newbury · 11/2 9TH WATCH Verify Far Above Dream 15:40 Ayr · 5/1 11TH WATCH Verify Dwindling Funds 16:50 Ayr · 11/2 4TH Verify Vidmiyr 16:52 Chester · 11/2 6TH WATCH Verify
Fri 18 Sep 2026 1W Read why? → 🥉 3RD Little Lady Rock 14:37 Newton Abbot · 15/2 Verify French Affair 15:40 Ayr · 10/1 5TH BET Verify 🥇 WON Bintknight 16:40 Newbury · 5/1 SP 11/2 BET Verify Beat The Devil 19:00 Dundalk (AW) · 5/1 9TH WATCH Verify Daonethatgotaway 19:30 Dundalk (AW) · 15/2 10TH BET Verify
Thu 17 Sep 2026 Read why? → Cracking Idea 14:45 Yarmouth · 11/2 8TH Verify 🥉 3RD Mirzimaan 15:15 Yarmouth · 11/2 BET Verify 🥉 3RD Wecouldavehaditall 16:25 Naas · 6/1 BET Verify Noble Guest 16:45 Yarmouth · 6/1 9TH BET Verify 🥈 2ND Rogue Supremacy 19:00 Southwell (AW) · 5/1 BET Verify
Wed 16 Sep 2026 1W Read why? → 🥉 3RD Estrallita 16:00 Clonmel · 7/1 Verify 🥉 3RD Kimeko Glory 16:05 Sandown · 7/1 Verify 🥇 WON Asset 16:40 Sandown · 8/1 SP 4/1 Verify Starlyte 17:25 Kelso · 5/1 4TH BET Verify War Rooms 18:43 Clonmel · 13/2 outside BET Verify
Tue 15 Sep 2026 2W Read why? → 🥇 WON The Good Wife 13:40 Punchestown · 13/2 SP 2/1 Verify Cinnodin 14:00 Uttoxeter · 10/1 4TH Verify 🥉 3RD Glance of Glory 15:30 Uttoxeter · 5/1 WATCH Verify A Definite Getaway 16:00 Uttoxeter · 5/1 7TH BET Verify 🥇 WON Gaelic Rambler 17:05 Uttoxeter · 5/1 SP 100/30 BET Verify
Mon 14 Sep 2026 Read why? → 🥉 3RD Newfangled 13:42 Windsor · 5/1 BET Verify Duchess Of Immatin 14:12 Windsor · 6/1 4TH Verify Mia Sunshine 14:30 Sedgefield · 17/2 4TH Verify 🥈 2ND Marquetry 15:12 Windsor · 22/1 Verify Kingdom Of Heaven 18:30 Kempton (AW) · 200/1 8TH Verify
Sun 13 Sep 2026 1W Read why? → 🥇 WON Ancient State 13:25 Doncaster · 15/2 SP 9/2F BET Verify Winged Messenger 16:15 Doncaster · 11/2 10TH BET Verify Sacred Rhythm 16:25 Bath · 13/2 5TH Verify 🥈 2ND Dandy Magic 17:20 Doncaster · 6/1 BET Verify High Degree 17:45 Curragh · 11/2 8TH WATCH Verify
Sat 12 Sep 2026 Read why? → Collecting Coin 14:10 Leopardstown · 13/2 5TH BET Verify 🥈 2ND Twilight Calls 14:20 Doncaster · 5/1 WATCH Verify Star Cast 15:50 Chester · 6/1 4TH BET Verify Spartan Arrow 16:00 Lingfield (AW) · 5/1 7TH BET Verify Vixey 16:30 Chester · 11/2 4TH BET Verify
Fri 11 Sep 2026 Read why? → 🥉 3RD Caragio 13:50 Doncaster · 5/1 BET Verify 🥉 3RD Adalida 14:36 Sandown · 7/1 BET Verify Golden Muse 15:35 Doncaster · 12/1 6TH Verify Mastertown Miss 15:59 Ballinrobe · 13/2 4TH Verify Everyoneknowsadave 17:20 Doncaster · 6/1 8TH BET Verify
