11 May 2026

Monday 11 May Athlone Handicap (Div II)

Athlone Handicap (Div II) · 7f111y

1348-Hr decs

Every runner. Every signal. One decision.

Official Result

Athlone Handicap (Div II)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Substance (IRE) Dylan Browne McMonagle · Joseph Patrick O'Brien
    5/2F
  2. 14/1
  3. 6/1
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Big race Sat 23 May William Hill Temple Stakes (Group 2) Haydock · 15:30

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14:42–17:47 · 7 races

Killarney

16:35–20:07 · 8 races

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16:53–20:23 · 8 races

Windsor

17:12–20:17 · 7 races

Wolverhampton (AW)

18:30–21:00 · 6 races

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Race Explorer BETA
Settled
  • 13 declared
  • 0 picked
Updated 1 week, 3 days ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Running Point
Age 3 · 10-0
5236-
Ronan Whelan
Jarlath P Fahey
58
69
3
10-0
11/1
Promise in three turf maidens last year at 6.5f-7f on good and yielding ground; tongue tie goes on for seasonal return and handicap debut; market can guide.

SR 58 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Espritroyale
Age 3 · 9-12
90-5
Gary Carroll
Gavin Cromwell
49
59
3
9-12
9/1
No show in two maidens for Sheila Lavery last year; improved effort in 6f Curragh maiden (sft-hvy) on debut for this yard in March; worth a market check on handicap debut.

SR 49 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 9/1.

3
Love Orchid
Age 3 · 9-12
864-5
Colin Keane
Noel Meade
52
65
3
9-12
11/1
Minor promise in maidens last year; beaten 9l on handicap debut and seasonal return at Cork (1m, sft-hvy) last month; sharper now and better ground here could suit.

SR 52 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Clonbun
Age 3 · 9-10
7071
Patrick McGettigan(5)
J P Murtagh
71
73
3
9-10
6/1
Modest form in maidens on AW and heavy ground at 7f-1m; off the mark in first time blinkers (retained) in 1m Gowran claimer last month; different ground now but not dismissed on handicap debut with rider taking off 5lb.

SR 71 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Lumiere Des Etoile
Age 3 · 9-9
6045-
Wayne Lordan
Miss Natalia Lupini
50
65
3
9-9
14/1
Not beaten that far on handicap debut when last seen at Dundalk (7f) in December; hood goes on for seasonal reappearance; could go well upped in trip; market check advised.

SR 50 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.

7
Elly Bay
Age 3 · 9-7
3949-6
Rory Mulligan(5)
Jack W Davison
65
76
3
9-7
10/1
Solid placed efforts in maidens; first two runs in handicaps not great but should strip fitter for her comeback at Bellewstown (1m, soft) and better ground a plus here; hood discarded.

SR 65 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Sunrise Angel
Age 3 · 9-7
0324-8
Andrew Slattery
Andrew Slattery
68
72
3
9-7
8/1
Narrowly denied on handicap debut at the Curragh last September (7f, yld-sft); again ran well when a 1l fourth at Dundalk in October; floundered on heavy ground on seasonal return at Cork; better expected now.

SR 68 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
One Cool Bear
Age 3 · 9-6
60-244
Adam Caffrey
Adrian McGuinness
73
77
3
9-6
13/2
Knocking on the door in three runs this year; runner up and fourth at Dundalk and then fourth in first time visor (retained) on return to turf at Naas (6f, good); stamina to prove upped in trip.

SR 73 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Substance silks
Substance
Age 3 · 9-0
06-41
78
63
95
3
9-0
3/1

SR 63 suggests ability but 3/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Alandownunder
Age 3 · 9-5
989-
Declan McDonogh
Kieran P Cotter
41
64
3
9-5
22/1
Moderate form in maidens at 6f-7f last autumn on easy ground; dam won over 1m on good ground so these conditions might suit on handicap debut; market check advised.

SR 41 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.

