11 May 2026

Monday 11 May Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Race (Smullen Series)

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Race (Smullen Series) · 1m2f95y

548-Hr decs

Every runner. Every signal. One decision.

Official Result

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Race (Smullen Series)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Nil Bua Gan Dua (USA) Dylan Browne McMonagle · Joseph Patrick O'Brien
    EvensF
  2. 100/30
  3. 5/1
Race picker

Switch race

Big race Sat 23 May William Hill Temple Stakes (Group 2) Haydock · 15:30

Catterick

14:30–17:00 · 6 races

Southwell

14:42–17:47 · 7 races

Killarney

16:35–20:07 · 8 races

Roscommon

16:53–20:23 · 8 races

Windsor

17:12–20:17 · 7 races

Wolverhampton (AW)

18:30–21:00 · 6 races

Recently viewed

Race Explorer BETA
Settled
  • 5 declared
  • 0 picked
Updated 1 week, 3 days ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Dial Me In
Age 3 · 9-10
14-4
Declan McDonogh
Joseph Patrick O'Brien
97
92
3
9-10
4/1
Debut winner over 7f last year; beaten at odds-on over 1m next time; after long layoff, one-paced fourth in 1m Cork conditions event when tried in a tongue-tie.

SR 97 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Rebel Ascendant
Age 3 · 9-10
1
James Ryan
Jack W Davison
93
89
3
9-10
9/2
Sent off 14s for last month's debut at Gowran, green when winning 9.5f maiden on soft; hard to get a handle on the form yet.

SR 93 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Sir Benji
Age 3 · 9-10
1
Gary Carroll
Gavin Cromwell
98
93
3
9-10
7/2
Sent off 14s for Navan debut over this trip on heavy; was keen and green but won well in the end and form got a couple of boosts lately.

SR 98 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Nil Bua Gan Dua
Age 3 · 9-5
435-3
Dylan Browne McMonagle
Joseph Patrick O'Brien
105
96
3
9-5
6/4
Colt by American Pharoah holds an Irish Derby entry and was highly tried on final two juvenile starts; 40-1 when third of four to current Derby favourite Benvenuto Cellini in 1m Group 2 at Leopardstown (second and fourth currently rated 107); 20s when beaten 5l in Group 3 at same venue; ran nowhere near opening mark of 101 when third in Cork maiden on return; better for the run and, possibly, this longer trip.

SR 105 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Elzaam Express silks
Elzaam Express
Age 3 · 9-7
5
78
30
3
9-7
18/1
Tailed off last of five over C&D last week on debut; can be discounted.

SR 78 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

No bookmaker prices recorded yet for this race. Prices land after the first odds sync.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Nil Bua Gan Dua

Live signal

Nil Bua Gan Dua owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (58) and market confidence (93). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

6/4 Joseph Patrick O'Brien Dylan Browne McMonagle
71% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Sir Benji

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

7/2 · Gavin Cromwell
✓ Value Signal

Elzaam Express

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

18/1 · Gavin Cromwell
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
58 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +22.2 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
93 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +20.5 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
44 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.1 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
40 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.0 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
46 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.6 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Live signal
60 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.8 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 6. Nil Bua Gan Dua
62.3 6/4
2 3. Sir Benji
59.7 7/2
3 2. Rebel Ascendant
55.6 9/2
4 1. Dial Me In
54.6 4/1
5 7. Elzaam Express
39.6 18/1
YOUR DECISION

See your angle before you make your move

Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.

🐾 Your pick
No horse picked yet
Voting open now

Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.

Choose your horse →
🤖 AI view
Nil Bua Gan Dua
Medium

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

6
Age 3 · 9-5
6/4
J: Dylan Browne McMonagle
T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
★★★☆☆ SR 105 🐾

SR 105 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Age 3 · 9-10
7/2
J: Gary Carroll
T: Gavin Cromwell
★★★☆☆ SR 98 🐾

SR 98 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Age 3 · 9-10
4/1
J: Declan McDonogh
T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
★★★☆☆ SR 97 🐾

SR 97 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 3 · 9-10
9/2
J: James Ryan
T: Jack W Davison
★★★☆☆ SR 93 🐾

SR 93 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Age 3 · 9-7
18/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 78 🐾

SR 78 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Nil Bua Gan Dua
Confidence: Medium

Nil Bua Gan Dua leads the field with SR 105 and is trading at 6/4. The Saturday Rating places it clear of the field on ability. Weight of 9-5 is manageable for a horse of this class.

Shortlist Nil Bua Gan Dua, Sir Benji, Dial Me In, Rebel Ascendant, Elzaam Express
Each-way: Sir Benji Danger: Dial Me In

🗺 The Course Race conditions

1m2f95y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
5 Confirmed runners
Roscommon Track and setting