Thu 10 Sep 2026 2W Read why? → Wannabe Sporty 14:45 Worcester · 8/1 7TH BET Verify Arbaawy 16:52 Epsom · 11/2 6TH WATCH Verify 🥇 WON Majestic Wave 16:58 Lingfield (AW) · 13/2 SP 4/1 BET Verify Itica 17:20 Doncaster · 5/1 7TH BET Verify 🥇 WON Hygge 19:20 Laytown · 7/1 SP 17/2 BET Verify
Wed 09 Sep 2026 Read why? → 🥈 2ND Ridgemaster 16:24 Redcar · 5/1 WATCH Verify Alkumatic Jo Jo 17:00 Kempton (AW) · 13/2 6TH BET Verify Runninsonofagun 17:17 Carlisle · 11/2 10TH BET Verify 🥈 2ND River Trieux 18:45 Cork · 5/1 Verify Cosmic Girl 19:00 Kempton (AW) · 12/1 5TH BET Verify
Tue 08 Sep 2026 1W Read why? → 🥇 WON Manxman 15:50 Goodwood · 5/6 SP 8/11F Verify 🥈 2ND Krak 17:12 Bangor-on-Dee · 15/8 Verify Lunar Orbit 18:12 Bangor-on-Dee · 7/4 outside Verify Playful Fox 18:42 Bangor-on-Dee · 7/2 5TH Verify Camino Rocio 19:12 Bangor-on-Dee · 4/1 4TH Verify
Mon 07 Sep 2026 1W Read why? → 🥉 3RD Saint Polo 15:00 Newton Abbot · 11/8 Verify 🥉 3RD Jager Time 15:30 Newton Abbot · 9/4 Verify 🥉 3RD Arctic Voyage 16:00 Newton Abbot · 11/4 Verify 🥇 WON Maho Bay 16:15 Windsor · 7/2 SP 5/2 Verify Yamnah 16:45 Windsor · 9/2 4TH Verify
Sun 06 Sep 2026 2W Read why? → County Champs 14:20 Fontwell · 3/1 outside Verify 🥈 2ND High Fibre 14:40 York · 9/4 Verify 🥇 WON Extremely Zain 15:50 York · 5/1 SP 9/2 Verify Ask A Sainte 16:05 Fontwell · 9/4 4TH Verify 🥇 WON Midnight Jewel 16:40 Fontwell · 5/4 SP 4/7F Verify
Sat 05 Sep 2026 Read why? → Colori Forever 13:25 Haydock · 14/1 5TH Verify 🥈 2ND Victory Ace 14:20 Kempton (AW) · 11/2 Verify Seren Star 16:00 Ascot · 6/1 8TH Verify Captain Cool 17:45 Stratford · 11/4 outside Verify Notnowlinda 18:15 Stratford · 5/1 5TH Verify
Fri 04 Sep 2026 2W Read why? → 🥇 WON Hoe Joly Smoke 13:40 Bangor-on-Dee · 4/6 SP 13/8 Verify 🥇 WON Delgany Second Now 14:15 Bangor-on-Dee · 4/11 SP 4/9F Verify 🥈 2ND Thickthorn Tom 14:50 Bangor-on-Dee · 13/8 Verify I Heard A Rumour 16:00 Bangor-on-Dee · 2/1 outside Verify Fallacious Promise 18:54 Kempton (AW) · 9/2 6TH Verify
Thu 03 Sep 2026 1W Read why? → Playfull Warrior 15:52 Haydock · 17/2 5TH Verify 🥇 WON Mussab 15:59 Newcastle (AW) · 2/5 SP 1/4F Verify 🥉 3RD Chapter 17:55 Salisbury · 17/2 Verify 🥈 2ND Korbut 19:40 Southwell (AW) · 5/2 Verify 🥈 2ND Kirkdale 20:10 Southwell (AW) · 13/2 Verify
Wed 02 Sep 2026 2W Read why? → 🥇 WON Perseus Way 17:50 Hamilton · 9/4 SP 2/1 Verify Harley 18:20 Hamilton · 5/2 4TH Verify 🥇 WON Fortitudine 19:00 Kempton (AW) · 1/4 SP 1/4F Verify Fairylike 19:40 Navan · 9/4 15TH Verify 🥈 2ND Madjid 20:30 Kempton (AW) · 1/2 Verify
Tue 01 Sep 2026 1W Read why? → 🥈 2ND Snowing 14:00 Gowran Park · 5/1 Verify His Finest Hour 14:10 Ripon · 7/4 5TH Verify The Captains Day 14:30 Gowran Park · 4/1 7TH Verify Media Legend 17:45 Wolverhampton (AW) · 5/4 4TH Verify 🥇 WON Booziebrunch 18:20 Wolverhampton (AW) · 2/1 SP 7/4F Verify
