National Stud "Confined" Handicap Stakes (For Horses With No More Than One Win) · 1m2f
SR 71 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 49 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.
SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 73 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 41 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 71 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Ziggy's Avenger | 11/2 open 4.50 | — | 11/2 open 4.00 | 11/2 open 4.00 | 11/2 open 4.00 | 11/2 open 4.00 | 11/2 Bet365 |
| 2 Flag Of Eva | 20/1 open 17.00 | — | 20/1 open 17.00 | 20/1 open 17.00 | 20/1 open 17.00 | 20/1 open 17.00 | 20/1 Bet365 |
| 3 Madjid | 5/2 open 5.00 | — | 9/4 open 5.00 | 9/4 open 5.00 | 9/4 open 5.00 | 9/4 open 5.00 | 5/2 Bet365 |
| 4 John Harrison | 3/1 open 3.50 | — | 3/1 open 3.75 | 3/1 open 3.75 | 3/1 open 3.75 | 3/1 open 3.75 | 3/1 Bet365 |
| 5 Pipily | 28/1 open 23.00 | — | 25/1 open 21.00 | 25/1 open 19.00 | 25/1 open 21.00 | 25/1 open 21.00 | 28/1 Bet365 |
| 6 Moon Warp | 13/8 open 2.75 | — | 6/4 open 2.75 | 6/4 open 2.75 | 6/4 open 2.75 | 6/4 | 13/8 Bet365 |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
John Harrison owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (41) and market confidence (86). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalSR 71 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 73 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 71 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 49 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Madjid carries the highest SR in the field at 75, is the most heavily backed runner with a 34% market move in — Cieren Fallon at 20% strike rate from 735 career rides is a significant booking — and Harry Charlton's yard runs at a solid 16%. The 5/2 price reflects genuine market confidence rather than default favouritism. The DistFit:- and GoingFit:- are real concerns, but in a Class 5 field of modest ability, the SR edge and strong late support suggest connections believe the horse is ready to show improved form at this trip regardless of historical distance/going negatives. Moon Warp at 13/8 is the principal danger — lighter weight at 9-1 and a small market move in — but 318 days off the track is a significant query mark that Madjid's recent 16-day turnaround (suggesting peak fitness) exploits. Each-way alternative: Moon Warp. Main danger: Moon Warp — Moon Warp carries the lightest weight in the field at 9-1 under Sir Mark Prescott — a master at placing horses returning from long breaks — and the 6% market move in suggests stable confidence that the 318-day layoff is not the problem it appears.