11
Fortuity
Age 3 · 9-5
799-0
Shane Foley
Mrs John Harrington
54
68
3
9-5
14/1
Didn't show much in maidens at 6f-7f on good and yielding ground; cheekpieces (retained) and drop to 5f didn't spark improvement on handicap debut at Naas; still early days and steps up in trip now.

SR 54 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.

12
Gimme Energy
Age 3 · 9-2
80-0
Nathan Crosse
John S O'Donoghue
59
79
3
9-2
20/1
Handicap debutante; didn't cut much ice in maidens at 6f-1m; best watched unless the market speaks.

SR 59 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

13
He's Holding Court
Age 3 · 8-7
008076
Jamie Powell
Andrew Slattery
59
66
3
8-7
14/1
Didn't run too badly against older rivals at Cork last month but was beaten 5.75l when sixth against her own age group at Gowran (1m, gd-yld) latest; same mark here; others preferred.

SR 59 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.

No bookmaker prices recorded yet for this race. Prices land after the first odds sync.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Substance

Speculative

Substance owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (35) and market confidence (86). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

3/1 Joseph Patrick O'Brien Dylan Browne McMonagle
70% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

One Cool Bear

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

13/2 · Adrian McGuinness
✓ Value Signal

Alandownunder

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

22/1 · Kieran P Cotter
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
35 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +13.3 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
86 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +19.0 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
33 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
38 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.8 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
53 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.3 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
57 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.5 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 10. Substance
52.0 3/1
2 9. One Cool Bear
49.4 13/2
3 4. Clonbun
48.2 6/1
4 8. Sunrise Angel
45.2 8/1
5 1. Running Point
43.5 11/1
YOUR DECISION

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Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.

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🤖 AI view
One Cool Bear
Medium

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

10
Age 3 · 9-0
3/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 63 🐾

SR 63 suggests ability but 3/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 3 · 9-10
6/1
J: Patrick McGettigan(5)
T: J P Murtagh
★★☆☆☆ SR 71 🐾

SR 71 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Age 3 · 9-6
13/2
J: Adam Caffrey
T: Adrian McGuinness
★★☆☆☆ SR 73 🐾

SR 73 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Age 3 · 9-7
8/1
J: Andrew Slattery
T: Andrew Slattery
★★☆☆☆ SR 68 🐾

SR 68 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Age 3 · 9-12
9/1
J: Gary Carroll
T: Gavin Cromwell
★☆☆☆☆ SR 49 🐾

SR 49 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 9/1.

7
Age 3 · 9-7
10/1
J: Rory Mulligan(5)
T: Jack W Davison
★★☆☆☆ SR 65 🐾

SR 65 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

1
Age 3 · 10-0
11/1
J: Ronan Whelan
T: Jarlath P Fahey
★★☆☆☆ SR 58 🐾

SR 58 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Age 3 · 9-12
11/1
J: Colin Keane
T: Noel Meade
★★☆☆☆ SR 52 🐾

SR 52 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Age 3 · 9-9
14/1
J: Wayne Lordan
T: Miss Natalia Lupini
★☆☆☆☆ SR 50 🐾

SR 50 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.

11
Age 3 · 9-5
14/1
J: Shane Foley
T: Mrs John Harrington
★☆☆☆☆ SR 54 🐾

SR 54 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.

13
Age 3 · 8-7
14/1
J: Jamie Powell
T: Andrew Slattery
★☆☆☆☆ SR 59 🐾

SR 59 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.

12
Age 3 · 9-2
20/1
J: Nathan Crosse
T: John S O'Donoghue
★★☆☆☆ SR 59 🐾

SR 59 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
One Cool Bear
Confidence: Medium

One Cool Bear leads the field with SR 73 and is trading at 13/2. The Saturday Rating places it clear of the field on ability. Weight of 9-6 is manageable for a horse of this class.

Shortlist One Cool Bear, Clonbun, Sunrise Angel, Elly Bay, Substance
Each-way: Clonbun Danger: Sunrise Angel

🗺 The Course Race conditions

7f111y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
13 Confirmed runners
Roscommon Track and setting