Mon 31 Aug 2026 1W Read why? → 🥈 2ND Rogue Jewel 15:05 Ripon · 3/1 Verify 🥇 WON Divilabother 15:45 Cartmel · 10/3 SP 4/1 Verify Perfect Scoundrel 16:05 Epsom · 4/1 4TH Verify 🥈 2ND Caughtinyourtrance 16:19 Cartmel · 11/4 Verify 🥉 3RD French Affair 17:15 Epsom · 5/4 Verify
Sun 30 Aug 2026 1W Read why? → Fluorescence 14:15 Beverley · 5/1 outside Verify 🥇 WON Flash Harry 14:35 Goodwood · 5/2 SP 15/8F Verify Prevalence 15:30 Cork · 14/1 12TH Verify 🥈 2ND Gloryous 15:45 Goodwood · 11/8 Verify Senor Cortez 16:20 Goodwood · 5/1 4TH Verify
Sat 29 Aug 2026 2W Read why? → So Lovely 13:53 Curragh · 11/8 6TH Verify 🥇 WON Gambino 14:40 Cartmel · 3/10 SP 30/100F Verify So Regal 14:50 Sandown · 13/2 5TH Verify Under The Twilight 17:00 Windsor · 11/4 8TH Verify 🥇 WON Rosario 17:10 Sandown · 5/2 SP 6/5F Verify
Fri 28 Aug 2026 2W Read why? → Thursday Girl 16:10 Sandown · 10/3 6TH Verify 🥇 WON Delgany Second Now 17:15 Fontwell · 6/4 SP 9/4 Verify 🥉 3RD Glenna 17:45 Goodwood · 11/2 Verify 🥇 WON Saint Polo 18:05 Sedgefield · 5/2 SP 3/1 Verify 🥈 2ND She Is For Me Boys 19:00 Fontwell · 7/2 Verify
Thu 27 Aug 2026 2W Read why? → Town Queen 15:30 Carlisle · 5/2 7TH Verify Gore Point 18:12 Newton Abbot · 5/4 4TH Verify 🥇 WON My Girl Katie 18:42 Newton Abbot · 6/4 SP 15/8F Verify Master Richard 19:00 Southwell (AW) · 9/1 9TH Verify 🥇 WON Thickthorn Tom 19:12 Newton Abbot · 7/4 SP 5/4F Verify
Wed 26 Aug 2026 2W Read why? → 🥇 WON Boilermaker 15:30 Wolverhampton (AW) · 11/10 SP 1/1F Verify 🥈 2ND Bidsta 17:55 Newbury · 9/4 Verify 🥇 WON Kaindy 18:51 Kempton (AW) · 2/7 SP 2/9F Verify 🥉 3RD Bold Shout 19:00 Newbury · 13/8 Verify 🥉 3RD Wezzeer 20:21 Kempton (AW) · 11/4 Verify
Tue 25 Aug 2026 Read why? → 🥈 2ND Havana Touch 14:30 Lingfield (AW) · 4/1 Verify 🥉 3RD Amber Hamur 15:15 Musselburgh · evn Verify Mosel 16:20 Bellewstown · 9/2 outside Verify Beorma 18:15 Stratford · 1/2 outside Verify Prairie Girl 19:02 Bellewstown · 4/1 pending Verify
Mon 24 Aug 2026 3W Read why? → 🥇 WON Two Commanders 15:45 Musselburgh · 10/3 SP 3/1 Verify 🥇 WON Nakila Sun 17:48 Windsor · 13/8 SP 13/8 Verify 🥇 WON Cape Fear 18:18 Windsor · 15/8 SP 2/1F Verify 🥈 2ND Joshua Chamberlain 18:30 Ballinrobe · 14/1 Verify 🥈 2ND Buckland Belle 18:48 Windsor · 11/10 Verify
Sun 23 Aug 2026 Read why? → Camino Rocio 14:08 Worcester · 10/3 outside Verify At The Oche 14:38 Worcester · 5/4 outside Verify Crown Of India 16:08 Worcester · 11/2 6TH Verify Dream Diamond 16:38 Worcester · 7/2 6TH Verify Guardian Of Realm 17:30 Naas · 15/2 7TH Verify