Betfred Derby 'Wild Card' EBF Conditions Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) · 1m0f113y
SR 92 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Favourable weight of 9-3 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 76 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 79 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Favourable weight of 9-3 gives a real edge in this handicap.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sword Salute | 11/1 open 4.50 | 10/1 open 6.50 | 11/1 open 5.00 | 11/1 open 5.00 | 12/1 open 5.00 | 10/1 open 5.00 | 12/1 William Hill |
| 2 Al Wathba | 10/3 open 3.75 | 3/1 open 3.50 | 3/1 open 3.75 | 3/1 open 3.75 | 3/1 open 3.75 | 3/1 open 3.75 | 10/3 Bet365 |
| 3 Bincimbal | 18/1 open 7.00 | 16/1 open 8.50 | 16/1 open 7.50 | 16/1 open 7.50 | 16/1 open 7.50 | 14/1 open 7.50 | 18/1 Bet365 |
| 4 Quite Cheeky | 11/4 open 4.50 | 5/2 open 4.33 | 5/2 open 4.50 | 5/2 open 4.50 | 9/4 open 4.50 | 9/4 open 4.50 | 11/4 Bet365 |
| 5 Rose Moon | 5/4 open 3.50 | 5/4 open 3.00 | 5/4 open 3.00 | 5/4 open 3.00 | 11/8 open 3.00 | 6/5 open 3.00 | 11/8 William Hill |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Al Wathba owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (56) and market confidence (85). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalFavourable weight of 9-3 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 79 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Favourable weight of 9-3 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 92 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 76 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Al Wathba (SR:101, 11/4) is the highest-rated runner in the field by a clear 5 points over Rose Moon (SR:96), and carries a MarkMv:-2 advantage — already running off a mark below his last win, which is a significant positive signal. Appleby's 33% trainer strike rate is the standout stat in this field and Godolphin's operations rarely run without intent. The 2-2-1-4 form sequence shows consistent placed efforts culminating in a fourth last time, but the class context here (rising only one tier) is manageable for a horse of his SR, and the market at 11/4 reflects genuine respect without excessive compression. Rose Moon is the clear danger at 7/4, steaming in 11% with a debut win and Beckett/Ryan combo in form, but Al Wathba's broader experience (four runs vs one) and superior SR tip the balance. Each-way alternative: Quite Cheeky. Main danger: Rose Moon — Rose Moon (SR:96, 7/4) has steamed in 11% in the market, carries Ralph Beckett and Rossa Ryan — both operating at 18-19% strike rates — and a debut win stepping up one class tier suggests genuine progression that the market is pricing accordingly.