Winless in his last five starts, Warrnambool did post a third five starts back, and his experience over today's trip and going is a clear asset from stall 5 carrying 135 lb — the concern is 228 days off the track.
Form last 638654-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
55SR62RPR54OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 55 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last three starts — seventh most recently, unplaced two starts back, and a fourth three starts back — Lady Of Chivalry faces a stiff ask from stall 10 carrying 135 lb, though going experience offers a slender foothold for a filly ranked 11th of 13 on our figures.
Form last 64-07
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
34SR53RPR54OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 34 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at -.
Roman Secret ran a solid third two starts back and has experience of today's trip and going; back after 28 days, the mare carries 135 lb from stall 14, and her rating of 61 gives her a edge that makes her our pick despite an eighth last time out.
Form last 67-1638
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
43SR61RPR54OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 43 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
Third three starts back and fourth last time out, Little Tiger arrives as the top-rated runner in the field with distance and going experience in his favour — though he remains winless in recent starts, and 63 days off the track is a fitness question he must answer.
Form last 68630-4
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
55SR65RPR54OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 55 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Chico Dulce brings distance and going experience to this, and a win in his last five starts alongside a third last time out makes him a live threat at 134 lb from stall 3; the risk is that three modest efforts in between may blunt confidence.
Form last 615-473
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
60SR61RPR53OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 60 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Shifra won last time out and was second two starts back, giving her a genuine purple patch, though that 54-day absence and a tough 132 lb to carry are the checks on her claims; she has run over today's trip and rates a live each-way player.
Wait — I must not mention betting advice. Let me redo:
Shifra won last time out and was second two starts back, a sharp recent sequence, though 54 days off and 132 lb are the checks;
Form last 609-821
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
58SR56RPR51OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 58 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Arlecchino's Rex has been winless in his last six starts, though a third three starts back and a runner-up finish four starts back show he can get involved; two seventh-place finishes since suggest a loss of form, and 56 days off plus a hefty 130 lb ask will need answering.
Form last 6332377
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
60SR55RPR49OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 60 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last six starts and last seen 64 days ago, Dubai Harbour arrives with fitness to prove; he has run over today's trip and going before, and draws stall two carrying 128 lb, but a lone second place from recent starts offers little encouragement.
Form last 6462857
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
49SR59RPR47OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 49 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Stacey Racey has been beaten in her last two starts but showed better form with a third three starts back, though she's winless in recent starts and her two latest eighths suggest a return to that level is needed; going experience helps, and 21 days off leaves her fit enough.
Form last 6724388
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
28SR54RPR46OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 28 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Winless in her last four starts and ranked last on our figures, Crazy Plan makes this a tough assignment — though she does return from a 28-day break with experience over today's trip and going, and that runner-up finish last time out is at least a crumb of encouragement.
Form last 670-02
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
58SR53RPR54OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 58 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in her last five starts, with finishes no better than fourth in recent starts, Lady Aiyana faces a stiff task from stall nine carrying 126 lb — though she has run over today's trip and going before, and there is a modest gap between her speed rating and official mark.
Form last 646-687
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
34SR53RPR45OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 34 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
Winless in her last six starts, with finishes no better than fourth in recent outings, Summer Evening is hard to fancy here; she has run over today's trip and going before, and 34 days between runs suggests she arrives fresh, but that may be the limit of the encouragement.
Form last 6560498
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
27SR53RPR45OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 27 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.
Winless in her last five starts, Warriors Choice at least has going experience to call on, though 70 days off and a consistent tendency to finish in rear make it hard to see her improving markedly from stall 11 off a mark of 52.
Form last 64588-8
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
33SR56RPR52OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 33 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Arlecchino's Rex owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (33) and market confidence (68). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
7/1Mark UsherCieren Fallon
64%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Shifra
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
7/2 · Pat Phelan✓ Value Signal
Summer Evening
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
40/1 · David Flood◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Arlecchino's Rex (SR 60, 11/2) shares the top SR in the field alongside Chico Dulce but carries just 9-4, giving it a meaningful weight edge over Chico Dulce (9-8) and Shifra (9-6). The standout signal is the market: Mkt:in46% is a massive move that dwarfs any other steamer in this field and strongly suggests informed confidence. Jockey Cieren Fallon (20% career strike rate, 799 runners) is an elite booking for this level and is clearly the sharper ride vs the yard's second string. GoingFit:~ is moderate rather than poor, and while the form string 332377 shows consistency without a win, the class hasn't changed (ClassMv:=) and the +3 mark move is manageable at this level.
Each-way alternative: Chico Dulce.
Main danger: Shifra — Shifra (SR 58, 7/2) is the market leader, comes into this on a recent winning run (form ending -821), and carries only 9-6 with a 20% strike-rate jockey booking in Seamus Cronin, making it the obvious danger despite running off a mark 5lb higher than at last win.
ShortlistArlecchino's Rex, Chico Dulce, Shifra, Crazy Plan