Kwiff More Bang For Your Bet Nursery Handicap · 0m7f0y
SR 75 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 70 suggests ability but 3/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 62 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
SR 64 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 59 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 54 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
SR 77 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 42 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.
SR 65 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 57 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 35 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Our Boy Bailey | 9/1 | 8/1 open 8.50 | 17/2 open 8.50 | 17/2 open 8.50 | 17/2 open 9.00 | 17/2 open 9.00 | 9/1 Bet365 |
| 2 Moon Sand | 9/4 open 6.50 | 11/4 open 6.50 | 11/4 open 4.33 | 11/4 open 4.33 | 11/4 | 11/4 open 4.00 | 11/4 Paddy Power |
| 3 Romance | 7/2 open 4.00 | 3/1 open 3.50 | 10/3 open 3.75 | 10/3 open 3.75 | 10/3 open 3.75 | 10/3 open 3.75 | 7/2 Bet365 |
| 4 Margot Mae | 20/1 open 11.00 | 20/1 open 10.00 | 22/1 open 11.00 | 22/1 open 11.00 | 20/1 open 11.00 | 20/1 open 11.00 | 22/1 Coral |
| 5 Gabby Hayes | 10/1 open 10.00 | 15/2 | 9/1 open 9.50 | 9/1 open 9.50 | 17/2 | 17/2 | 10/1 Bet365 |
| 6 Closefield Beau | 12/1 open 12.00 | 11/1 | 12/1 | 12/1 | 12/1 | 11/1 open 13.00 | 12/1 Bet365 |
| 7 Matavai Bay | 18/1 open 15.00 | 16/1 open 15.00 | 18/1 open 15.00 | 18/1 open 15.00 | 16/1 open 15.00 | 16/1 open 15.00 | 18/1 Bet365 |
| 8 Exchange Student | 7/2 open 5.00 | 3/1 open 5.00 | 10/3 open 5.50 | 10/3 open 5.50 | 10/3 open 5.50 | 10/3 open 5.50 | 7/2 Bet365 |
| 9 Scarlet Dream | 28/1 open 17.00 | 33/1 open 17.00 | 33/1 open 19.00 | 33/1 open 19.00 | 28/1 open 19.00 | 33/1 open 19.00 | 33/1 Paddy Power |
| 10 Two Brigade | 11/1 open 8.00 | 12/1 open 7.50 | 12/1 open 7.50 | 12/1 open 7.50 | 11/1 open 7.50 | 11/1 open 7.50 | 12/1 Paddy Power |
| 11 Supreme Act | 18/1 open 15.00 | 16/1 open 15.00 | 18/1 open 15.00 | 18/1 open 15.00 | 18/1 open 15.00 | 16/1 open 15.00 | 18/1 Bet365 |
| 12 Somethingaboutlove | 80/1 open 51.00 | 66/1 open 51.00 | 66/1 open 51.00 | 66/1 open 51.00 | 66/1 open 51.00 | 66/1 open 51.00 | 80/1 Bet365 |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Romance owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (44) and market confidence (84). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalSR 70 suggests ability but 3/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 77 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 75 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 64 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 65 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 59 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 54 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
SR 57 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 62 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Moon Sand (SR:70, 3/1, 9-9) is the most compelling runner on combined signals. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard strikes at 16% career rate with 3,158 runners — a well-resourced operation that does not run juveniles blind in nursery handicaps. The market has shortened 16% since opening, representing meaningful money arriving on a horse in a 12-runner field at an already competitive price. The form string 996 shows the horse has been competitive in recent starts, and the weight of 9-9 sits comfortably in the mid-range of this field. DistFit and GoingFit are both unknown (first-time at this trip/going combination) which is a flag, but the O'Brien yard routinely steps juveniles up in trip with preparation done at home, and the market support strongly suggests connections are confident this trip and ground will suit. Exchange Student (SR:77, 4/1) is the each-way alternative with the highest SR in the field and proven moderate distance and going credentials, though the +11lb mark rise post-last-win is a concern. The danger is Exchange Student, who carries the highest SR at 77 and a slightly friendlier weight of 8-12 versus Moon Sand's 9-9, and whose form of 70041 shows a sharp last-run win. Each-way alternative: Exchange Student. Main danger: Exchange Student — Exchange Student carries the field's highest SR at 77 with proven moderate distance and going credentials (DistFit:~ GoingFit:~), a last-run win in Form:70041, and a 6% market move inward at 4/1 — the weight of 8-12 (3lb less than Moon Sand) is a meaningful advantage if the +11 mark rise proves within his ceiling.