Alpine Wedding comes here off a win, winning last time out 18 days ago and bringing experience of both today's trip and going, while our rating of 95 marks her as a serious threat from stall six; the danger is that her three finishes outside the places in recent starts show she can be inconsistent.
Form last 653541
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
104SR95RPR90OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 104 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Curracloe arrives on the back of a win last time out and has experience of today's distance and going, but a speed rating of 65 and ranking fifth of eight in this field suggest she faces a stiff test against stronger company at the weights.
Form last 61
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
100SR91RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 100 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Damsel In Distress shaped well when third last time out, and her win three starts back underlines she knows how to get the job done; she has run over today's trip and her rating of 104 makes her the one to beat here.
Form last 65143
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
110SR104RPR95OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 110 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Film Set has shown a little ability, finishing second last time out, but her speed rating of 55 and ranking last of eight on our figures make her hard to fancy, and two starts without a win in recent form offers slim encouragement despite the distance experience.
Form last 652
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
68SR68RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 68 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Yet to win in her last six starts, Fine Line at least brings distance and going experience to the table, and her second last time out suggests she retains ability; 128 lb from stall 2 is the picture here, and the official mark of 79 gives her a workable base.
Form last 6007442
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
58SR82RPR79OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 58 suggests ability but 100/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Tosca No Candis won two starts back and steps back to a trip she has run over before, with 29 days between runs suggesting she arrives fresh; the risk is that her recent form either side of that win has been modest.
Form last 655517
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
70SR92RPR92OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 70 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Value Pending won last time out but sits ranked seventh of eight on our figures, with a speed rating of 59 that makes her hard to fancy against this field; she has run over today's trip and returns on a quick turnaround of nine days.
Form last 61
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
78SR80RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 78 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Damsel In Distress owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (61) and market confidence (84). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
7/2Daniel McLoughlinColin Keane
64%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Curracloe
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
6/5 · J. P. Murtagh✓ Value Signal
Lady Patrona
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
33/1 · Mrs J. Harrington◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Alpine Wedding (SR 104, 7/2) carries the strongest SR in this field and has backed that up with a steaming market move of 27% inward — the most significant market support of any runner declared. Her form line 53541 shows a recent win and consistent engagement at this class level, and trainer P. Twomey operates at a 24% strike rate which is comfortably the best of the competitive trainers here. The DistFit:~ and GoingFit:? flags are a mild concern, but the raw SR advantage over the field (6 points clear of Damsel In Distress, 4 points clear of Curracloe) combined with the sharpest money in the race makes her the clear selection.
Each-way alternative: Damsel In Distress.
Main danger: Curracloe — Curracloe (SR 100, 11/10) is the market favourite with a perfect 1-from-1 debut record and Ben Coen booked — the market is pricing in unexposed upside that could see her SR rating as a significant underestimate of her true ability.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Damsel In Distress holds a 6-point SR advantage over Alpine Wedding (110 vs 104) despite being priced identically at 7/2 — the primary analyst's claim of 'strongest SR in the field' is factually inco…
Alpine Wedding's GoingFit:? and DistFit:~ flags are unresolved suitability questions in a 4-runner competitive heat, and her form figure of '1' in the win came sandwiched between a 5 and a 4, suggest…
Curracloe is the 11/10 market leader — significant implied probability — trained by Murtagh off just one run (form:1), suggesting connections have a well-regarded unexposed horse that the market rate…
Film Set (Aidan O'Brien / Ryan Moore, 24% jockey SR) has drifted in 14% to 9/1 despite a powerful handler combination; if the O'Brien yard has targeted this race, Alpine Wedding's market move could b…
ShortlistAlpine Wedding, Damsel In Distress, Curracloe