All three of his wins have been on the AW, the most recent at Kempton (1m) in March off 4lb lower; never a threat when sixth at Windsor (1m, good to firm) 16 days ago and he was well beaten on soft ground last year.
Form last 6441006
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
72SR96RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 72 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Won a maiden at Southwell (7f, AW) and two 1m handicaps at Lingfield (AW) last year when trained by the Crisfords; drops in grade having failed to beat a rival home on her stable debut at Ascot (1m, good) 32 days ago and has a bit to prove on turf.
Form last 69113-9
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
79SR95RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 79 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Won twice as a 3yo, including a handicap at Goodwood (1m, good) last May; placed on his first two starts this year (1m/1m2f) but below his best when held in fourth at Haydock (1m2f, good to firm) 46 days ago; drops back in trip with blinkers now tried.
Form last 643-234
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
72SR98RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 72 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Made a promising debut here on good ground in October and built on that when winning comfortably at Wolverhampton (9.5f, AW) next time; disappointing at Chelmsford (1m2f, AW) 196 days ago, weakening late after racing freely, but she may settle better over this shorter trip; interesting on her handicap debut.
Form last 6214-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
75SR98RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 75 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Made it 3-4 on the AW when winning at Newcastle (1m, AW) in March but below that level in two starts on turf since, including when last of his group of five at Newmarket (1m; first-time cheekpieces) 39 days ago; cheekpieces discarded.
Form last 6-36108
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
73SR96RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 73 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Disappointing on reappearance at Newmarket (1m, good; reported to have stopped quickly) 57 days ago and both wins came over 1m2f on good to firm in 2024 (one here); however, he did post some good efforts last season (including on soft) and may be able to put his comeback run well behind him.
Form last 64823-0
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
72SR97RPR84OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 72 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Heavy-ground winner over 1m2f at Saint-Cloud in November 2024 but tailed off in a 1m4f handicap there on his final start for Andre Fabre 87 days ago; has since been purchased for 12,000gns and drops to 1m with a hood applied on his stable debut; watch the market.
Form last 61/45-0
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
68SR94RPR84OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 68 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Can race freely, just as he did when making all at Haydock (7f, good) last summer; didn't get away with it at Sandown (7f, good) 307 days ago and he's since been gelded; tongue-tie is removed and he needs to settling better now stepping back up in trip on his reappearance.
Form last 6/5414-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
73SR95RPR81OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 73 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Record of 4232 in novice/maiden events and ran well when second of 12 on her handicap debut at Newcastle (1m2f, AW) in October; however, she failed to beat a rival home at Thirsk (1m) on her reappearance and needs to take a big step forward from that effort.
Form last 6/322-0
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
73SR97RPR80OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 73 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.
All three wins on turf have been on the Newmarket July course (7f/1m) but he has been placed in two of his three starts over this C&D, including on soft; never featured on his reappearance 25 days ago and needs to build on that.
Form last 63830-0
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
72SR100RPR79OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 72 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .
Won three times here last year (good to soft/good to firm), the most recent coming over C&D off a 10lb lower mark than today's; eighth in both starts since returning from a 182-day break and better is needed.
Form last 6228-88
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
73SR100RPR75OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 73 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Sprightly Dance owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (42) and market confidence (91). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
2/1Roger VarianJack Mitchell
78%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Carron
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
17/2 · George Boughey✓ Value Signal
Where's Freddy
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
18/1 · Stuart Williams◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Sprightly Dance (SR 75, 2/1) carries the joint-highest weight of 9-9 but is the only 3-year-old in the field, and at this trip on Good to Soft the age allowance is a genuine asset — effectively racing off a lighter comparative burden. The form string 214- shows a win and a runner-up at this level, the most consistent recent sequence in the field, and Roger Varian's yard consistently places 3-year-olds accurately in mile-plus handicaps. Market confidence is strong at 2/1 with no obvious drift, suggesting stable confidence. No horse in the field carries an SR meaningfully above 79, making this a compressed field where Varian's professionalism and the horse's upward form trajectory are the clearest edges.
Each-way alternative: Padua.
Main danger: Cavolo Nero — Cavolo Nero (SR 72, 4/1) has a consistent 43-234 form string showing progressive placing at this level for James Ferguson, and the market has him as the clear second-favourite, suggesting stable confidence he handles Good to Soft ground over this trip.