Fontwell 14:30 10 Jun 2026
Class 4 10 Jun 2026

Today Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Mares' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)

Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Mares' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m3f29y

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Voting open
  • 6 declared
  • 0 picked
AI rates Viscountess Nelson Medium Saturday Draw Join free to vote Updated 2 hours, 29 minutes ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Viscountess Nelson silks
Viscountess Nelson
Age 6 · 11-9
1/421-
92
113
6
11-9
10/11 FCST 5/6
Won Irish maiden point in April last year; stepped up from her hurdles debut to open her account in this sphere at Perth (2m4f, good) in April; carries a 7lb penalty but is the one to beat.
AI verdict

SR 92 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Elated silks
Elated
Age 5 · 11-2
533-3
99
90
112
5
11-2
4/1
Promising efforts when finishing third in her two runs over hurdles, over 2m at Chepstow and Warwick; looks sure to be suited by this step up in trip and shouldn't be far away.
AI verdict

SR 90 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Maria Mes silks
Maria Mes
Age 4 · 11-2
50-
89
4
11-2
40/1 33/1 40/1
Well beaten in her two runs in bumpers; steps up in trip on her hurdles debut but probably best watched until she shows more.
AI verdict

SR 89 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Evening Tess silks
Evening Tess
Age 4 · 10-10
56-22
99
88
109
4
10-10
5/2 9/4 5/2
Showing steady improvement with each run, latest when runner-up on her handicap debut at Newton Abbot (2m2f, good) four weeks ago; looks sure to be suited by this step up in trip and holds claims.
AI verdict

SR 88 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Frenati silks
Frenati
Age 4 · 10-10
812-F
93
4
10-10
17/2 7/1 17/2
Landed bumper at Stratford (2m, soft) in March; fell at the first flight on her hurdles debut at Newton Abbot (2m1f, good; 4-1) two weeks ago; steps up in trip and should run well provided that fall hasn't left a mark.
AI verdict

SR 93 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
My Lady d'Ex silks
My Lady d'Ex
Age 4 · 10-10
9-7
93
4
10-10
80/1
Beaten 19l and 33l in her two bumpers; steps up in trip on her hurdles debut and needs to show significant improvement.
AI verdict

SR 93 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Viscountess Nelson 10/11 10/11 10/11 10/11 5/6 10/11 Bet365
2 Elated 4/1 open 5.50 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 Bet365
3 Maria Mes 40/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 41.00 50/1 open 41.00 50/1 open 41.00 50/1 open 41.00 50/1 Coral
4 Evening Tess 5/2 5/2 open 3.25 5/2 open 3.25 5/2 open 3.25 5/2 open 3.25 5/2 Bet365
5 Frenati 17/2 open 8.50 9/1 open 8.00 9/1 open 8.00 10/1 open 8.00 9/1 open 8.00 10/1 William Hill
6 My Lady d'Ex 80/1 100/1 open 81.00 100/1 open 81.00 100/1 open 81.00 100/1 open 81.00 100/1 Coral

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Evening Tess

Speculative

Evening Tess owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (49) and market confidence (88). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

5/2 Dan Skelton Harry Skelton
67% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Frenati

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

17/2 · Anthony Honeyball
✓ Value Signal

Maria Mes

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

40/1 · Jamie Snowden
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

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Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
49 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +18.6 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
88 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +19.5 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
43 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.6 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
40 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.0 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
56 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.6 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
58 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.6 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 4. Evening Tess
57.3 5/2
2 5. Frenati
56.3 17/2
3 1. Viscountess Nelson
55.9 10/11
4 2. Elated
53.7 4/1
5 3. Maria Mes
46.1 40/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Viscountess Nelson
Medium

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

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The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

1
Age 6 · 11-9
10/11
★★☆☆☆ SR 92 🐾

SR 92 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 4 · 10-10
5/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 88 🐾

SR 88 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Age 5 · 11-2
4/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 90 🐾

SR 90 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Age 4 · 10-10
17/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 93 🐾

SR 93 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Viscountess Nelson
Confidence: Medium

Viscountess Nelson (SR 92, 10/11) carries top-weight at 11-9 but commands strong market confidence as the Nicky Henderson-trained favourite, and her form string of 1/421- shows she has won over hurdles previously. Despite a blank last run, Henderson runners returning from a break in mares' novice company at this level frequently improve, and the SR of 92 — nominally the highest in the field — combined with the market's decisive support at near-evens points to an expected dominant performance. Evening Tess (SR 88, 5/2) is the key market rival but carries only 10-10 and her 56-22 form line shows consistent placed efforts rather than a win, making Viscountess Nelson the more credible winning proposition at this class. The weight differential of 13lb over Evening Tess is notable on good ground but the SR gap is narrow, so market confidence is the decisive tiebreaker here. Each-way alternative: Evening Tess. Main danger: Evening Tess — Evening Tess (SR 88, 5/2) has run four times over hurdles with two recent placed efforts (22 at the end of her form string), carries a lighter burden of 10-10 versus Viscountess Nelson's 11-9, and Dan Skelton has her primed to go one better at this class on good ground.

Shortlist Viscountess Nelson, Evening Tess, Elated
Each-way: Evening Tess Danger: Evening Tess

🗺 The Course Class 4

2m3f29y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
6 Confirmed runners
Fontwell Track and setting
Class 4 Race grade