Rhodes Runner arrives on the back of a win last time out and a second two starts back, giving her a consistent recent profile that marks her out as the one to beat here, and she has run over today's trip before, with 135 lb and stall four her conditions to handle.
Form last 6246421
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
80SR79RPR75OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Consistent and threatening, Blondie Larry has finished second in each of his last two starts and, while yet to score, he brings solid placed form into this, has run over today's trip, and our rating of 77 has him well within range; the concern is 73 days off the track.
Form last 6522
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
68SR77RPR73OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 68 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Knock Three Times won three starts back and has run over today's trip, and her rating of 79 suggests she retains the class to threaten here; the concern is that two subsequent finishes outside the places hint her form may have dipped at the wrong moment.
Form last 6224154
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
74SR79RPR73OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 74 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Niewiadoma won one in her last six starts and has run over today's trip, but unplaced efforts in between cloud the picture; fourth last time out offers a crumb of encouragement, and 12 days since her latest run suggests she arrives fresh enough to make her presence felt from stall six.
Form last 6190004
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
47SR75RPR73OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 47 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
Perigord Noir arrives here in decent nick, finishing third last time out and second two starts back, showing consistent placement form, and he has run over today's trip; the risk is he remains winless in recent starts.
Form last 6344023
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
69SR77RPR71OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Wolf's Gallop arrives 45 days fresh and winless in his last five starts, though a pair of thirds three and four starts back shows he can get competitive; that eighth last time out is the concern, and he faces a stiff task ranked sixth of eight here.
Form last 673348
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
68SR73RPR68OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 68 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked seventh of eight on our figures, Naval Cop faces a stiff ask, and a speed rating of 68 does little to inspire confidence in a competitive heat. Third last time out is a positive, and she has run over today's trip and going, but the overall profile makes her hard to fancy at these weights.
Form last 646513
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
70SR72RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 70 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in her last five starts and ranked bottom of the field on our figures, Defiant Dream faces a stiff ask here, though she has run over today's distance and going before and returns on a quick ten-day turnaround carrying 114 lb from stall three.
Form last 692650
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
37SR61RPR53OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 37 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Rhodes Runner owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (44) and market confidence (88). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
5/2Ralph BeckettRhys Clutterbuck
66%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Knock Three Times
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
9/2 · Jamie Osborne✓ Value Signal
Defiant Dream
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
40/1 · Mark Usher◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Rhodes Runner (SR 80, 9/4) is the class standout in this field — the SR gap over the next-best (Knock Three Times at SR 74, Naval Cop at SR 70) is meaningful in a Class 5 nursery. Carrying 9-9, a 10lb pull on Naval Cop and 7lb on the Osborne pair, yet the SR advantage more than justifies the weight. The 9% market shortening confirms stable confidence, and the drop in class (ClassMv:↓1) with Ralph Beckett operating at a strong 19% career strike rate provides the connections edge. Form reading 246421 shows a recent win and consistent competitiveness; the step back to 5f on soft is the only question mark, but DistFit:~ suggests it is not a disqualifying concern.
Each-way alternative: Knock Three Times.
Main danger: Wolf's Gallop — Wolf's Gallop (SR 68, 6/1) carries the lightest competitive weight at 9-2, has steamed in 14% suggesting market intelligence, and Tom Lacey's 19% strike rate matches Beckett's — if the soft ground turns the race into a slog, the low weight could prove decisive.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
DistFit:~ flags a genuine unknown at 5f — Rhodes Runner's form (246421) was built over longer trips, and soft ground at Ffos Las will test stamina reserves that a true 5f horse exploits natively.
Jockey Rhys Clutterbuck at 11% strike rate is the weakest rider in the top half of the field; Saffie Osborne (14%) on Knock Three Times and Callum Hutchinson (12%) on Naval Cop both hold a meaningful…
Naval Cop is drifting in market terms (out 7%, MarkMv:+5 in a positive direction) suggesting Andrew Balding's yard has live support, and at 8-13 Naval Cop receives 10lb — a significant pull that coul…
Knock Three Times ran just 15 days ago (vs Rhodes Runner's 8 days), is track-fresh with headgear flag (p) indicating Osborne has already been optimising the horse, and is shortening 8% — a parallel m…
ShortlistRhodes Runner, Knock Three Times, Wolf's Gallop, Naval Cop